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18th September, 2008
LIVNI – ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER
Just to prove that opinion/exit polls aren’t always accurate, (although I understand that Israeli polls are more inaccurate than most) Tzipi Livni has just scraped through in the poll to replace Ehud Olmert as Israel’s prime minister, despite the talk yesterday that she was several percentage points ahead!
‘Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has won the leadership of the governing Kadima party, putting her on track to succeed Ehud Olmert as prime minister.
Ms Livni beat Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz by just 431 votes, or 1.1%, the central electoral commission said.’
Mr Olmert phoned his foreign minister to congratulate her and promise his full co-operation after she appeared on track to win with about 48% of the vote. Then the balloon slowly deflated as the results rolled in, our correspondent says.
According to the final results released by Kadima, Ms Livni won the election with 43.1%, or 16,936 votes. Mr Mofaz, a former defence minister and chief of staff of the Israeli military, came in a close second with 42%, or 16,505 votes.
3rd March, 2008
GAZA / ISRAEL – NO MORE ‘GUILTY’ ISRAEL
After the worst outbreak of attacks and counter-attacks in years, and despite ongoing talks between regional and international leaders and peace envoys, things may be coming to a head. Despite international condemnation of Israel for the many deaths resulting from their response to daily attacks from within Gaza, Israel is on the verge of a full invasion, perhaps to re-take Gaza completely. The Palestinian militants’ less focussed rocket attacks with resultant fewer deaths, but daily danger, was never going to be a situation remaining unchallenged for long. This article, by Yossi Klein Halevi, expands on this. Excerpt:
JERUSALEM — Within the coming weeks, the Israeli army may re-invade the Gaza Strip in an attempt to stop the rocket attacks on Israeli towns and, perhaps, topple its Islamist Hamas government. If it happens, it will have come after long hesitation and anguished debate. Even we Israelis who once wanted nothing more than to leave Gaza forever now realize that we may have no choice but to return, at least until relative quiet is restored to our border.
In the early 1990s, while serving as a reservist soldier in Gaza, I became a guilty Israeli.
PEACE. STILL AN IMPOSSIBLE DREAM?
That’s what they called it, when Tony Blair first took up the post of Middle East Envoy. Perhaps they were right.
My inspiration for the above video – “The Impossible Dream” by Jack Jones
15th October, 2007
BLAIR: “Olmert& Abbas can make a deal despite weakness”
At the end of his recent trip to the region, the Quartet’s Middle East envoy told Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper in an interview that both leaders would be strengthened if they managed to reach a deal at a U.S.-sponsored peace conference near Washington next month.
“People say to me the status of both is too weak to reach a deal, but to my mind that is not the issue.”
Blair warned Israel that failure to reach a deal with the current Palestinian leadership would leave the conflict unresolved for many years.
“If you cannot reach a deal with the current Palestinian leadership … then the Palestinian with whom you will be able to reach an agreement has not yet been born,” Blair said.
He said that he took on the role of helping resolve the conflict in June because of “my sense of a mission to resolve what I believe is the most important conflict in the world at the beginning of the 21st century.”
He said he had no fear of failure: “There are people who think I am mad that I chose to endanger my reputation in a place which delivers only failures. But between ourselves, what’s the point of being a politician if you don’t take risks?
“Well, if it’s a risk-taker they need, they’ve got one. It could well be that the next risk-taker willing to take on Blair’s present task, to paraphrase, “has not yet been born”.
11th October, 2007
A report from Pakistan’s The News International indicates the possibility of momentous moves in the state of Jerusalem. The story, however, contradicts its own headline. No wonder Mr Blair keeps his counsel.
| New Israeli moves |
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| Thursday, October 11, 2007 Israel appears to be ready to hand over parts of Arab East Jerusalem to the Palestinians — minus the Old City, which also includes the Al Aqsa Mosque. On the other hand, however, it has ordered the confiscation Arab lands outside East Jerusalem. With the “offer” to transfer some districts in a city the Palestinians plan to make the capital of their future state, the new Israeli move looks like Israel’s preparation to divide the occupied West Bank into two. And since the developments came just before this week’s visit to the region by former British prime minister Tony Blair, the ‘Quartet’s’ Middle East envoy, they are a sign that despite its claims to the contrary the government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert plans no change in Israeli policy and conduct with regard to the Occupied Territories. More significant than this timing is the fact the confiscation orders have come weeks before the expected international peace summit sponsored by Washington, which is likely to be held in November in the United States.The 272 acres of land to be appropriated, much of it private property, are in four Palestinian villages situated between East Jerusalem and a Jewish settlement, which is one of the many “facts on the ground” created around the Arab sector of the city, which Israel has incorporated into its territory since Jerusalem is Israel’s “eternal capital”. Part of the confiscated Palestinian land is meant to be used in the construction of a 15.5-kilometre road planned by Israel. According to the Israeli army, the road is being built in order to improve the quality of life for Palestinians, but Palestinians themselves see the construction as part of a project to end what little Arab territorial continuity remains in that part of the West Bank. The new Israeli moves are not only a death knell to the tattered peace process in the Middle East, they put the summit in mortal danger. Will the United States allow that? |
10th October, 2007
Listen to this audio report of the high-level meetings in Jerusalem & Ramallah in the last 36 hours. Developments over Hamas’s “willingness” to move on the long term position of Gaza, and Israeli sensitivities explain why Mr Blair himself has made no statements.
[Pic above: Blair & Israeli President Ehud Olmert ]
[Pic right: With Palestine President Mahmoud Abbas ]
9th October, 2007
BLAIR IN MID EAST – OUT OF THE FIRING LINE!
Well away from the election-that-never-was, and keeping his thoughts to himself, Tony Blair is back in Ramallah today. Here he again meets with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, at his office at the West Bank city of Ramallah on Tuesday, Oct. 9, 2007.
Israel says it’s ready to hammer out a deal that would give Palestinians a state on land it captured 40 years ago. But its unwillingness to give up settlements, as reflected by the thousands of apartments planned and under construction in the West Bank, could have momentous implications for peacemaking amid a major U.S.-backed push.
4th October, 2007
GREATER ROLE FOR BLAIR? Snub to Rice?
Tony Blair will need to use all his diplomatic and political skills over the next few months, if he is not to be accused of up-staging Condoleezza Rice (and by implication, President Bush). It seems almost 80 US senators, including all those standing for president, are calling for Blair to take a more prominent role in the Middle East peace-keeping negotiations.
Calling for greater Arab support for the peace process ahead of the international conference the US is planning for November, they caution that whatever comes out of the meeting will be vulnerable to spoilers such as Syria and Hamas.
“Simply saying no to Hamas without planning for the consequences is a likely ticket to new problems,” they warn of the US and Israeli policy that has shut Hamas out of negotiations and participation in international forums.
They acknowledge, though, that “the most difficult problem in preparing any international meeting and, indeed, in following up on that meeting, will be the role of Hamas.”
To that end and to increase the likelihood of successful implementation, the five former officials suggests immediately planning a second conference, one that could hold out possibility of inviting Hamas should the Islamist group abide by certain principles.
They also suggest intensified diplomatic engagement by someone such as Quartet envoy Tony Blair – characterizing Rice’s brief trips to the Middle East as “critical” but “insufficient” – and that whatever agreement emerges be approved by the UN Security Council.
2nd October, 2007
BLUEPRINT & FROM BLAIR: DECLARATION OF PRINCIPLES
It seems that Tony Blair is going to be busy over the next month or so. Five former senior U.S. government officials have released a blueprint for a successful Mideast peace parley.
The group, with close ties to several recent U.S. administrations, produced a six-page, nine-point plan for the Bush administration’s planned Middle East peace conference likely to be held next month in Washington.
Among the plan’s many recommendations are clear goals for dealing with the role of Hamas in the talks, a plan for future talks, not allowing the meeting’s success to be determined by which Arab nations participate and a call for former British Prime Minister and now Quartet envoy Tony Blair to work full-time to draft a Declaration of Principles for the talks, which would be endorsed by the U.N. Security Council.
Read the article here
1st October, 2007
COMMUNICATING ON THE EASTERN FRONT
UN VIDEO PRESS CONFERENCE
You can watch a video of the press conference at the UN here. Tony Blair speaks at length from around 30 minutes into the video and for the last four or five minutes too. I wasn’t too impressed by the Secretary General’s and Condoleezza Rice’s reply to the question of the ‘omission’ as invitees to the November meeting of some key states – notably Palestine & Lebanon. Seems that the Secretary General didn’t know or was confused about which meeting they were discussing. But Ms Rice didn’t actually clarify things. They must have expected THAT question, surely?
( A little aside: I do sometimes wonder how our envoy would communicate with his hands tied behind his back. Very expressive hands. Not a criticism; just an observation. No need to change! Expressive is good!)
As it happens, the update seems out of order from the entry I wrote earlier (see below – Western Front). Purely co-incidental. In the absence of Tony Blair’s pearls of wisdom, I’m inserting this latest YouTube video, in which he is interviewed on the Aljazeera Channel.
There are no English sub-titles, and since my Arabic is as good as my Double Dutch, I can’t help you out here. But this might be of interest to Arabic speakers. I can hear a few familiar words, so it’s pretty clear what he’s discussing. “Hamas” seems to be interesting the interviewer. And Mr Blair says something about the Palestinians being prepared to exist alongside an Israeli state. So I suppose it’s not anything we don’t already know.
Any Arabic speaker who’d like to let us know more detail of what is being discussed, please get in touch by commenting at end of page.
30th September, 2007
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
Isn’t he just great? Brilliant? I mean, really? Blair knows exactly how to get the attention. Just keep quiet and they’ll all wonder what the hell he’s up to. Well some might say that. And some cynical sorts – oh, yes, we have them here too! – think that he’s keeping quiet so as not to remind the voters that he ever existed. Then like Labour at Bournemouth, happy bunnies all, they can vote for that new guy, er … whatsisname – Scottish-ish. All as though nothing in the last ten years was anything to do with him.
Whatever. It’s politics. And Blair is too big a man to harbour hurt feelings over the airbrushing he got at conference. His aim is to help Brown get re-elected. Then no-one can say that Blair made the party SO unelectable, for EVEN the saintly Brown. And, anyway, it’ll only be for one term – two at the VERY most. If you think that this country is going one-party-state, forget it! So, like all the other records he already holds, Tony Blair is not about to lose the “winning elections” label to Brown or anyone for that matter. Who needs pride within such a small place as the Labour party? Bigger fish to fry.
Meanwhile Mr Blair held several behind-closed-doors meetings last week at the UN meeting in New York. Diplomacy in middle East negotiations. Another reason for keeping shtoom.
And he got together with a couple of presidents, while he was out west, or east if you’re way out west. A friendly chat, and maybe a few pointers on how his Blair Foundation might operate?
[Pic: Old friends. Tony meets Bill at the AGM of the Clinton Global Initiative in New York]
27th September, 2007
ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS PICK THE WRONG VEHICLE!
The Telegraph reports that police captured four illegal immigrants in a police car park when it was realised they had stowed away in a car being delivered to Tony Blair! And now the car has been returned to BMW in Germany because “its security has been compromised”.
You have to laugh! The only way we can catch some ‘wrongdoers’ is if they back the wrong horse. Wonder how many of us fall into that category. Whoops!
26th September, 2007
…………………………………………………………………………………
UN & BLAIR – AND PROPHECIES: The end of the world is nigh
I expect there will be more news tomorrow, since NY is 5 hours behind us. But there are already a few interesting little updates on Tony Blair at the UN.
Try this one for size, especially if you are religious – and aren’t we ALL these days? But for a REALLY interesting thought, you need to go to the American Jimmy de Young’s ‘prophetic’ site.
‘Talk about peace in the Middle East and the upcoming conference does fit the prophetic scenario that is found in Bible prophecy. Ezekiel 38:8, 11 speak of a time when Israel will be at peace, at least for a period of time before the Middle East erupts into full-blown war. Daniel 9:27 reveals that one man, the Antichrist, will bring about this long hoped for peace and the base for the Antichrist is the revived Roman Empire, the EU of today.
Talk about peace in the Middle East is indeed setting the stage for Bible prophecy to be fulfilled.’
I can’t quite make out if Blair is the False Prophet who’ll get his comeuppance or the AntiChrist who’ll definitely get his!
Well, Mr de Young, that would definitely be some kind of punishment for the efforts of this, one of the most God-fearing of today’s Christian political leaders. Following up from that, I found several sites which left me feeling flummoxed as to which century it’s all supposed to happen in. So, since I don’t take the bible too literally – and I know a woman called Eve – and it’s definitely not HER fault – I’m not losing too much sleep over this. Nor should Mr Blair.
Mr de Young also says this:
Even some Arab leaders who have agreed to attend the conference say now they may not join the conference because to date it seems it would be a waste of time. The Arab League’s request for the Quartet to sponsor the conference instead of only the US would position Tony Blair, the Quartet’s Middle East Peace Envoy, in the catbird seat.
Well, he’s used to being the big cat. Always had to make a lot of decisions – seemingly on his own – if yesterday’s Labour party conference is anything to go by! With friends like these, no wonder Mr Blair prefers to spend time in the Middle East; it’s safer there. Brown’s New, New Labour has NO idea, imho!
And then there’s this page with plenty of useful links.
The long and the short is that they are all hanging on The Word – Blair’s that is. Remember him? The forgotten one at the party conference.
25th September, 2007
FREE SPEECH IN THE LAND OF THE FREE – ‘Me? Djihaad? Na!’
A few other interesting characters in New York at the moment, apart from Blair and Bush. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad certainly knows how to get publicity. Appearing at the Columbia University, the holocaust denying “academic” (his words, not mine) was introduced in rather a critical fashion. The smiling Mr A. must have taken great delight at being able to appeal to western democrats in the land of the free. I expect he’ll reciprocate and ask Mr Bush to come and argue HIS viewpoint in Iran.
By the way, in case you hadn’t noticed – ‘Ahmadinejad’ is a pithy anagram: Me? Djihaad? Na!
BLAIR: “Real hope”
Mr Blair said at his meeting at the UN in New York last night that he has an “ambitious but achievable” plan to get the Middle East peace process back on track by the end of the year.
“Our aim is to get to the end of this year with real hope back in the political process, with a sense of what a Palestinian state would look like, with the capabilities of government, and with things improving on the ground,” Mr Blair said last night.
“Those are ambitious objectives for the next few months, but I think they are achievable if the right will is there.”
He added: “There have got to be things happening on the ground that give hope to people, in Israel and on the Palestinian side, that their lives are going to improve, that things are going to change. The prospect of an improvement in their living standards and their ability to live normal lives.”
24th September, 2007
Yesterday Tony Blair reported back to the Quartet prior to Wednesday’s UN general assembly meeting. The Quartet – the United States, the European Union and Russia came together to hear a report from their new Middle East envoy, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
Mr. Blair praised the renewed momentum toward solving the conflict and laid out his goals for the next few months. “Our aim, if you like, is to get to the end of this year, the end of the period of the next few months, with real hope back in political process, with a sense of what this Palestinian state could look like in terms of capability and governance and with things improving on ground. Those are, in one sense, quite ambitious objectives for the next few months but I think they are achievable if the right will and the right focus is there. And certainly it is important that it is,” he said.
US Secretary Rice said:
The United States says it plans to invite several Arab states, including Syria, to an international conference intended to jumpstart Middle East peace talks. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told reporters Sunday that countries which attend the meeting must be committed to seeing a Palestinian state living peacefully alongside Israel.
22nd September, 2007
BLAIR REPORTING BACK TO BUSH
After his lengthy visit to the Middle East Mr Blair has been back home for a bit, and is now off again to New York for the UN meeting. Meeting Condoleezza Rice tomorrow, Sunday, and President Bush on Monday, he will be reporting back on progress so far.
So, perhaps we’ll hear a little more about Mr Blair’s visit and progress as the week goes on.
13th September, 2007
ON THIS DAY
PREVIOUS AGREEMENT ON THE ISRAELI/PALESTINIAN CONFLICT
Fourteen years ago today – on 13th September, 1993
- Clinton: “The Peace of The Brave”
- Rabin: “Enough of blood and tears”
- Arafat: “Difficult decision … was one that required great and exceptional courage”
On This Day – 1993 – Watch President Clinton in Washington as the Prime Minister of Israel, Yitzhak Rabin, and the PLO leader, Yasser Arafat, shake hands on peace deal. The Israeli and Palestinians came to this accord themselves – a new alignment of moderate forces against rejectionist ones.
The BBC’s John Simpson recalls an earlier deal made in 1979 between Egypt’s Sadat and Israel’s Begin to sign the Camp David Accords. It was to cost Sadat his life, assassinated two years later by the Independent Organisation for the Liberation of Egypt. Simpson, in 1993, refers to Arafat putting his life on the line. In fact it was the Israeli prime minister, Rabin, who was to be killed two years after this agreement, also by his own. Feelings run deep on ALL sides. This may be an intractable quest, but as Mr Blair said in his retirement speech, “at least in life, give the impossible a try”.
Common elements in these political assassinations:
- Two years after an agreement is signed
- Killed by gunshot
- Killed by one’s own side
It’s also noteworthy that the intervals between the peace efforts since 1979 have been 14 years: 1979 – 1993 . Assuming we have one further agreement THIS year, that’ll be three at 14 year intervals. Is that a good sign or a bad?
[Pic: Surrounded by press and heavy security on his first visit to Ramallah, Tony Blair, with Palestinian PM Salam Fayyad to his left]
16th September, 2007
SAUDI: DOUBTS CAST ON MIDDLE EAST CONFERENCE
Saudi Arabia has said that a US-backed Middle East peace conference will be pointless unless it tackles key issues and sets a timetable for a final deal.
The Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, said a failure to do so would result in endless negotiations.
And other regional leaders are expressing similar concerns. Perhaps Mr Blair won’t be able to sit back and watch the football after all this weekend.
UPPING THE ANTI
As they up the anti in the Middle East, with Syria officially complaining about a violation of its airspace following Israel’s Air Force’s operation on September 6th , things are not getting any less tense.
The Israel National News site reports – Excerpts here:
Israel’s military censor remains vigilant within the country, forcing Israel-based press to limit reporting to the reprinting of foreign reports on the shadowy operation. Israel’s largest daily Yediot Acharonot reported only that the mission was titled Operation Orchard. Local press circles claim to have knowledge that Israel delivered a stunning blow to Syria, which was caught completely by surprise and suffered heavy losses.
The Korean Nuclear Material Story
The leading hypothesis now is that a shipment of material for a Syrian nuclear project from North Korean was the target of the air strike. That possibility was bolstered by a report Saturday in the Washington Post documenting the arrival of a vessel containing components of nuclear technology three days earlier in the region, before the Israeli planes struck.
According to the report, the shipment was labeled “cement” and the nascent nuclear facility as an “agricultural research center.” Israeli intelligence identified it, however, as a facility to “extract uranium from phosphates.” The Post said that secrecy surrounding the mission was even extended to the pilots taking part, who were not all briefed as to the full scope of the mission. The pilots who actually struck the facility, it says, only after takeoff.
Syria’s Ambassador to the US Imad Moustapha denied that report to Newsweek, calling it “absolutely, totally, fundamentally ridiculous and untrue.”
US officials quoted by both the Washington Post and Fox News have confirmed the North Korean connection, however, and say that both North Korea and the nuclear proliferation network run by Pakistan’s Abdul Qadeer Khan have transferred to Syria information, technology and uranium-enrichment equipment.
An investigative report commissioned by Haaretz found that the SS Al-Hamed, a ship reported by different trade web sites as flying the North Korean flag, arrived in Syria during the time in question. Details of the ship and the fact that it was flying a North Korean flag were subsequently removed from the sites.
Weapons From Iran For Hizbullah
Last Wednesday, the New York Times reported that the targets struck by Israel were weapons caches being dispatched to Hizbullah in Lebanon by Iran.
Syria’s UN Ambassador dismissed that claim as well. “This is blah blah. This is nonsense, this is an unfounded statement. It is not up to the Israelis or anyone else to assess what we have in Syria,” he said. “There was no target, they dropped their munitions. They were running away after they were confronted by our air defense.”
CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, citing extensive unnamed sources, said that IDF ground forces took part in the operation, marking the targets. After the strikes, she said, there was a “big hole in the desert.”
Dry Run For Bombing Iran
According to the British Observer, the Israeli operation “involved as many as eight aircraft, including Israel’s most ultra-modern F-15s and F-16s equipped with Maverick missiles and 500 pound bombs.”
The operation, the report speculates based on Turkish security sources, was a dry-run of a bombing mission that would destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Turkey’s security and intelligence were “in the loop” according to the Observer report.
Just a Warning
The British Arabic-language Al-Arabiya newspaper has quoted unnamed sources from NATO’s headquarters in Brussels saying the goal of the Israeli operation was simply “a warning and an experiment.” The sources said Israel was surprised by Syria’s decision to publicize the overflights.
Syria’s Response
In his interview with Newsweek, Syrian Ambassador Moustapha said that Israel would “pay a price” for the operation.
Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister Faysal Mekdad was then reported to have announced that Syria was not planning a military response to the Israeli operation. On Saturday, he suddenly denied reports that he had said any such thing, ostensibly opening up the possibility of a Syrian reprisal.
After a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Mekdad said: “Syria possesses the means to respond in ways that will preserve its position of power.”
Syria filed a complaint with the United Nations over Israeli “aggressions and violation of sovereignty.” No mention was made of any targets bombed.
14th September, 2007
YOU CAN RELAX – HE’S BACK HOME NOW, I THINK!
Having managed, uniquely amongst recent British Prime Minister to meld from one leading world position to another without us noticing the joins – (the UK’s PM > International Middle East Envoy) – Blair is returning, quietly, to praise all round. And well he might.
Managing to keep all the disparate elements onside without too much crying of “foul” is in itself an achievement.
But I don’t know why it’s surprising. This is clearly what he does so naturally. Whether he has seen all he wishes to see on this his first serious trip to the region, or got word to the unreachable through third parties, it is clear that Blair knows the rules. You need to be inclusive right from the start. Somehow or other he will have got word to Hamas too that he wants to hear what they are looking for in a settlement; you can be sure of that.
Common sense, basically. He didn’t spend all those years working to bring settlement in Northern Ireland without learning a trick or two. Would Sinn Fein (IRA) now be in government in Northern Ireland if Blair hadn’t gained their trust and worked through the deals with them as well as with ALL other parties to the dispute?
The Independent, not exactly a great friend of Mr Blair’s in recent years, is full of praise for his efforts, thus far.
13th September, 2007
Blair Missing – PRESUMED … BUSY!
(Panic [or Rejoice] not, dear reader)
THE INVISIBLE (AND SILENT) MAN
Isn’t it quiet without Tony Blair? Well, he has an excuse. He’s busy out there in one or other of those middle east lands. Negotiating is hardly something you can do from the rooftops; not if you want to win friends and influence people.
He hasn’t really said much over the last ten days or so, and we shouldn’t expect much more when he comes home in the next couple of days. Got to keep the powder dry for the Quartet’s ears first. Lots of toes not to be stepped on.
It’s just that it’s all so boring here without the great man! And even watching the chickens coming home to roost for Brown doesn’t satisfy those of us who resent the day real leadership was snatched from us.
BROWN WOES
More foot and mouth, after Brown told us the government had handled it “so much better than last time”; the unions are up in arms over the EU ‘constitution’ and threatening strikes over their staged pay deal; there’s confusion over whether we’re still the USA’s staunchest ally or not. Even with all of this making the August/September season more interesting than usual, we miss Blair’s way of getting to the heart of the matter.
Well, I do anyway. So, what is the news from the Mid-East envoy?
BLAIR WOOS PALESTINE
[Blair with Palestine negotiator Eraeket] 
In Jericho, West Bank (Reuters) – Middle East envoy Tony Blair, seeking to bolster Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking efforts, said on Wednesday it was critical to expand the capabilities of Palestinian security forces.
There’s obviously a good reason for this. Israel is reluctant to set a strict timetable for any peace moves after a U.S.-sponsored conference without more guarantees that Palestinian forces can prevent attacks on Israel if the Jewish state eases or ends its occupation of the West Bank.
The debate over deadlines comes amid signs of progress this week in talks between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas over the outlines of an agreement that would be presented at the conference, to be held near Washington as early as November 15, or later that month.
Israeli officials said Olmert would be open to rough timelines as long as the Israeli steps are tied to reciprocal moves by the Palestinians on matters like disarming militants, as called for under the long-stalled U.S. “roadmap” peace plan.
After touring a Palestinian police training facility in the West Bank city of Jericho, Blair told reporters: “We’ve got to try to build the capability of the Palestinian forces.”
“This training facility is a really important part of that so we’ve got to give it every support,” the former British prime minister said after watching recruits quell a mock riot.
The public comments were Blair’s first since arriving in the region last week on his second visit as special envoy for the Quartet of Middle East mediators – the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations.
The United States has stepped up efforts to bolster Abbas’s forces since Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip in June.
TIMELINES
Palestinian officials see timelines as a way of pressuring Israel to take difficult steps that would help them sell any agreement to the Palestinian public.
Israeli officials caution that setting dates that risk not being met only raise frustration on both sides.
“These are negotiations and, in the end, you compromise,” said an official close to Olmert.
Olmert and Abbas agreed on Monday to appoint negotiating teams to try to narrow differences over final-status issues like borders, the future of Jerusalem and Palestinian refugees.
“There has been progress. Both sides know they need success and they need a document,” said another senior Israeli official familiar with the deliberations. But the official added that the conference was “one step in a very long process”.
A major sticking point, the official said, was over Abbas’s call for deadlines for implementing any agreements. They want a tight and strict schedule for implementation,” the Israeli official said. “Naturally we can’t commit to a tight and strict schedule.”
An Israeli Foreign Ministry official said Israel wanted any timetables to be “performance-based”. “A timeline that ignores performance is not effective and when you don’t meet a specific target date it can only create more problems and frustration,” the official said. We believe that artificial timelines have been just that. We’re very much supportive of the sort of timelines in the roadmap, which means its a performance-based process.”
Seems complicated, doesn’t it? No wonder he’s not too chatty about it all. But the timelines and deadlines talk has the Blair mark all over it. He used it to great effect in Northern Ireland, where it focused minds.
6th September, 2007
BLAIR KEEPS OWN COUNSEL IN HIGH STAKES GAME
The Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas (pictured above with Tony Blair) is concerned that Hamas’s approach will lead the Israeli/Palestinian settlement nowhere. The Head of the Palestinian force is now working alongside Israel to pressurise Hamas supporters to come on board, with Tony Blair. And many Palestinians have handed in their arms, in order to help out Abbas in his search for peace. High stakes for Blair, Abbas and Israel, as many Palestinians say that if the peace process fails this time, their prospects are worse, much worse than they were prior.
But some Hamas supporters are convinced, or are peddling the story, perhaps as a negotiating tool, that the whole Middle East “peace process” is a cover for an imminent attack by the USA on Iran or Syria.
‘Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has begun his new job as Middle East envoy.
Mr Blair arrived in Jerusalem last night for talks on economic and security matters with both Jewish and Palestinian leaders.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will need all the support Tony Blair and the international community can provide as he struggles with the Islamist militant group Hamas which now controls Gaza.
Mr Blair has been talking to Israel about what it can do to bolster Fatah chief Mr Abbas.
It is hoped Mr Abbas will in turn be able to convince Palestinians that he and not Hamas offers the best way forward.
Israeli government spokesperson Mir Eisen says under Hamas, Israel’s future is short-lived.
“With Abbas, they will get a free independent viable Palestinian state sooner rather than later,” he said.
“With Hamas they will receive endless war. Israel isn’t going anywhere.”‘
Read Hamas’s damning of Blair’s quest:
HAMAS downplays Blair MidEast Peace Mission
“WAR ON THE WAY”
Islamic Hamas movement on Wednesday downgraded the Middle East tour of Tony Blair as the international Quartet envoy on Mideast peace and said it was part of a plan to wage a war in the region.
Salah al-Bardaweel, spokesman for Hamas’ parliamentary bloc, told reporters in Gaza “this tour can not score a breakthrough because there are no true intentions for peace and there is no peace process at all.”
Instead, “we believe a dangerous operation, like attacking Syria or Iran, is being arranged,” he said.
“There is a complete plan preparing for a war in the region and pushing the Arab nations for free normalization with Israel,” he continued.
Al-Bardaweel also slammed the former British prime minister, saying Blair “who has failed to manage his country’s internal and foreign policy wants now to succeed in managing the Palestinian and Arabic causes.”
The Quartet, which groups the United Nations, the European Union, the United States and Russia, rejects dealing with Hamas unless it recognizes Israel and lays down arms.
The international mediation body sponsors aid to the moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas who is engaged in power struggle with Hamas.
TOURISTS DELIGHT
He may not be flavour of the month at home or with Hamas, but these foreign tourists at the church of the Nativity in Bethlehem seem delighted to be sharing a visit with the former British Prime Minister, to the reputed birthplace of Christ.
If only he had Hamas eating out of his hand like this
With all the evident lack of trust from some in the Middle East, Mr Blair will need to bring all his negotiating skills to the table. It is clear, though, that the leaders he has met so far have been impressed by his grasp of the issues, how well he listens and absorbs.
Don’t expect much of a progress report for some time yet, possibly after the New York meeting. But it seems that Mr Blair realises he will need to make inroads by using the all-inclusive methods of all-party discussions, that he used in Northern Ireland.
Common sense, really. He’s used to supping with the devil.
Meanwhile, GB/PM gets on with working out when he can go to the country now that opinion polls are showing him only one percentage point ahead of the Tories.
And with the mess that the Tories are still in, you have to wonder why!
Honeymoon almost over?
[Pic: Mr Blair listens intently to a priest at the Church of the Nativity, Bethlehem]
4th September, 2007
BLAIR BEGINS WORK IN EARNEST IN MIDDLE EAST
With Tony Blair doing the rounds of the Middle East at the beginning of his two-week tour as International envoy, what can he hope to achieve? Well, he can make a start, but surely we’re not looking for immediate results of substance? It took him ten years to sort out Northern Ireland!
The Telegraph, like all negative thinkers, seems to think that Mr Blair has problems because he couldn’t move into the old colonial Government House in Jerusalem because of his large entourage – all the bodyguards, I suppose – but instead has to put up with the American Colony hotel, where they will be disturbed by continual calls to prayer.
Awww. Pity.
No problem for Mr Blair; just like home in Connaught Square!
There’s also the inability, so far, of finding someone acceptable to co-chair the Palestinian side of the negotiating team in a forum of leading business people from both Israeli and Palestinian sides.
You know, I despair at the “stories” some of our papers are padded out with. Have these people no idea what “real issues” are?
NUCLEAR POWER? NOT ME, GUV!
And meanwhile Iran now claims to have over 3,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium for its “domestic nuclear power” programme. Go here to view Ahmadinejad video.
THE HELSINKI AGREEMENT
Meanwhile Iraqi Shias and Sunnis have been secretly meeting with Northern Ireland politicians and others to pick their brains on conflict resolution. Good.
Ask Mr Blair while you’re at it. He wrote the book.
Know as The Helsinki Agreement, they seem to have come up with something useful to start with. Hopefully it will help in the search for some sort of settlement in Iraq and amongst the various interests.
2nd September, 2007
TROOPS OUT? MAYBE – SORT OF! AND WHOSE FAULT IS IT ANYWAY?!
As relations between the UK and the USA deteriorate steadily in the war of words and troops over Iraq, we’re supposed to be proud that we are exiting (slowly). Well, I don’t know about you, but I’m as ashamed as Menzies Campbell, great patriot and protector of the protectors SHOULD be.
See my “Troops Out – Oct/Nov Election” page
Mr Blair might well be turning in his (political) grave, if he wasn’t so busy sorting out other little issues.
BLAIR IN MIDDLE EAST FOR TWO WEEK TOUR
Today Tony Blair arrived in Kuwait at the start of a two-week tour of the Middle East to push ahead with efforts to end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict festering at the heart of the region for 60 years. Blair will take the findings of his visit — his second to the region as Middle East envoy for the international Quartet — to the group’s next meeting in New York on Sept 23. “During the trip Mr Blair will have detailed discussions with Israelis and Palestinians on a range of economic and security issues,” the former British prime minister’s spokesman said. “He will then use the New York discussions at the end of the month to set out his initial thinking.” The meeting of the Quartet, which includes the United States, European Union, United Nations and Russia, comes less than two months before a planned international conference for Middle East peace called by U.S. President George W. Bush. The conference is expected to take place in mid-November but the United States has given few details of the agenda, raising Arab fears that there will be little time for a concerted international effort to bridge gaping differences. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said on Sunday more efforts should be made to ensure that the conference results in a framework agreement for peace with Israel including a timeline for implementation, rather than a vague statement of principles. Israel has said the bar should not be set too high. It has been years since Israel and the Palestinians last discussed issues at the root of their conflict — final borders of a Palestinian state, the fate of Palestinian refugees and the status of Jerusalem. Any move forward has also been complicated by the fact that the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas this year seized control of the Gaza Strip, while Abbas controls the West Bank. Blair is expected to meet the pro-Western leaders of regional powerhouses Saudi Arabia and Egypt, as well as Kuwait, before arriving in Israel on Tuesday, his spokesman said. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Jordan comprise a group set up this year to promote an Arab offer to Israel of normal relations in return for full withdrawal from lands occupied by the Jewish state in the 1967 Middle East war. The proposal also calls for a just settlement for Palestinians displaced by the creation of Israel in 1948.
While at Kuwait, I wonder if Mr Blair will feel able to call into the airport at Basra to thank the soldiers, AGAIN. Somehow, I doubt it. In this world of political sensibilities, jealousies and the symbols of power he wouldn’t want to upset the apple-cart now, would he?
And yet, I’m sure the troops would appreciate it.
31st August, 2007
UN MEETING – ANY BROWN WILL DO!
Lord Malloch-Brown, he of the ‘not joined at the hip’ jibe regarding Gordon Brown and President Bush, will be taking GB/PM’s place at the UN meeting on September 25th. Mr G. Brown could not possibly attend, as he needs to be at the Labour Party conference that week, to give his first speech as ‘leader’. We are all, well, some of us, looking forward with bated breath, to his speech. However, Tony Blair, in his role as Middle East envoy, WILL be in New York. If the other delegations attending need it, that will be the time for comparisons to be made. Something tells me the good Lord won’t outshine the former great PM in political nous, contribution or presentation. And not to put too fine a point on it, could it possibly be the case that GB/PM is happy with the clash of dates. He knows how effortlessly TB/ex-PM shines, does he not?
And I wonder whether Blair will be missed more at the Labour party conference, than will GB/PM at the UN.
Read full report here. Excerpt follows:
‘Lord Malloch-Brown, the junior minister who ruffled feathers by proclaiming himself the “wise eminence” at the Foreign Office, will now take the Prime Minister’s seat at a UN summit of world leaders, diplomats say.
The former UN second-in-command, who was elevated to a peerage and given a seat in the Cabinet by Gordon Brown, will represent Britain at a Security Council summit of heads of state and government in New York on September 25 alongside such leaders as President Sarkozy of France and possibly President Bush.
The plan has provoked grumbles at UN headquarters that Britain is breaking diplomatic protocol by sending a junior minister to such a high-level event. Mr Brown does not intend to travel to New York for the annual UN session this year because it clashes with the Labour Party conference. Sources say Mr Brown jokingly explained to Ban Ki Moon, the UN Secretary-General, when he visited UN headquarters this month that he could not risk missing the Labour Party conference because then he might not be Prime Minister next year.’
Awww. Pity.
30th August, 2007
No sooner had I mentioned that we have an invisible envoy than we hear that the Quartet will meet in New York on September 23rd along with Mr Blair. Whether he will visit the Middle East in the meantime, to have something solid to report back to this meeting is anyone’s guess. I’d place a small bet on such a likelihood, were I a betting man. I DO hope he won’t tell the rest of us, though, until afterwards.
UN chief Ban Ki-moon will host a meeting of the four major powers pressing for peace in the Middle East on September 23 in New York, a UN official said.
Michael Williams, the UN’s special coordinator for the Middle East peace process, told the UN Security Council that the quartet’s special envoy, former British prime minister Tony Blair, would attend the talks. The meeting will take place two days before the UN General Assembly begins its annual debate. The quarter includes the United States, United Nations, European Union and Russia.
29th August, 2007
THE INVISIBLE ENVOY
It used to be the Invisible Chancellor; now it’s the Invisible Envoy. Fine; I’m happy with that. No news is good news.
It is expected that in October a joint Israeli-Palestinian economic council will be launched, in Tel Aviv, in the presence of Olmert, Abbas and international Mideast envoy Tony Blair.
Watch Blair on his task for The Quartet & Peace in the Middle East
9th August, 2007HOLIDAY & FESTIVAL TIMEHalf way through the second week of his holiday in Barbados, Mr Blair has been discussing the Middle East and his task as envoy with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.He should enjoy the rest of his holiday now, though something tells me he’ll find it hard to completely switch off.And meanwhile in Edinburgh, where Blair was born, there are two shows on Tony Blair – the musical. Didn’t take them long to spot the star quality.THE GREAT MIDDLE EAST PROCESS SCAMTony Blair has NO chance in his Envoy job, without a change is some fixed views on talking to Hamas. So says Henry Siegman, the director of the US/ Middle East Project, served as a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations from 1994 to 2006, and was head of the American Jewish Congress from 1978 to 1994. He points in particular to the Israelis, George Bush and the EU as needing to re-think their positions if they are not, wilfully, sending Blair off on a fool’s errand.Excerpt:“In fact, all previous peace initiatives have got nowhere for a reason that neither Bush nor the EU has had the political courage to acknowledge. That reason is the consensus reached long ago by Israel’s decision-making elites that Israel will never allow the emergence of a Palestinian state which denies it effective military and economic control of the West Bank. To be sure, Israel would allow – indeed, it would insist on – the creation of a number of isolated enclaves that Palestinians could call a state, but only in order to prevent the creation of a binational state in which Palestinians would be the majority.The Middle East peace process may well be the most spectacular deception in modern diplomatic history.” Worth a read.3rd August, 2007BROWN HAS CONFIRMED THE BRITISH ENVOYArticle here – pasted belowIt’s taken a few days, but finally PM/GB has appointed a senior United Nations official to be his special envoy to the Middle East. Michael Williams is a former BBC journalist who is currently working as UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s special co-ordinator on the Middle East Peace Process and personal represenative to the Palestine Liberation Organisation.The 58-year-old will begin work in September, taking over from former prime minister Tony Blair’s close friend and colleague Michael Levy.The foreign office, where he will be based, reporting to Brown and Foreign Secretary David Miliband, said his responsibilities will include Iraq and Iran as well as the Middle East peace process.Williams, who served with the UN in Cambodia, the former Yugoslavia, Geneva and New York, is a former special adviser to Robin Cook and Jack Straw, who were both foreign secretaries under Blair.His experience in the Middle East includes advising former UN chief Kofi Annan and implementing UN Security Council resolution 1701, which ended Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.The Guardian newspaper, which first reported Williams imminent appointment last week, suggested it would bring Brown into fresh conflict with Blair because of the latter’s role as international envoy to the Middle East Quartet.It is also a sign that Brown wants to carve out his own policy on the Middle East, particularly on economic development to the Palestinians.The daily said Williams would be welcomed by the Palestinians and other Arab countries, as they saw Levy as too close to Israel, while Blair was widely believed to be influenced by Washington and Jerusalem.Blair’s 10 years in power were marked by the often troubled dynamic with Brown, who served as finance minister throughout his time in Downing Street.
My thoughts on this: Whether this last observation means that Brown’s man is there to spike Blair’s guns I’m not so sure, though there is little doubt Brown will want to keep his eye on Blair. But, it may well be that during the Brothers B’s recent meeting over the MEPP the perceived leanings of one of these envoys in comparison to the other could be well utilised for balancing any arguments of bias.
29th July, 2007
BROWN TO APPOINT BRITISH ENVOY TO MIDDLE EAST
Reuters, via The Guardian suggests that Brown’s Man will be Michael Williams. Not yet announced officially, but I expect it will be AFTER Brown meets Bush today. 
The background of Michael Williams is interesting. Since May this year he has been coordinator of the UN in the MEPP (Middle East Peace Process – Remember that?) See today’s UN News Centre report. Excerpt:
16 May 2007 – Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has appointed the United Kingdom’s Michael Williams, a long-time United Nations staffer and foreign policy adviser, to the post of Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process. Mr. Williams will also serve as the Secretary-General’s Personal Representative to the Palestine Liberation Organization and the Palestinian Authority and his Envoy to the Quartet, the international diplomatic grouping on the Middle East.
Mr. Williams – who replaces Alvaro de Soto of Peru – has been serving as Mr. Ban’s Special Adviser on the situation in the Middle East, and was previously Director of the Asia and the Pacific Division in the UN Department of Political Affairs.
So if he is to represent British interests in the MEPP, does he have two or three other jobs? Is he STILL the UN co-ordinator?
According to today’s Independent, Tony Blair has this week been discussing the Middle East with GB/PM. Presumably they wish to be working together on this. The last thing anyone needs is a story of a rift or one-upmanship between the Brothers B.
Excerpt:
Last week, even the never-ending struggle with Gordon Brown was still going on. Mr Blair was back in his old office at No 10 for a face-to-face meeting with the new Prime Minister. They must have talked about Mr Brown’s plan to appoint his own envoy to the Middle East. Michael Williams, currently working for the UN, and Mr Blair are bound to face some delicate demarcation issues.
And – Wait For IT! …
AN UGLY RUMOUR – BLAIR BAND TO RE-FORM? 
Surely not! Is it April 1st? Or is TB/ex-PM winding them up?
His friend from the Oxford band Ugly Rumours, Mark Ellen, recently said that he and Mr Blair had discussed plans to re-form the group. Mr Blair told him: “You will soon see the real me emerging again.”
Now that Blair has exited the domestic scene, and politics seems a little boring, the press are desperate for a good squabble. They DO miss Blair. They may have settle for downloading his music. What was it they said the other day about a “rock star” in the Middle East?
Mr Blair I have written your first number one hit!
I’m sure Mr Blair will be happy to work with anyone; after all he’s rumoured to be working on talking to Hamas. And even a Brownite can’t be THAT much of a challenge! On the other hand …
27th July, 2007
“EVERYONE WANTS A PIECE OF TONY”
So says an Israeli article which shows just WHY Tony Blair is the man of the moment.
Excerpt:
He is smart, intelligent, not full of himself and has extraordinary personal charm. He knows how to listen and is not at all officious.”
“He is first and foremost an extraordinarily nice person.”
“A leader of world caliber, talented, charming and intelligent. Basically, a friend of Israel.”
“Inquisitive, mainly wants to listen, a serious chap who is well-liked in the world, the best man for the job.”
These are some of the enthusiastic compliments with which Israeli politicians who met with him, showered Tony Blair, the new Middle East Quartet envoy to the region. His two-day visit to Jerusalem seemed like the TV ad of two women fighting over the a Milky pudding: the most senior politicians vied with each other just to get some time in the former British prime minister’s crowded schedule, in spite of which he even managed to include a short visit to Ramallah. After a decade in power, Blair may have lost popularity among the British, but he has numerous admirers in Israel.
Blair’s visit left no doubt about it – an international rock star is now dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. None of the previous personalities or emissaries enjoyed a similar standing, or the prestige and political savoir faire Blair has brought with him to the position. Even the likes of Terje Roed-Larsen, Dennis Ross or James Wolfensohn can’t be compared to him.
The major question that accompanied Blair’s meetings with Israel’s top political echelon concerned his intentions. Will he stick to the limited mandate he has been given by the Quartet to further the building of Palestinian governmental institutions and to prepare them for independence; or will he be pushed into genuine mediation between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and the leaders of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas and Salem Fayad, on the way to a final-status solution – and perhaps also the Nobel Peace prize?
Sounds like he’s the new kid on the block all over again, doesn’t it? WOW Blair (Walks on Water!)
Don’t lose THIS lot this time Mr Blair. Keep ‘em with you and we ain’t seen nothing yet, imho.
The Bitter Lemons site is all about the Israel/Palestine issue. On this page three of the four writers welcome Tony Blair’s appointment, so that’s a reasonable start.26th July, 2007
“BLAIR OF ARABIA” – THE ECOMOMIST
Welcome to the snakepit, Mr Blair, says The Economist. One comfort for Mr Blair as he valiantly encourages his white charger to skim not sink into the sands, sword whipping dangerously by his leg, is that NO-ONE really expects much! And one or two might push him off the horse and use the trusty sword on him given half a chance.
Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany’s foreign minister moaned that the USA had pushed Blair through without due reference to the other Quartet members.
And other Middle East envoys, including Michael Williams, the UN envoy, and Javier Solana, the EU’s foreign-policy supremo are watering their steeds and sharpening their weapons ready to strike at the first sign of a stumble from the jumped-up former prime minister. Just who does he think he is?
Well, he is someoone whose closeness to the American President and whose personal high international profile and political nous has spurred the Arab League to send an unprecedented delegation to Israel formally to present a peace plan. And even Israel is making novel constructive proposals. Would Williams or Solana have got this reaction at this early stage? I doubt it.
Excerpt:
Nothing about the latest diplomacy is plain. None of those involved—Mr Olmert, Mr Abbas, moderate Arab leaders, George Bush and even Mr Blair—seems likely yet to have the will or the courage to tackle the explosive issues (the division of Jerusalem, the removal of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, redrawing borders or addressing the refugee question) that have prevented a lasting peace before. Welcome, Mr Blair, to the snake pit.
ASSASSINATION PLOT? 
In case anyone is in any doubt about the danger politicians face in the Middle East, a plot to kill Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has been uncovered.
Several shots were fired at Abbas’s home earlier this week. Abbas was inside the house, but neither he nor any of his family members were hurt.
A top security official said he was convinced Hamas was behind the shooting. “We believe that Hamas is behind the attack and that they are planning to assassinate the president,” the official said. “We have received a lot of information over the past few weeks that some Hamas elements in the West Bank are preparing to assassinate senior Palestinian officials in Ramallah.”
Many residents complained that the tough security measures had made their lives more difficult. Others complained that they had been assaulted by nervous security officers during routine checks.
A bit like Connaught Square, London then? The world we live in.
THE ‘H’ WORD
Interesting and incisive article in The Jerusalem Post today mentioning the elephant in the room – talking to Hamas.
Excerpts:
Such a breathtaking week of high-powered diplomacy hasn’t been seen around here since the heady days of Oslo. First it’s former British prime minister and now super-envoy Tony Blair and then not one, but two Arab foreign ministers, and – wait for it – they’re not only here representing their countries but the entire Arab League.
Yes, that anti-Israel organization which for decades tried to suffocate Israel and its nascent economy through the ruthless blackmail of the Arab boycott. They made the rounds: Shimon Peres, Tzipi Livni, Ehud Olmert, Ehud Barak and even Binyamin Netanyahu and the Knesset, all smiles and expansive press conferences. But all this brave new Middle East façade is hiding the bare fact that no one has any idea how to get out of the current impasse and above all, at no time is anyone mentioning the H-word. Hamas has all of a sudden disappeared.
Or does someone have a winning card tucked up his sleeve?
One seasoned British reporter smiled wryly as the cavalcade made its short way from the Foreign Ministry to the Prime Minister’s Office. A veteran of another decades-long conflict, he had little doubt what was going on behind the scenes. Blair is officially beholden to the Quartet’s position of leaving Hamas out for the time being and he won’t do anything to jeopardize his good relations with the Israeli government, but this observer is convinced that while he’s smiling at the president’s mansion, feelers are already going out to Gaza.
25th July, 2007
SECURITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST
On this leg of his first visit to the region since becoming the Quartet’s envoy, more violence underscored Blair’s difficulties. Factional clashes broke out among rival Palestinians in the West Bank and Israel conducted an air raid against Palestinian extremists in the Gaza Strip.
BLAIR – “TROJAN HORSE” / NEUTRAL?
And the region’s papers express their views here. See the BBC summary here.
Excerpt:
Tony Blair can make himself be remembered as a peacemaker in Palestine and not a warmonger as in Iraq if he can commit himself to neutrality and integrity in performing his mission. The question is will the Bush Administration or the Olmert government let him?
24th July, 2007
THE LEBANON EFFECT
Good article at The Times today, from Tim Hames.
Excerpt:
As Tony Blair arrived in Jerusalem yesterday, his second political career was already being viewed as no less contentious than his first. His appointment as the principal Middle East peace envoy has been treated as an act of arrogance bordering on the absurd by his opponents and a deed of excessive optimism verging on insanity by his friends. His personal history – a reluctance to criticise Israel’s intervention in Lebanon as much as his role in invading Iraq – is invariably seen as a liability.
As often with these things, it ain’t necessarily so. Indeed, it is precisely because of the conflict in Lebanon, at its most controversial height exactly a year ago, that Mr Blair has an opening. For 12 months after the battle fought over Beirut and elsewhere, it is clearer than ever that Israel was the military and strategic victor – and the political beneficiary.
BLAIR: “I’LL LISTEN, LEARN & REFLECT”
In Jerusalem today, after a meeting with Israeli President Shimon Peres, Tony Blair said there is a “sense of possibility” in the Middle East as he held talks with prominent Israeli and Palestinian leaders.
“I think there is a sense of possibility, but whether that sense of possibility can be translated into something, that is something that needs to be worked at and thought about over time.”
[Pic: Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni greets Blair on his arrival in Jerusalem]
These were the first public comments by Blair, the Mideast Quartet’s newly-appointed special envoy, who has said he has come to “listen, learn and reflect” during two days of meetings with Israeli and Palestinian leaders.
On Monday, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said prospects for a Palestinian state depended on a crackdown on militants and on the Palestinian government controlling all its territory and recognizing Israel’s right to exist.
The new Israeli President, Shimon Peres, a Nobel peace laureate, backed up Blair’s contention by saying that there is “a serious window of opportunity”.
“Your success is our success. Your dreams are our dreams,” Peres said.
Mr Blair told Israeli officials that a Mideast peace summit must bring substantive results, and not just be a public relations event, Israeli officials said on Tuesday.
Mr Peres promised to use his largely ceremonial post to support Mr Blair.
“I feel this is a serious window of opportunity for peace, but the duration is not too long. We will have to help you,” he said declaring his intention to cooperate with the former British Prime Minister.
Blair later travelled to the West Bank, where he went into talks with Palestinian Authority President Mahmud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.
Earlier, he met Israeli opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who focussed on the nuclear threat posed by Iran during their discussion.
But amid speculation that Mr Blair, will seek to widen his mandate and talk to Hamas, Israel has made it clear on his arrival that such a proposal is “unacceptable” to it.
“We would state very clearly that there can be no compromise with Hamas”, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s spokesperson, Miri Eisin, said when asked about Israel’s response to such a proposal.
PERES HINTS AT INCREASE IN BLAIR’S POLITICAL POWER
Still, the hint by Israeli President Shimon Peres at a political mandate for the 54-year-old Blair, credited with successful peacemaking in Northern Ireland will not go unnoticed.
Peres, 83, said Blair faced “one of the most responsible and demanding tasks of his career” and there was “a real chance for his success.”
Blair was due to end the visit to Israel and the West Bank on Wednesday and then travel to Gulf states. He plans to return to the region in September, before attending a Quartet meeting and a Middle East conference in the autumn.
It is clear that Blair has been greeted as a strategic political thinker who can garner support from across the board.Meanwhile Hamas says they WILL talk to Blair
23rd July, 2007
BLAIR ARRIVES IN MIDDLE EAST
And now, back to some serious business. Tony Blair has already visited two countries today, Jordan & Israel in this his first trip to the Middle East to start negotiating for the future of Palestininians and the rest of the region. He will have as adviser Daniel Levy, son of Lord Levy, one of those just cleared over the cash-for-honours fiasco. No concerns here about keeping the Disappointed happy then! Good for him. Read Daniel Levy’s thoughts on how Blair will need to talk to Hamas.
Extract:
[Daniel Levy], director of the Prospects for Peace Initiative at The Century Foundation, a Washington think-tank, claimed that Mr Blair’s record in Northern Ireland meant he understood the need to talk to extremists.
“For any process to have sustainability, legitimacy, and to guarantee security, it will have to be inclusive, not divisive, and to bring in Hamas over time,” he said. “Mr Blair, with his Northern Ireland experience, may understand this better than most.”
The BBC’s Middle East editor Jeremy Bowen says that if Mr Blair wants to be more than a fringe player, he will have to get Israel, the Palestinians and the Quartet members talking about final status issues. These include the position of Israel’s permanent borders, Jewish settlements on Palestinian territory, and the fate of Palestinian refugees.
There is also the status of Jerusalem, claimed by Israel as its capital, but which the Palestinians also want to make their capital.
At a meeting of the Middle East Quartet in Lisbon last week, Mr Blair said that he planned to “listen, to absorb and to reflect” during his Middle East visit before putting forward any proposals.
“There is a sense that we can regain momentum. That is the crucial thing,” he said.
USA WOULD NOT CEDE AUTHORITY
And James Wolfensohn, Blair’s predecessor urged caution in expectations due to lack of authority and support from the US, which dominates the Quartet. He said, “There was never a desire on the part of the Americans to give up control of the (peace) negotiations.”
Even in his limited role, Blair will have to confine his work to the West Bank, since the international community continues to shun Hamas, now in control of Gaza. Following the Hamas takeover, Abbas formed a new moderate government in the West Bank.
Chances of transforming the West Bank are perhaps better than any time since the outbreak of Israeli-Palestinian fighting in 2000, following failed peace talks.
The violence, which left nearly 4,400 Palestinians and more than 1,100 Israelis dead, blocked any progress in peacemaking, but the uprising has run out of steam.
Hamas, responsible for scores of deadly attacks, is largely contained behind Gaza’s border fences and on the defensive in the West Bank, while scores of gunmen from Abbas’ Fatah movement have surrendered their weapons in exchange for an Israeli amnesty.
In Gaza, Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum said Blair could not ignore Hamas, which swept Palestinian parliamentary elections last year. “It will lead to nothing but failure,” he said.
Abbas’ government is eager to resume negotiations on a final peace deal, but Israel says it’s too soon. Israel is willing to talk about general outlines of an agreement, but argues that negotiations can only begin once Abbas has disarmed militants and restored order in areas under his control.
EXPECTATIONS LOW
Israeli officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to talk to the media, said expectations were low for Blair’s first visit. They said the talks would be introductory, and they did not expect major pressure from him.
Things have moved on since the previous envoy was in place. With the ongoing situation in Iraq both Bush & Blair will wish to pull something out of the bag, if at all possible.
20th July, 2007
1. Tony (’ever-the-optimist’) Blair is hopeful in his new Envoy post. View video here
2. Labour won its two by-elections, leaving the Conservatives in 3rd place in both.
[Blair makes a point at the Lisbon Quartet meeting]
19th July, 2007
BREAKING NEWS – NO CHARGES IN CASH-FOR-HONOURS
THANK GOD FOR THAT!After the 16 months inquiry, which started in March 2006, at the cost of £1,000,000 a loud sigh of relief from all those under scrutiny, AND their loved ones!
And now – prepare for the fallout!
Tony Blair believed that this investigation did him immense damage, pehaps even hastening his departure. He was questioned three times by the police, the first prime minister to have been questioned by the police.
Certainly the press will be under some scrutiny too for their pursuit of these people who, in my eyes, have alway been innocent until proven guilty. NOW there is NO CASE TO ANSWER!!!
The shameful Angus McNeil will be giving birth!
136 witnesses were interviewed, and at the end three were arrested and remained on police bail. Ruth Turner, Lord Levy and the Labour donor Sir Christopher Evans.
And now for the fightback. Those who have been under suspicions, the Police and the media.
As Nick Robinson said, as did I … there HAS to be a better way than this!
Will our former Prime minister choose to continue the argument? It is too late to save his job, but perhaps not his reputation.
Will Inspector John Yates tonight be preparing to answer numerous allegations of improper pursuit of politicians, private individuals and the subsequent interference in government?
… more later when I get my breath back!
See my earlier posts, which I wrote MONTHS ago, updated a touch this evening:
RUSSIA’S TIT-FOR-TAT EXPULSIONS
Well they’d decided. As it get closer to today’s summit, I was beginning to wonder if I could have been right in my concerns over the Russians throwing an anvil in the works over Blair’s envoy job. Whether or not they actually considered it, I have no idea. But the news is that they are expelling four of our diplomats and that they will be unable to assist in ‘combating terrorism’ – whatever THAT means. Didn’t think they were signed up to that anyway. We await the “other consequences”.
BLAIR CHAIRS LISBON “QUARTET” SUMMIT
I’m not sure how much feedback we’re going to get from this meeting, but we’d better get SOME or our written press will be at it – scuttling around for leaks and rumour – all bad, of course. They’ll only be constrained by the likely more generous reporting of events by foreign press. Come to think of it, now that Mr Blair is an international figure ONLY, how the hell are we going to cope with only hearing Good News about Blair? What a quandary for the Mail and the Indie!
The meeting doesn’t get started until late this afternoon, but you can read the latest updates on progress here. You’ll also find there some useful background links to Palestinian/Israeli issues.
I still refer people to the BBC despite their recent bad publicity for the faked phone-ins and for the dodgy editing on Newsnight and The Queen’s portrait programme. On the whole, I trust their news coverage. It’s still more factual and much less pre-determined than that of many newspapers in the UK. Their remit for political balance, which does NOT apply to the papers, helps, no doubt! View short video of Blair’s onerous task.
The Independent article today, yes they DO have some good article writers, “Blair’s Road Map to Redemption?” also has a few useful pointers on the roadblocks along the way.
A comprehensive report on the task for Tony Blair. Doesn’t look for an easy job, does he?
Anyway, thus far the Russians haven’t boycotted the meeting at Lisbon – so Blair’s still the man!
Rice praises Blair as ‘Historic Figure’
Before today’s meeting kicks off, Rice has hailed Blair’s skills and defended the decision to limit his mandate to helping the Palestinians develop their infrastructure and economy. “This is a very skilled, respected and historic figure … who is absolutely dedicated to democracy, to building a better Middle East,” she said, speaking on board a plane heading to Lisbon. And she added that his role “is something that is completely complementary and if we all work together, and there is plenty to do, perhaps we can finally deliver.”
Meanwhile Hamas, for all its reservations regarding Tony Blair, is appealing to a wider spectrum that it is a serious body and not just a terrorist organisation. Read here.
18th July, 2007
PUTIN “BEHIND LITVINENKO MURDER”, SAYS BEREZOVSKY
A month ago Boris Berezovsky was warned that there was a plot to kill him “because Putin wanted to eliminate witnesses to the Litvinenko story. He insists that President Putin was behind the murder of Litvinenko.
“Mr Berezovsky, 61, a critic of the Russian government, told the BBC earlier on Wednesday that he had been warned about the alleged plot by sources in Russia and Scotland Yard.”
16th July, 2007
DIPLOMAT ROW: A SPANNER IN BLAIR’S WORK?
Am I being too suspicious here, or has Mr Brown and his ‘new’ government chosen THIS week purposefully to try to thwart Mr Blair’s ambitious plans for the Middle East? Throwing out four Russian diplomats, with reciprocal threats from Russia, hardly bodes well for Tony Blair’s meeting with the Quartet on Thursday. Couldn’t GB/PM have waited until next week?
Well, no. Word is that Mr Brown was none too pleased that he hadn’t been consulted about Tony Blair’s new envoy job. Pleased to get him out of the country – but not so pleased to watch him get the credit for doing the impossible AFTER he has left power.
And what exactly are the limits of Blair’s powers anyway? Can he speak to the international figures concerned, without regard to other countries out of the region? Can he deal-make? Can he impose policy on the EU and others in the Quartet? No-one has told Brown, or anyone come to that, apart from the USA whose commitment to Blair is clear and who are already funding Blair’s efforts with cash for projected Palestinian projects (see below).
With rising tensions between Britain and Russia over the Litvinenko case Mr Blair and Mr Bush will also be hoping there will be no attempt from Russia to scupper Blair’s efforts before they start. Will Putin try to withdraw support for Blair on Thursday as a response? If they try, Blair’s reply to that is clear: Mr Blair is NOT there at Mr Brown’s bidding; in fact, quite the opposite. The political context may not be lost on Mr Putin.
“Staring Down The Russian Bear” – An interesting description on this site of our new government – “milquetoast” – “meek, timid, unassertive”. It IS an American blog, so I guess they are hurting as much as I am about our recent change of premiership. It might be noteworthy that Mr Blair, for all his ups and down with Putin, has never overseen an ejection of Russian diplomats in order to make a point. The last time was in 1996, before Blair’s Labour party came to power. Whether Blair would have done so now if still in place, is a moot point.
COMPLEXITIES OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
None of this is to suggest that our government is wrong to respond to Russia’s refusal to extradite Andre Lugovoy, the suspect in this murder case. But it is far more complex than that. At the recent EU conference Mr Blair raised the plutonium killing with Putin. The conversation was reportedly frosty and not satisfactorily concluded.
Mr Putin is also reported to be about to withdraw support for the European Treaty on Conventional Weapons. He is against Kosovo’s independence from Serbia, in opposition to most of the international community. This approach might precipitate Kosovo declaring unilateral independence causing more fallout in the Balkans. Putin’s help over Iran and her growing nuclear ambitions is so far ambivalent, due to energy deals with Iran, and not yet forthcoming.
And there is the little question over the siting in eastern Europe of the USA defence shield. You will recall Putin’s threat recently to attack Europe.
Added to that, Britain will not extradite to Russia its citizens wanted for anti-government political activity. Reason – Russia’s record of murdering its own dissidents. Mr Putin was once a KGB man, as is Lugovoy, and Putin still thinks in those terms. Human rights are a low priority. And of course we are dependent on Russia for much of our gas and oil, and will be until other arrangements are set up or our nuclear power base is increased.
Supping with the ‘enemy’ is not always straightforward, at home or abroad.
AND WOULD BROWN REALLY KILL OFF BLAIR’S ME AMBITIONS?
Maybe. Then again, maybe not. The Brothers B will want to keep their cards close to their individual chests. But with Mr Brown re-writing policy at home which he had previously backed (casinos), Mr Blair knows his enemies are all around and closing in. But a Middle East settlement will be helpful for Iraq’s future in the end. Surely a prize worth having, even for Brown, who so far has managed to keep any personal responsibility for Iraq at arm’s length, eschewing the charge of cabinet responsibility.
Considering the way Brown infamously chose to keep HIS areas of interest, notably the economy, well out of Blair’s reach even BEFORE the 1997 election, and chose to communicate only when he wanted to, the new PM could not have expected much consultation from his erstwhile colleague.
Mr Blair is not looking for peace in the ME as a ‘British foreign policy’ but under the auspices of a much wider forum – The Quartet. America is already behind Blair and his interests will be in keeping Putin, the UN and EU onside. Brown is, after all, only the British PM, part of the EU. However, the return for such a great prize as Mid-East peace would not necessarily be seen as to Britain’s glory, but to Blair’s alone.
Largely thanks to Mr Brown, Mr Blair is now outside the UK tent. And you know what THAT often means!
Read “Man In The Middle” Analysis.
Read Open Letter To Tony Blair
Excerpt: “First, you are going to have to change. As a prime minister who came to power through media spin and who was never shy to appear in front of camera, you are going to have to learn to embrace silence.
The issues are too complex and the egos of the regional leaders, Arab and Israeli, Muslim, Christian and Jewish, too delicate for you to feed half-digested gobbets of news each day to the world’s media.
You will have to learn that in the Middle East patience not profile is a blessing.”
I beg to suggest he knows that already.
NOTE: So pretty soon those of us who enjoy hearing his thought processes will just have to manage without. Thus, when he takes up the post seriously, I am likely to cease adding to the blog. But I will continue to update it with any comments people send.
BUSH PROMISES DIPLOMATIC & FINANCIAL SUPPORT TO BLAIR
President Bush launched a fresh effort to kick start the Middle East peace process this evening by backing his old ally, Tony Blair, with promises of American diplomatic and financial support.
Mr Bush pledged an extra $190 million of US aid to the Palestinian government of Mahmoud Abbas, as well as announcing plans for an international peace conference involving Israel and its Arab neighbours this autumn.
His intervention came as Mr Blair prepared to begin his new job on Thursday, when the former Prime Minister will meet the “Quartet” of Middle East peace brokers – the US, the EU, the United Nations and Russia – who have appointed him as their special envoy to the region.
Ahead of that meeting in Lisbon, Mr Blair is expected to embark on a whistle-stop tour of European capitals including Brussels, Rome and Madrid to generate further momentum for the initiative.
He is known to have spoken to both Mr Bush and Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, in recent days amid signs of rising optimism about securing the US backing for the peace process which he had long sought – but never achieved – while still in Downing Street. Read full story here
BLAIR’S SECURITY: “If I am to be assassinated”
A propos the below, Cherie Blair’s words on the dangers of her husband’s new post in the Middle East led me to this account of Tony Blair’s last weeks in office. It is well worth reading and casts light on his own approach to the dangers of high profile politics. A kind of strange phraseology – “if I am to be assassinated”. Fatalism comes to mind. Enough of this – whatever happened to our man of destiny?
Excerpt from article:
A week later, during the interview in the Birmingham hotel, I ask Blair why he hadn’t worn body armour in Iraq (officials, press and military all had).
“The politicians there don’t wear it,” he replies. “If they don’t, why should I?” I press the point. “It’s not a bravura thing,” he says, “I think if something’s gonna happen, it’s not gonna do you a great deal of good. It’s far more likely I’ll shake hands with a group of kids today and somebody does something crazy than on a day in Iraq.”
Run that by me again, I say. “I don’t mean it’s more dangerous in Redditch than Baghdad,” he says. “I mean if I am to be assassinated it’s more likely to be in circumstances where I am out mixing with people but people aren’t anticipating danger.”
PHLEGMATISM V PRAGMATISM
Sounds to me as though he takes a phlegmatic view, which is probably just as well. There’s enough emotion around this issue as it is, from one side or another. But I hope his security team’s view is informed more by pragmatism than by Blair’s admirable philosophical approach, whether he is in the Middle East or at home.
INTERNATIONAL REPERCUSSIONS?
No-one is indispensable and peace envoys have a habit of being knocked off on the job. It’s the international repercussions that add to the unpalatable mix in such a dreadful eventuality with THIS particular peace envoy at THIS particular time that should be thoroughly considered and understood BEFORE he goes.
CHERIE ATTACKED FOR STATING THE OBVIOUS 
An argument I put on this blog a few months ago about the personal danger to Mr Blair (and on a wider front to the rest of us), in his envoy job is obviously of concern to his wife Cherie Booth QC, aka Mrs Blair. Of course, in the usual way, for even mentioning this, she is abused. She’s not supposed to sound even a teensy weensy bit worried that she may be left as a single mum of four, as Tony goes off to try to sort out the cauldron that is the Middle East.
[Pic: at Idaho July 14th, 2007, at husband's speaking engagement]
Extract:
‘Cherie Blair’s very first evening out after leaving Number 10 was to be the guest-presenter for the 2007 Legal Aid Lawyer of the Year awards.
She was, of course, there as Ms Cherie Booth QC, but nevertheless reminded the audience of her (continuing) status as consort to a global player. She said: “Only my husband would volunteer for the most dangerous job in the world at the moment.”
Lord, what an unstoppably daft mouth she still has. I can think of a large bunch of people who might want to challenge Mrs Blair about who is doing the most dangerous job in the world at the moment.
They would be the families of the 32 members of our Armed Forces killed in Iraq so far this year (against 29 in all of last year) and the 19 in Afghanistan (where the small force of 4,500 is taking casualties at near Second World War levels).’
The writer should consider this:
- 1. Troops KNOW that they may die in action. Our troops don’t complain like this. They fight bravely as they are required. They accept the risks and the responsibilities. If they didn’t, they wouldn’t be in the forces. Policemen and firemen understand the same. It comes with the territory. No-one argues with the courage of those who take THAT kind of risk. Blair’s peace envoy risk is a whole different ball game AND he is a civilian.
- 2. Cherie Booth is a free woman in a free country where this article writer is free to accuse and abuse both her and her husband. I have yet to hear Mr or Mrs Blair personally naming and attacking ANY journalist, despite being subjected to such attacks relentlessly by rude and insufficiently informed ‘armchair general’ article writers.
- 3. Cherie Booth is a highly educated, articulate and respected barrister whose record in charitable work is extensive and whose work on human rights has at times put her at odds with her husband. She is entitled, in fact expected, to refer to her husband and the future, just a few days after the end of his ten year premiership. If she’d said nothing … what would this writer have said? – something like, “Why did she say nothing?” Like her husband, she can’t win with the feral press.
- 4. Tony Blair could opt out of EVERY facet of politics, and leave the future up to others. He could make money acting, speaking, on company boards, in business, even as a political adviser in, it would seem, the USA. He does not NEED to take such a high political profile in this the most dangerous part of today’s world. But he has chosen to take on this unpaid post, where his life is clearly under threat. He is already in the top 5 of the world’s terror targets, and now he is going into their midst. That makes him a hero to me. Let’s hope he doesn’t become a martyr.
[Pic below: Blair, in Idaho, USA to speak at Media Conference, 14th July 2007]
LETTER TO BLAIR FROM EU MINISTERS ON MID-EAST
Open letter to Tony Blair from the ten Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Mediterranean members States of the European Union, published in “Le Monde” newspaper.
Excerpt follows:
Paris, 10 July 2007
“Dear Tony,
After ten years spent serving Britain, and while the world was already regretting your leaving front-line politics, you have just accepted a mission which is more complex, even more impossible than all those you had tackled until now. Impossible? The task, effectively, would be enough to discourage anyone.”
13th July, 2007
QUARTET TO MEET WITH BLAIR NEXT THURSDAY, 19th JULY
The key international Mideast mediators known as the Quartet will confer with former British prime minister Tony Blair for the first time next week in his new role as their representative in efforts to promote peace between Israel and the Palestinians.
Top officials from the Quartet — the United Nations, the United States, the European Union and Russia — will meet on July 19 in Lisbon, Portugal, U.N. deputy spokeswoman Marie Okabe said.
“The meeting comes at a crucial moment and will be an opportunity to assess the recent events and discuss the way forward to advance the cause of peace in the Middle East,” she said.
“In particular, the Quartet principals will confer with the Quartet representative, Tony Blair, on how best to assist the Palestinian Authority in building its institutions and economy, which are vital for the creation of a viable Palestinian state,” Okabe said.
12th July, 2007
BLAIR – BBC SERIES ON HIS YEARS IN POWER
The BBC has secured an exclusive series of interviews with Tony Blair in which the former Prime Minister talks candidly about his decade in power.
The corporation said that Mr Blair was not paid to take part in the three hour-long programmes, which will be screened on BBC One in November.
The films feature contributions from colleagues at home and abroad, and critics. David Aaronovitch, the Times columnist, will conduct an extensive series of interviews with Mr Blair for the programmes and narrate the series.
Should be interesting, but we’re not likely to get the TBGB tales here, either.
BLAIRS – 2nd MOST SOUGHT AFTER PARTY GUESTS
[Pic: The Blairs leaving their Connaught Square home]
It seems that despite everything, Tony & Cherie Blair are second only to Kate Middleton as most desired party guests according to this month’s Tatler list. Gordon Brown does not make the Top 100. Given that Prince William’s ‘ex’ just nudged the Blairs into second place, I can’t help wondering if the ‘chattering classes’ are not more interested in hearing an exclusive than in, say, the politics of the Middle East. Mustn’t get cynical. I’d love to have the Blairs for dinner too – and I wouldn’t really want to ask them how on earth they’d coped with Brown all these years. Though if they told me, well, that would be, as Mr Blair used to say, “for me to know and for you to (try) to find out.” I’d keep it as secret as my identity, you can rest assured, but it’d be interesting to know.
CASH FOR HONOURS AIDE RUNS INTER-FAITH FOUNDATION
Ruth Turner, the Downing Street official who was arrested in the cash for honours investigation, has gone to work for Tony Blair to set up his charitable foundation.
Ms Turner, whose arrest triggered Cabinet protests after four officers raided her home at dawn, started working for Mr Blair on Wednesday.
Since this investigation has not yet concluded this could be interpreted as a risky placement for Mr Blair. If Ms Turner is charged he will be in the unedifying position of having a highly regarded employee taken into police custody. On the other hand, he is not dumping people he has always trusted ‘just in case’.
And as I wrote on this blog several months ago, we are all innocent until proven guilty.
CAN BLAIR, THE ACTOR, WAIT?
[Pic: Not bad for a politician, eh girls? Don't get too excited now!]
Reading through The Blair Years, I was struck by how Blair envied the pop stars he met, who he thought were “expected to misbehave”. If he wasn’t so driven to tidy up his “war years” legacy I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he was tempted into showbiz. Acting the part is what he’s accused of; might as well make something out of it. It’s a much easier way to popularity, after all, than politics. Whether popularity matters to him so much today, well, I’m not sure. And although he still looks good, and asked Campbell in his book, “how many prime ministers have a body like this?”, tempus fugit.
11th July, 2007
TONY BLAIR WANTS A MORE POLITICAL MANDATE
Word is out that Tony Blair wants a broader mandate for his peacekeeping mission in the Middle East.
Diplomats from the Quartet, the grouping of the United States, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia, met in London yesterday to discuss the scope of Blair’s role as the Quartet’s special Middle East envoy. The former British prime minister is supposed to make his first Middle East trip in his new role next week, but the visit could be postponed if an agreement on his mandate is not reached.
Blair was quoted as saying his capacity-building mandate “is not enough” and that he wants a more political role.
Give him the tools and he’ll finish the job. Whatever you do, don’t make him subservient to individual countries’ foreign policies; such as that of his own country. He’s only just managed to break free from those particular chains. He cannot be limited by any individual nation’s cries for “human rights” before negotiations. It won’t wash and it won’t work.
And just as a reminder of the sort of cultures and mindset he is stepping into, here is a news item from Iran.
‘Iran is executing citizens for adultery, “rape, insulting religious sanctities and laws, and homosexuality.”
The Islamic Republic’s government confirmed on Tuesday 11th July 2007 that it executed an adulterer last week by stoning, and that 20 more men would be executed in the next few days on morality violations, the New York Times reported.
The stoning was carried out last week near the city of Takestan, despite an order by the chief of the judiciary, Ayatollah Mahmoud Shahroudi, not to permit such executions. Most executions in Iran are public hangings, often at the scenes of the alleged crimes, according to the report.’
10th July, 2007
A STAR OVER JERUSALEM?
It may not be long before the former PM is off on his quest – [to follow that star, no matter how hopeless, no matter how far ...]
Religious references may not be considered helpful, but the words of the ‘Man of La Mancha’ – This Is My Quest – are my inspiration here. Great lyrics.
Here are some thoughts on the task he faces. Analysis from The Jerusalem Post.
Excerpt:
“Whether you agree with his politics or not, few politicians in the world have the intelligence or the tenacity of Tony Blair. If anyone can deliver Middle East peace, it is he.”
Prof. Hussein Solomon lectures in the Department of Political Sciences at the University of Pretoria, where he is also director of the Center for International Political Studies.
So, Mr Blair, as in 1997, high hopes go with you [not anOTHER cue for a song!!] I am sure you will do your best.
8th July, 2007
BLAIR’S FINAL PRIME MINISTER’S QUESTIONS
To see the last Tony Blair PMQs including the unprecedented standing ovation, please click here or see the bit the BBC missed at Sky. (Prepare to shed a tear)
Comment at end of page
LOSING THE BEST MAN FOR THE JOB
“See You Later, Kids”. Blair doesn’t forget the son on the right, who seems a little downcast. Cherie doesn’t forget the press, “I don’t think we’ll miss you”.
Tony & Cherie Blair leave Number 10 to visit the Queen to resign his premiership
Click the video arrow to watch
10th July, 2007
A quick preamble: A look back before looking forward. When I hear anything about Blair’s way forward I’ll add it here. For now, HE’S become the Invisible Man, with every right so to be.
In case you think I’m resigned to all of this – make no mistake, I’m still furious! I wouldn’t be spending all of this time on the blog if I was happy about this PM’s early departure from office. I don’t think I’m the only uneasy one.
Read this article by the BBC’s Nick Assinder on Wednesday, the day Tony Blair resigned. “Why is Blair stepping down?”
Assinder’s summary contends, as many have before, that Brown and Blair’s Granita restaurant leadership agreement in 1994 after John Smith’s death caused sustained bitterness from Brown throughout Blair’s tenure as PM. The Granita agreement is debatable and unconfirmed by both Bs. So we may never know what was said. It seems clear what was understood, though, with NO room for change of mind, no flexibility for events.
After Blair’s heart scare in 2004 he made an announcement that although he would lead Labour into the 2005 election he would stand down before the next. This promise, which Blair seemed to reluctantly accept but which was a combination of his not wishing to “go on and on …” (a la Thatcher) and pressure from others, did NOT calm the situation as he had hoped. In fact it weakened his position further and allowed the Brownites in the party to extract from him a leaving date. The rest is history.
So now the best Labour leader and most gifted communicator and prime minister for half a century is giving way at the height of his powers for an older man. GREAT!
- Iraq? The NHS & Schools? The Left of the Party? NONE of them really matter; it was Brown and the Brownites. Theirs was the agenda, whatever the hell it was!
- Or – was Blair blackmailed, as he accused Brown of threatening? If so, what about?
- Or was he simply told he’d be bundled out of the back door if he didn’t state a leaving date to those little people whose political careers have been so heavily dependent on him and might well not have existed without him? A speedy Thatcherite-like exit would not be an option for Blair.
- Or is it just Buggin’s turn? If so, Buggins Brown is right in there now – running our country as terrorists test him and government after Blair.
Mad? You bet I am!
Blair: “Enough of talking; it’s time now to do”.
The first of many unprecedented events in the Blair era. After a huge landslide election victory, Blair is treated like a hero as he arrives iin Downing Street.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ui_YVew5rNU
Tony & Cherie Blair are greeted warmly by voters tired of 18 years of Conservative rule.
Click the video arrow to watch
WILL BLAIR FIND IT DIFFICULT TO COPE OUT OF POWER?
[Pic: Blair hands over the party leadership to Gordon Brown, 24th June, 2007]
Listen to this audio report on Why Life Will Never Be The Same for Tony Blair, by The Telegraph’s Andrew Pierce. Pierce asserts, “He’ll never quite come to terms” out of the office of PM – “… it’s never quite the same”.
Well, yes, of course! Blair’s driving force now is to rebuild his reputation, which has taken a battering. His new jobs are just the beginning of this restoration.
So, two big jobs straight away – the Middle East Peace Envoy and as a major part of the Africa Progress Panel set up to ensure the G8 countries double the amount of aid to Africa by 2010.
When he gets over the first few days and weeks out of power, I don’t think being an ex-premier will prey on his mind too much. He’s not sitting back in retirement like Thatcher or Major. Blair is NOT easily comparable to other ex-premiers. He has a bigger agenda now.
Mr Brown will be only too pleased to have Blair in Jerusalem and Africa. Brown would not want Blair leaning heavily on HIS shoulder throughout his premiership. He knows EXACTLY how intrusive and unsettling that can be be.
For the first time in over 20 years these political siamese twins have separate existences.
Oh the FREEDOM!
Video of Blair’s former press adviser, Alastair Campbell: Why Tony Blair can be proud of his years in the top job.
Remember this? A stroll down Memory Lane
May 1997 – HELLO NUMBER 10
[Pic: May 2nd 1997. Tony Blair with his family on the doorstep of Number 10]
After ending “18 long years” of Tory rule, Tony Blair, Labour’s historic landslide winner, stood on the doorstep of Number 10 Downing Street with his wife Cherie and young family.
Ten years on –
June 2007 – GOODBYE NUMBER 10
The ever-optimistic Tony Blair and his family wave to a noisy press outside Number 10. He doesn’t look too depressed to be leaving the hot seat.
The history books will show that he left on the date of HIS choice. (Only the year was wrong).
[Pic below: June 27th 2007. All the family members have changed a bit since 1997, and added another son to their number]
[Picture above: The little one waves just like his Dad]
LAST PRIME MINISTER’S QUESTIONS for Tony Blair
From high noon Wednesday 27th June, 2007
[Picture above: Gordon Brown and Margaret Beckett with Tony Blair as he leaves the House of Commons for the last time after his standing ovation. Emotional? Clearly - but more for some of us than for others]
HISTORIC LAST PMQs
Had to put a few things in about this, Tony Blair’s last PMQs appearance. It was moving, as well as amusing and ground-breaking in the standing ovation he received from MPs of all parties appreciative of his eloquence and achievements. It was a credit to parliament as well as to Mr Blair.
View Blair’s joke at his own expense – Blair in last PMQs: “My p45 arrived in the post”.
Leaving No 10 for the Last Time – view video. Mr and Mrs Blair give their children reassuring words and hugs as he and Cherie go off to the Palace to hand in his resignation.
View a short clip of the closing remarks – “that is it – the end”
Read John Rentoul article on Blair’s last PMQs
I noticed he didn’t refer to his successor as he wound up. Some expected him to wish Brown ‘good luck’. What was missing, perhaps, spoke volumes.
The Independent’s report on Blair’s last day
‘It seemed that Mr Blair had achieved the objective of an embarrassing leaked memo about his long goodbye – to bow out with ” the crowds wanting more”. As they left the Commons chamber, several women Labour MPs were in tears, including Margaret Beckett, the Foreign Secretary, and Jacqui Smith, the Chief Whip. So was Phil Woolas, the Local Government minister. “It was like a wedding and a funeral rolled into one,” one minister said. A diehard ultra-Blairite added: “What have we done? We will miss him.” ‘
So will we.
THEN THE FIRST CLASS LEADER WENT OFF TO RESIGN FOR THE SECOND TIME IN ONE DAY Not many of us do a double like this, do we? But for the former prime minister there was no hanging about. A few hours after visiting the Queen he travelled by train to inform his constituents that he was about to drop out of all domestic politics. After all those years he would no longer be their member of parliament. A by-election is expected in Sedgefield within weeks.WITHDRAWAL PAINS?It must be hard for Mr Blair. After ten years of high intensity work in the top job he now wakes up as an ordinary member of the public.Suddenly NOTHING in government depends on him any more. No URGENT calls to make or receive; no important papers to scan; no testing press events; no policy meetings; no parliamentary appearances; and of course, NO BIG, often instant, decisions to be taken.For example, when he heard the car bomb announcement this morning (on Radio 4’s ‘Today’ programme, like many of us) did he instinctively reach for the phone to speak to a political adviser, the Home Office, a senior civil servant, or the security services?Perhaps not, but I reckon switching off just might take some getting used to. You should enjoy the peace and quiet while you can, Mr Blair. It might be about to get VERY busy.Blair says: “It’s a little strange …”On being out of Number 10, the former Prime Minister says he misses the things around him which he’d become used to, rather than all the heavy political stuff. Plenty more time for heavy politics, perhaps; Jerusalem beckons.
FINDING THE BEST MAN FOR THE JOB
28th June, 2007
Our Loss Is Someone Else’s Gain – BLAIR – as Middle East Envoy
As he embarks on Tony Blair Part II, the former British Prime Minister has been named as the Special Envoy for the international Middle East Quartet – the U.S., the European Union, Russia and the United Nations. No sooner had Mr Blair stepped down as British PM on Wednesday 27th June, than the announcement was made of this ‘unpaid’ post.
Our loss could, hopefully, be the Middle East’s gain. And in the long run our gain too.
Reaction to Blair as Envoy – view video
[Pic: Tony Blair with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas]
Some in the Middle East are happier than others. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is delighted, whereas a Hamas spokesman said:
“Blair, who supported the American occupation in Iraq and Afghanistan, may not be a man of peace.
His appointment is not acceptable to Hamas nor to the Palestinians. He will not do anything to support the Palestinian interests but will do everything to support the Israeli occupation.”
Since Mr Blair’s main aim will be to help lay the groundwork for an envisaged Palestinian state, they may find themselves pleasantly surprised.
American and European diplomats are hopeful that the high-profile appointment of the former prime minister will give new impetus to Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts, at a time of high tensions after the intra-Palestinian conflict that left the militant Islamic movement Hamas in control of Gaza.
A joint statement by the Quartet partners said the latest events in Gaza and the West Bank make it more urgent than ever to advance the search for peace in the Middle East, and have reinforced the need for the international community to help build the institutions for a viable Palestinian state in both areas.
The statement said Mr. Blair, to be based in Jerusalem and supported by a team of experts, will seek to mobilize international aid to the Palestinians, focused on building their capacity for governance and economic development.
Mr. Blair’s mandate was carefully negotiated among the Quartet members over the past several days. At a news briefing, State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack said that under an agreed “division of labour,” the U.S. will continue to have the lead role in political efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
“Secretary of State Rice and President Bush are going to focus on political negotiations, as they have,” said Sean McCormack. “And Mr. Blair is going to focus his considerable talents, and his efforts, on building those Palestinian institutions. I dare say that that is going to take as much time as he is ready to devote to the issue, and I know he is ready to devote a considerable amount of time to building those institutions.”
McCormack said the institution-building effort by Mr. Blair will be of comparable importance to the U.S.-led diplomacy, since there cannot be a Palestinian state without success in both areas.
He said part of the reason why Palestinian institutions are so lacking now is the legacy of the late former PLO leader Yasser Arafat, who he said built a “thoroughly corrupt” government and a system of security forces intended only to maintain his hold on power.
The Blair mission will succeed, and expand on, that of former World Bank President James Wolfensohn, who made a largely unsuccessful effort on behalf of the Quartet to build up the economy of Gaza after Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from the area in 2005.
Officials say Mr. Blair will not draw a salary though his travel and office expenses will be paid for by the Quartet. The four-power grouping produced a detailed “road map” to a two-state Israeli-Palestinian settlement in 2003, but implementation of the plan has been stalled for several years.
It seems likely that Mr Blair will pursue the aims of this post alongside other jobs in which he has political interest – viz, Africa and/or Climate Change. If they ALL turn out to be unpaid expenses-only positions, perhaps he will need to keep his speaking talents honed, for the corporate world which is eager and willing to seek out his expertise.
Perhaps not such a quiet time as some like to think.
CASH FOR HONOURS INVESTIGATION STILL HAUNTING BLAIRIt seems that Tony Blair has been questioned by police for the third time in the cash-for-honours inquiry just a few days before the orderly handover. The word is out that the police are struggling to come up with sufficient evidence to stand up to CPS requirements.I suppose we should be grateful that the Police kept quiet, when requested, about their third questioning of Tony Blair in the last few days of his premiership. It would have made things VERY uncomfortable for him and for his successor had the papers got hold of it. Of course, Mr Blair kept quiet in February this year when asked to do so by the police while they crept up unnoticed on Lord Levy AGAIN! So, the favour was returned.It just shows that things CAN be kept under wraps, despite the leaking that came from who-knows-where at earlier times in this investigation. But how much longer do we have to wait for the thing to end? It really has been a relentless search for these ‘master-criminals’!!!If the case has always been so strong, why has it taken so long, and so much public money, to conclude?
Update on whatsisname & Tony Blair[Apologies to my regular commenter Tony Jarrett for referring to the new PM so disparagingly - but he knows how I feel about GB. This site isn't called KTBFPM for nothing!]I really DO think we’re getting a bit carried away here. Mr GB/PM has said a couple of things about terrorism and suddenly he’s the greatest thing since, well, Tony Blair!Come ON! All he said was “we will not be intimidated”. And that’s TOUGH? No, no – it’s SENSIBLE; restrained; considered, etc etc! SO unlike our own dear departed former leader, God Rest His Soul.Meanwhile, on my way up to Glasgow airport tomorrow I will be delayed on departure and arrival because the authorities (police? airports? government?) have decided that cars need to be kept away from the terminals.Ridiculous!!! You mean I have to WALK with all those bottles of Talisker in my bags?What about not being intimidated? If I have to walk I might be jumped by a restless taxi driver, sick at not being able to earn a living picking up and dropping off at the airport. He might as well put a wee ‘hauf’ inside him – the police are too busy chasing around for miscreant doctors to notice.”Whit the *u**’s goin’ oan here, Jimmy?” Glaswegian taxi drivers are more to the point than the London cabbies. So are the security forces whose secrets are so well kept they themselves didn’t know that an attack was coming (though all the papers did) really so naive as to think that someone else will have a go at an airport AGAIN?It’ll most likely be a chemical attack next – emanating from the fact that all the arrested would-be jihadists are doctors!So get to the infrastructure setups, please. Gas, water, electricity supplies. They’ll be next – or maybe your local Tesco. It WON’T, as sure as my name’s not Tony Blair, be another airport.Anyway, whatever happened to the “…we will not be intimidated” stuff?As long as we’re all trying our outmost utmost!
Links to site pages
- The Impossible Dream – for lyrics, Matt Monro, Peter O’Toole versions
- View more Blair (political) videos
- Watch video of Tony Blair on his new role as Envoy
- Watch Sky News video – Blair’s threats and opportunities
- Watch video of Shimon Peres, Israeli President – “What does Hamas want to talk to Blair about? They don’t want peace.”
- More about the Palestinian Rivals – Fatah & Hamas
- UN website on Middle East Peace Process – Blair appointed & other updates
- Amazing interactive map on Middle East relationships
- Antony Jay – Antidisestablishmentarianism – and other big words
- Blairs on Holiday
- Last PMQ’s for Blair – 27th June 2007
- Click Here for stuff about whatsisname and/or Blair
- Read the message on this page to Tony Blair from young Palestinians
- Obituary for Tony Blair – by Dubbya
- Cash for honours – NO charges
- Read Full CPS Decision
- Innocent …
- Police – the State we’re In
- Police Overkill?
- Absurd Islamists – Radical Extremists – Victims – Loopy Civil Righters
- Alastair Campbell – The Blair Year -Read extracts from his diaries
- “Abdication” or Political Assassination – Blair still feels he has been pushed out
- Last PMQs for Blair – 27th June, 2007
- Blair’s Short Goodbye – The Last Day
- Kiss Tony Blair Goodbye – Martin Amis’s trip with the PM
- Terrorists Convicted
- Tony Blair After Downing Street – Thoughts on the last few days of his premiership and updates, when I can find any!
- Blair’s Bombs In The Land of War – Islamic Theology Rues – OK?
- Hiroshima in UK?
- EU Summit – Brussels Review of Blair’s last EU meeting
- Blair speech on “Feral Press” A call to review the power and press responsibility
- Blair – Climate Czar? Is this Blair’s next big job?
- Blair in Africa Legacy of Blair’s leadership in Africa
- Go to “Blair – A Call To Arms?” PM says – police v Human Rights?
- Blair – “I did what I thought was right” Retirement speech
- Full transcript of Tony Blair’s retirement speech 10th May, 2007, Sedgefield
- Leaders Deathbed Confession?
- Tony Blair to Iraq No, No, No – yes, yes!
- Blair Announces Military Action on Iraq 20th March, 2003; Video & Transcript
- All Ending In Tears” Opinion – Brown & Blair
- “Tony Blair’s Successor – Leadership” Brown – The Invisible Man.
- “Thoughts and Opinion on Tony Blair”Political Obituaries for Blair.
- David Cameron – Policy?
- “OK … I give up … sort of!” Blair resignation plans, September 2006
- A Very British Coup – or – How To Kill The Leader and Get Away With It
- “Be Proud, Tony” It was the Sun Wot Said It!
- View Tony Blair Videos
- View Prime Minister’s Questions from Parliament
Tags: 1. Tony Blair, britain, british, election, EU, former Prime Minister, Israel prime minister, Middle East - Countries/Issues, Peace Envoy, Quartet, Tzipi Livni, uk, UN, usa
June 29, 2007 at 10:45 pm |
I feel kind of sad we can no longer proudly claim Tony as our own. It’s like loosing your best striker to another football club.
June 29, 2007 at 11:10 pm |
I know what you mean, Marc. But despite the fact that he no longer represents our government and despite his early, and in my opinion unnecessary departure, we can still be proud of him on the international stage. Everyone else in the world, where he seems to be prized more than he is here, knows that he is British. Single-handedly he has raised the British profile and level of respect worldwide. Don’t believe what they say about Iraq ‘losing’ us respect. It ain’t true!
My feeling, apart from dejection at losing our ‘best striker’, is of great disappointment that we the British public have been persuaded to transfer him so cheaply. His party and our press have driven a hard bargain.
July 2, 2007 at 4:33 pm |
It was utterley predictable that Tony Blair’s announcement that he would stand down before the 2008ish election would lead to a weakening position for him, much the same as US presidents are usually weaker in the twilight of their presidency. (I did predict it, too.)
TB’s strongest suit is persistence, and his networking skills, and nerve. To assume he has the same grades in every political skill is an error imho.
Brown is clever, he has learned from TB’s errors and the exaggerated anticipation of his own faults which have been writ so large in so many places.
It was pleasing that he avoided sacking ministers so publically in Downing St – “The Walk of Shame” as it is put, by speaking with everone involved, or who might have expected to be involved in his Commons Rooms. So much for the clunking fist.
His gravitas now isolates Cameron as a Blair like figure, and it is a sad fact but true, that, as Tony Blair rightly diagnosed, the public have had enough of that style, at least for some time to come.
Blair didn’t fall nor was he pushed; he wisely judged that it was time to go, and went. Had he really wished to stay I bet he would, but politics is the art of the possible, not a masochistic exercise, and his talents will be turned to his satisfaction and the public benefit elsewhere.
July 2, 2007 at 6:21 pm |
Hi Tony,
I don’t actually think he walks on water, y’know. But I DO believe that in a moment of weakness – the time his heart problem must have been on his mind – he was forced to declare his hand by those around Brown, with Brown’s full knowledge. I may be proved wrong one day, but that is my humble opinion, thus far.
But he DID make a mistake in giving notice of his notice.
Anyway, forgive me if I am at times over effusive. I’m allowed to be so, at my own blog ;0)
Still haven’t got much to say about Brown. So far he has only behaved in the same way as Blair would have in this terrorist business. And he’s used the same phrases.
What do you think about this page, btw?
http://keeptonyblairforpm.wordpress.com/blairs-bombs-in-the-land-of-war-islamic-theology-rules-ok/
July 2, 2007 at 11:03 pm |
Of course, Blair-friend – %-) – we all see things our own way, I hope.
I have seen the Observer’s inteviewee on the box, reminds me of the recovering victims of pseudo-Christian sects, and the Bader-Meinhof gang etc.
His view is undoubtedly nearer the truth than those in the the “liberal” press and its acolytes in the rest of the media, who often have quite different motives.
As I have reiterated elsewhere for some time, the ongoing terrorism favours the Governing Party, suits Brown who has a steady head with steady hands, and as Blair has repeatedly said is here for a generation or more, regardless of Iraq or any other particular intervention those opposed to Islamo-fascism might make.
Janet Daley’s article has the ring of truth on the subject of Brown http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/07/02/do0201.xml and I had my say too.
Of course if TB can make any headway with the Palestinians and Israelis he will have done rather well. US Senator George Mitchell is a model for the sort of limited intervention which might be useful, though Mitchell was thought of as fairly neutral, as Blair is not.
If he can pursuade the Israelis to accept that the occupied territories and the settlements which stop a viable Palestine national state being a possibility are negotiable then he will have performed a similar role imho.
Gordon Brown and his Government may yet manage to make headway re the Islamicist tendancies amoung muslim youth. I think he intends to have an influence on young people in Africa etc – the Blair – Brown duo share ideals and have worked together for many years to move such matters along.
It may be that the team is still in effect, but
in another mode. We shall see, perhaps.
July 3, 2007 at 12:29 am |
Wasn’t George Mitchell involved in Northern Ireland in Blair’s settlement efforts? I’m sure he was; but I can’t quite recall if his influence lived up to its billing. I think perhaps not.
What they say of Blair’s negotiating skills is that he makes people on all sides feel that he understands and empathises with each of them. We’ll see.
Had a look at the telegraph article – got fed up reading most of the right-wing twaddle. Didn’t spot your comment, Tony. Left a few words, though, along my usual lines ;0)
I DO have concerns that now that Blair is off the scene and we only have the ’steady as she goes and don’t upset the children’ Brown and the ‘Blair Mark II but a little bit lefter and nicer’ Cameron, UKIP, NF and BNP could grab a good few votes next time round following the main parties’ refusal to tackle the Islamist threat.
You are probably right about the Brothers B and their relationship. They’ve probably moved on more sure-footedly than their followers have.
Anyway, long live democracy!
July 3, 2007 at 8:27 am |
Re Geo Mitchell, from Wikipoedia: “Since 1995, he has been active in the Northern Ireland peace process as U.S. Special Envoy to Northern Ireland. Mitchell first led a commission which established the principles on non-violence to which all parties in Northern Ireland had to adhere and subsequently chaired the all-party peace negotiations which led to the Belfast Peace Agreement signed on Good Friday 1998. Mitchell’s personal intervention with the parties was crucial to the success of the talks. He was succeeded as special envoy by Richard Haass.”
There were many steps to where they are now, I think this was clearly several.
Daley begins: “This is Gordon Brown’s moment. The terror attacks (and his response to them) have established the tone of his premiership as surely as the death of the Princess of Wales (and Tony Blair’s reaction to it) did for his predecessor’s. No temperament could be better suited to the times than Mr Brown’s: all that famously dour ponderousness has looked, during the past three days, absolutely appropriate. All those supposed character flaws – his failure to emote, his absence of informality, his distant, slightly authoritarian air – are suddenly hugely reassuring.”
They have always been scared of any exceptionally capable Labour Leader, it is such a novelty to see anything other than a compete character assassination. Wilson ditto. Kinnock, Foot and Callaghan they treated with contempt.
I think Brown and Labour will tackle the Islamo-fascists, (an arrest in Austrailia just reported) we haven’t got a straightforward continuation of Blair’s Government, best to Wait and See . . .
As we have just seen, Harold MacMillan’s constant concern still applies: ‘Events, dear boy, events.’
July 3, 2007 at 8:52 am |
Thanks for that Tony.
Yes, I take your point. And Janet Daley is a Tory (American? – am I thinking of the right person?)
Daley may have been on strong coffee when she wrote this.
Do you know what one of the most viewed links here is, apart from PMQs? Tony Blair on Princess Diana’s death.
I’ve only viewed Brown talking once on his response to the terror attacks, and found myslef saying, “er, yes … haven’t we heard all that before, only better?”
I’ll go back and have another listen, Tony, just for you, but somehow I don’t think I’m going to be inspired.
So, I’m yet to be impressed by your man, and you will understand why. But please feel free to write about him as much as you like.
I’m off up to Glasgow tomorrow, btw. Hope the airport’s open!
I did have a wry smile at Salmond’s disowning of ANY terrorist connection to Scotland – to paraphrase -
“Ach they’re a’ sassenach terrorists! We huvnay goat any here in this land o’ milk and whisky”.
Silly man.
If reports are correct, terrorism in the form of the hippocratic oath takers, has been enbedded in Glasgow hospitals.
You can’t escape today’s threats Mr Salmond just because you don’t like Tony Blair. Welcome to power.
And so much for the argument that the terrorists took the wrong turning off the M6 and were in fact on the way to Edinburgh to shake Brown up a bit. Imaginative thoughts of Salmond?
July 3, 2007 at 9:45 am |
You may feel that what Brown said sounded like what Blair would have said, but I am clear that the mollusc Salmond spoke in his amused recollection of Harold Wilson’s style on such occasions.
The assembled reporters didn’t think to ask any questions, he was so unconvincing they were phased. (felt as though they were in the wrong dimension I thought). He seemed so pleased with himself, such a nasty piece of work.
The Islamo-fascists, as Hassan Butt, to whom you referred via your link above, makes clear, hate the lot of us and our ways of life.
Brown’s Britishness campaign (until the policies are fully formed this seems the best way of describing it) will be a help. Especially the insistance that incomers learn English.
My muslim flatmate is on his way back to Algeria for a month’s holiday, quite untouched by all this, thankfully.
I think the BNP etc are a busted flush, tolerance is reasserting itself in great measure very quickly. The European constitutional issues have aroused dyspepsia rather than fire and brimstone, outside the Torygraph, of course.
These terrorists seem to be foreigners for a change, which is encouraging in a way. Be nice to think that home grown muslims have respect or at least fear for the law, if they do not agree with Government policies and actions.
I think Salmond was trying to make that point from a solely Scottish point of view, not very well though, should stay under his stone . . .
Enjoy your trip, lay off the deep fried mars bars.
July 3, 2007 at 9:53 am |
As usual I can’t really disagree with you on the above.
Yes, I think the same of Salmond; though strangely my brother thinks he’s OK!!! I’ll change his mind when I see him!
I know you’re joking – but I am allergic to chocolate – well, sort of. And ‘deep fried’ has never been my thing. By the way, in case you’re interested, most of my relatives in Scotland hardly touch a drop of alcohol – no religious qualms or anything – just ‘boring’, it seems! Irn Bru’s the fave ;0)
July 3, 2007 at 10:31 am |
No net ready Ardbeg or Laphraiog then . . ?
Pity . . .
July 3, 2007 at 10:56 am |
Don’t get me wrong – there’ll be all sorts of brands on offer – and the other half and I enjoy a malt or three! Family are not abstinence types, btw. But two kilted Scots with only one wee glass of whisky and water between them is kind of unexpected, is it not?
Don’t think too BADLY of us, please ;0)
CHEERS!
July 3, 2007 at 11:23 am |
My late father always regarded Scotland as the old enemy, along with the Austrailians . . .
Export of Irn Bru woud have been regarded as a just cause for War.
But then he didn’t like single Islay malts, admire Brown’s capabilities or have any Scottish friends, so I can take a relaxed view, and confine my loathing to the Scunner Salmond.
July 3, 2007 at 11:52 am |
Well said – Salmond, the self-proclaimed King of Scots (!) is definitely a wee scunner!
Not a stoater, as is Blair!
Can you hear my Scottish accent returning? Two of my kids, when THEY have had a drink, tell me I sound more Scottish, even if I’ve only been indulging in my usual sober cup of tea!!
Must be cos they’re only half Scottish. Wee souls.
July 3, 2007 at 12:15 pm |
My family lived in Whitby and then near Sunderland while they were littles, and they occasionally drift into those accents, or Devon where they were born.
The bairns have definately grown away, though!
July 3, 2007 at 1:40 pm |
The queen whelk Salmond has found another reason to habituate himself on tv, perhaps you could take some anti-fouling paint north with you?
July 3, 2007 at 1:51 pm |
Drat! Missed that!
July 5, 2007 at 8:47 pm |
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/byelections/story/0,,2118232,00.html
“Yesterday @ 11.45am Blair turns out to back Sedgefield candidate”
I think the BBC/ITV/Sky are trying to avoid any of this as they don’t want to overshadow Brown.
July 7, 2007 at 10:33 pm |
Hi Marc,
How uncharacteristically thoughtful of them! I suppose Brown needs as much help as he can get to upstage Blair. And if it’s a media-led thing – keeping Blair out of the news for a bit – well, I think he’s happy to be out of the spotlight for the time being. BUT, I can guarantee it won’t be long before we are aware of Blair again on the world stage.
July 8, 2007 at 4:36 pm |
Open Letter to Tony Blair from the Young Men and Women of Palestine
“It is Our Future After All!”
Dear Mr. Blair,
We are the young men and women of Palestine.
We write to you from our Palestinian home that is in transition, wanting to seize the moment to co-create a successful Palestinian state.
We are the Future; we wish to participate in shaping our future!
We are young, educated, forward thinking, and globally-minded men and women. We hold advanced degrees in Engineering, Information Technology, Sciences, Law and the Humanities.
We need a partner in the world community who will give us a chance to show our leadership.
We know that you, Mr. Blair, do not subscribe to the perception that all young Palestinians are blinded by ideologies or a limited vision of Palestine.
We are very keen on initiating an international dialogue with an overarching vision and overarching goals.
We want to lead an accelerated process towards peace, one that guarantees for both Palestinians and Israelis their rights and their future.
We extend our invitation to young Israelis to work with us towards the common good, and to build with us the bridge needed for true peace.
We would like to bring to the world’s attention that a new generation of young Palestinians has emerged and is connected to the world through Google, yahoo, Facebook, MySpace …
We would like to bring to the world’s attention that our worldview represents the majority in Palestine, despite the media and the international community’s attention on radical behavior. (For every helpless, angry or misguided Palestinian brother or sister, there are thousands of us who are holding the hands of our fellow Palestinians to forge forward towards a successful Palestine. )
We are ready to serve as a conduit to wide scale change and make positive systemic contributions to our culture, our educational and legal systems, government and social institutions.
We believe in capacity building and empowering Palestinians to move from where they are now to where they need to be.
We can serve as a bridge between Western culture and Arab culture.
We believe in building a Palestinian model for societal development that is culture-appropriate to our Palestinian values and we can deliver the concepts of indigenous democracy in ways that our people can accept and embrace
We can co-lead an international dialogue about Peace. Most importantly our unique contribution will be to translate the outcome of the bi-lateral agreements and accords in a way that our culture can embrace.
We aim to produce positive responses to any accord that focuses on building a healthy Palestinian state. We want to avoid the failures of the the Oslo Accord, where our leaders did not communicate the desired outcome to us and our people. The decisions made unilaterally by a disengaged leadership came as a shock to an unprepared culture that rejected a premature deal.
We are mindful of the breakdown in communication between our leadership and our people, especially with the youth.
We can form that link to translate international decisions into local implementations.
We ask you to deal with new faces and young people. As you interact with our formal leadership, we need you to encourage the inclusion of our positive voices. We will work very well with people in leadership positions whose expertise and strategic thinking are well respected.
We want to be a free Palestine, that is our goal!!
We know that as prerequisites to Palestinian Statehood we need to achieve the following:
Build healthy institutions for a well functioning governement
Build capacity in our people to enable them to take Palestine to the 21st century
Address holistically the psycho-social problems inside the Palestinian communities caused by decades of conflict.
Build sound economic, educational, judiciary, religious and healthcare systems for a well-functioning society.
We are dedicated to a democratic Palestine and to an accelerated process leading to true democracy.
We are gathering the hearts and minds of Palestinians towards a common goal and shared values: To build Palestine and make it succeed in the 21 st century
We know that as Palestinians we have a unique opportunity to build bridges, cross over divides, create common purpose and take the leadership role, not just in Palestine but in the entire Middle East, and not just here, but around the world. We want to stand tall, accept the challenge, point the way, challenge others and frame a new Palestine.
WE come from Ramallah, Nablus, al khalil, Bethlehem, Jenin, Gaza, Jerusalem, Jericho, Beit Sahour, Qalquiliya ….WE ARE PALESTINE
It is Our Future After All …. It is the time to give us a chance.
Sincerely,
Young Integral Palestinian Leaders
July 1, 2007
http://www.humanemergencemiddleeast.org/open-letter-to-Tony-Blair.php
July 8, 2007 at 7:54 pm |
Thank you for your message. Hopefully it will be read by Mr Blair. In my humble opinion if anyone is ready, willing and able to put his heart and soul into this task it’s our former prime minister.
I will add your link to other pages in this blog.
http://www.humanemergencemiddleeast.org/
The best of luck to you all.
July 15, 2007 at 10:52 pm |
See http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6896760.stm
Small extracts from a BBC interview.
July 23, 2007 at 6:30 pm |
The Telegraph has an article today:
“Speaking from his home in New York, James Wolfensohn, a former World Bank president who resigned after only 13 months as envoy, said the job was doomed because Israel and America had undermined him. Unless this situation changed, Mr Wolfensohn said Mr Blair would effectively be wasting his time.”
Not encouraging. I hope that Bush & co are straight with giving this job, Blair could be doing a lot of good work re Global Warming instead.
July 23, 2007 at 11:21 pm |
Yes, I read this Tony. I think things have changed enormously recently, though. Blair is trusted by Bush like a brother, and they both NEED to be seen to be pursuing peace in the whole region, to put impetus into the struggle for support from others in Iraq & Afghanistan. It still sickens me that our other powerful ‘allies’ still refuse largely to put their troops in the front line.
The Taleban picking off German hostages in Afghanistan is designed to weaken public opinion and their politicians even more. Thank goodness their present chancellor Angela Merkel has more ‘balls’ than Schroeder and even France at the time of Kosovo. Blair has influence with her and Sarkozy. It’s just public opinion which is against.
Politics – the art of the possible. And Blair likes to ‘give the impossible a go’, does he not?
It’s only two days a week in the Middle East, Tony. Blair can do the climate the rest of the time ;0)
WOW – as my new commenter describes him – Walks On Water.
July 24, 2007 at 8:39 am |
If someone cannof pursuade Bush, his successors and a majority of the american people that they ahve to take action, not just wait for thje Chinese and Indians to do as they are told, we may all have to WOW.
July 24, 2007 at 6:07 pm |
ABSOLUTELY!
Wonder who?
July 25, 2007 at 11:29 am |
Some Florida politician after his/her state is flooded rather worse than the UK midlands is now perhaps?
Or after the tidal wave reflected from the Canary Islands affects the whole of their eastern coast?
July 26, 2007 at 10:47 pm |
I understand there are MANY environmentalists in the USA, it’s just this administration that’s been a little on the slow side – cos, well, it’s republican.
Although when we were in California a few years ago, the republican friends we stayed with had been using cold water in their washing machines since the Los Angeles power cuts.
They now live in Florida – and last year was the first year since they moved there were hardly any hurricanes. Wonder what this August will hold.
July 29, 2007 at 7:54 am |
Tempted to point out that California is hardly a part of the USA, nearer being an independent country. And many Americans wish Florida was too . . .
Middle America is the principle target for pursuasion imho. Places where it is freezing much of the winter, often 100f in the summer.
Sophisticated mobile Americans are probably less of a problem. Let us hope they don’t elect another oil millionaire . . .
July 29, 2007 at 7:57 am |
Oh, a college educated friend whom I chat with on the net, who lives in such a part of middle america, believes that the USA will be “carbon neutral” soon.
She knows the polar bears are losing their habitat, watches natural history progs, but has little grasp of how immense the problem is.
July 29, 2007 at 10:57 am |
Way to go, then.
July 29, 2007 at 6:26 pm |
Which, together with his extreme suitability for that proselyting role, is why TB is neeed on THAT case
July 29, 2007 at 10:46 pm |
Yes, hopefuly, Tony.