Blair – 1st Permanent EU President? Qui? Moi?

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• Watch the full Blair speech(around 30 minutes) to the UMP meeting in Paris, 12th January. Scroll down list on right to “Accueil de Tony Blair” (His welcome and speech).
• Updates & Addenda
• Reports & Thoughts on Blair’s Presidency Prospects

UPDATE - 7th May, 2008

Président Sarkozy déclare le “non, mon ami”

What a pity. But I am not so sure what to make of this.

[Quel dommage. Mais je ne suis pas sûr ce qui à faire de ceci.]

Time … and politics … will tell. [Le temps... et la politique... indiqueront.]

If Mr Blair is not to lead the EU it will be Europe’s loss, in my humble opinion. And in 36 months, they may well wonder if they got it all wrong. [Si M. Blair ne doit pas mener l'EU que ce sera la perte de l'Europe, à mon avis humble.]

And in 36 months they may wonder if they made the right decision. [Et en 36 mois ils peuvent se demander s'ils prenaient la bonne décision.]

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UPDATE – 27th March, 2008

Brown to Sarkozy: “I back Blair for EU Presidency, mais naturellement”

2nd February, 2008

William Hague on this YouTube video on Tony Blair’s EU “Presidency” and Brown’s reaction to the ‘nauseating, glutinous praise oozing from every Head of Government’

UPDATE – 20th February, 2008

The Guardian says there is a STOP BLAIR as EU PRESIDENT CAMPAIGN running. Good.

It’s about time the other contenders crept out of the woodwork to let us see the colour of their inspirational abilities. Then they can all crawl back in again. I suggest that if Mr Blair wants the job, in four to six months time, he’ll be back as the hot favourite. Those Europeans who were firmly against Iraq and the Bush/Blair alliance will see things differently. A season is a long time in politics. Just wait until Autumn.

26th January, 2008

PREMIER TO PRESIDENT?

Just couldn’t resist adding this. On Radio 4’s “Week in Westminster” this morning, Matthew D’Ancona treated us to some of William Hague’s oratory. Hague, a former Conservative leader, was and still is a masterful parliamentary debater. Not that it did him any good against THE Master, as he himself admitted. This piece of imagery in the Europe debate was brilliantly conjured and delivered.

Go to the Week in Westminster site here, or try clicking directly to it here. (I’m not sure how long it stays available). If you go to their site, use the arrows to click through to the last 3 minutes of the broadcast. At “Listen Again” – put in “Week in Westminster” for the 26th January 2008. Or click here to read it at the end of this page.

19th January, 2008

Note: Just changed the month above. Apologies. Why didn’t any of you tell me I was ahead of myself, (in characteristic Blairite fashion)?

Comment at end

THE ‘HIGH-SPEED MOTORBOAT’ LEAVING US BRITS IN HIS WAKE

Amazing how little coverage there has been in the UK media of Tony Blair’s speech to Sarkozy’s UPM party in Paris last weekend. We really are an island race. As our former prime minister continues on his upward trajectory on the world stage, (to mix metaphors), our press turns the other way, almost as if it doesn’t matter.

They’ll catch up when they’ve caught on to just how much it DOES matter.

It seems he stole “the high-speed motorboat” label (a French saying) from Monsieur le President. M Sarkozy didn’t seem to mind a bit. He is proud to be Blair’s number one cheerleader in continental Europe and for good reason.

Quote from here:

“Tony Blair, the former Labour Prime Minister British … succeeded in stealing the high-speed motorboat from Nicolas Sarkozy thanks to a speech, in French, full of humour.”

Note: I’ve searched but failed to find the full Blair transcript online in English or French. So I’ve decided to translate bits of it myself, from the video. Not word-for-word, but enough to provide the gist. I have added some commentary on his speech’s reception by the audience of 2000 – 3000 (estimates vary – probably 2500).

(French – to translate any French page you find, copy the url into Babel Translation )

You can watch the full Blair speech to the UMP meeting in Paris, 12th January 2008. Click here to listen while you read this. It will open in a new window. Here’s some of what was going on:

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Speaking to his UMP conservative party, the French president Nicolas Sarkozy, did not overtly propose Tony Blair for the post of the first President of the EU. But his position was quite clear, nonetheless.

Praising Mr Blair as “one of Europe’s greats”, he said this:

“When we appoint this president of the European union, I want us to set the bar high and not aim for the lowest common denominator”.

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A Warm Welcome – ALL CHANGE message in French in France

M Sarkozy seemed to be reaching for Mr Blair’s hand a couple of times as they ascended and crossed the stage.

Oui, j’ai appris que M Sarkozy est francais… mais toujours! We Brits still often have trouble with the kissing on both cheeks business, much less hand-holding with fellow leaders; especially of the same sex!

 

The picture above reminds me of the verbally and charm challenged Glaswegian with attitude trying to pick up a girl in a city dance hall:

He: Are you dancing?; She: Are you asking?; He: I’m asking.; She: I’m dancing.

Ou …

Etes vous dansant ? ; Etes vous demandant ? ; Je demande ; Je danse.

 “TONY… TONY… TONY…”

Accompanied by stirring and somewhat heavenly music – “Ah .. ah .. ah .. ah” – as he entered the platform, Mr Blair was warmly welcomed with a resounding standing ovation and welcoming hand clapping from the delegates. That was before he spoke.

It was to get yet more embarrassing for Mr Blair. Echoing the grateful Kosovan refugees whom he had helped release from Milosevic’s tyranny, this was something he probably did NOT expect.

The audience, all on their feet before he’d uttered a word, started chanting “Tony, Tony, Tony…”

Evidently his reputation as a reformer they’d love to emulate, outflanks any other reputation.

Si sensible, les francais, ne sont-ils pas?

The taken aback former PM responded, “Thank you, thank you. I’m not used to that. (Merci … je ne suis pas habitue a cela”.)

I recall he also shared that thought some years ago at the US Congress, when greeted in such a fashion.

He continued, in Paris:

“My dear friends, I’m going to try to make my speech in French.” (Mes chers amis, je vais essayer de faire mon speech en francais.)
 

[Round of appreciative applause]

With his customary touch of humour, he continued … “My advisors told me that if I did it in English no-one would understand me”.

A few “ooohs and aaahs” followed this remark, as they tried to decide if this was self derision or an insult to their language skills. Blair, the consummate communicator, would have been forgiven ANYTHING here. After all, he WAS speaking in French.

After thanking the dignitaries and referring to continuing “l’entente cordial” he launched into familiar territory to British audiences on “changing the ideas of the Left & the Right.”

Recognising that political parties are naturally proud of their traditions, he said that just as important today as the differences between the Left & the Right, are the differences between politics which look backwards and those which look forward.

“Tomorrow versus yesterday, open versus closed.”

TECHNOLOGY & CHANGE 

“Think of things ten years ago – and now – technology – mobile phones”.

He said he got his first mobile phone six months ago, the day he left Downing Street. He then told the story of texting someone who didn’t have his name in their phone’s address book. They texted back saying, “Sorry, but who are you”. He joked to his audience, “Unbelievable. I left yesterday and forgotten already”.

Other points on change:

• Our children use today’s technology naturally. Technology has transformed industry, genetics for example. New methods of working; the impact on electronics.
• Change demands courage; change and choice. The old methods of working are obsolete.
• New methods of working. The impact of tourism, “change, change and more change.”
• Mass production is finished, the comfort zone in the public service is finished.
• Change in the classroom.
• The best service for the public.
• Providing the best service FOR the people. The public are demanding change, not the politicans or industrialists.
• Change versus stagnation – the differences in politics, whether left or right.
• To become a monument or a movement?
• Change requires courage, engagement and above all reserves of energy, as ‘has Nicolas Sarkozy your president.’

He expanded, “Another leader, who will remain nameless, said to me one day -”

“Sarkozy, il est tres tonic, non?”

Et j’ai repondu, ” Non, je n’ai pas remarque.”

(“Sarkozy is very energetic, isn’t he?

And I replied, “No, I haven’t noticed’”.)

And then, drawing laughter from delegates, Blair cited Sarkozy’s “energy, in all areas” – a reference to the recently-divorced French leader’s love affair with a former top model and singer.

Click to watch a few seconds of the Blair humour, which went down well with his audience, and even with M Sarkozy.

And then, familiar themes:

NEW VALUES

The sole question for politicians – how are you prepared for modernisation?

We must maximise opportunities, so that everyone profits.

The future or the past?

He teased his audience; “I believe in progressive politics. In France I’d be in …. er… the government … (laughter from audience) … no, no, I’d be … in a socialist party with the heart (courage?) to transform itself.

He also dwelt on education, the family-work balance, the ‘new world’, immigration, relations with other countries.

He said that we need to look forward, not backwards; and, we work better when we work together in Europe.

OTHER POINTS:

• We are only effective against crime, terrorism, security, bio-technology etc if in all areas we work together in Europe, united and strong.
• Change is never welcomed.
• Everyone protests, but once they are made, they always accept them.
• He mentioned British progress and reform over the last ten years: the minimum wage, pensions reform, equality for homosexuals.

PERSONAL NHS EXPERIENCE

[Picture: 2nd Oct 2004, Mr Blair leaving hospital after a routine catheter ablation to correct a heart flutter]

He mentioned his own hospitalisation for a ‘minor operation’ (heart), while he was bringing controversial changes into the health service.

“Mr Blair”, said the anaesthetist holding an enormous hypodermic syringe, “I want to tell you something. I’ve never done this before.”

As the audience laughed in empathy, Mr Blair, arms outstretched, unbuttoning his jacket, made the not-so-subtle point that the Blair NHS works. Before them was the physical embodiment of that! With HIS energy, it was fairly inarguable? This man is FIT to be our president.

AND:

ACTIVE WELFARE STATE & PARTY ALLEGIANCE

“In the United States, I would be a Democrat, in the United Kingdom I am Labour. In France I would be … (pause) probably with the government”. He continued over laughter and applause. “No, I joke …. I would be with the socialist Party, and on the side of those who wish in their hearts to transform it”.

He then talked of the “the agenda of a new governorship”: “Education, and not regulation”, an “active and non-passive Welfare state”, “the work/life balance, new boundaries for the Welfare state”, and “trade unions partners of change and not of resistance”.

The way to reform demands leadership and taking decisions, even if you don’t always take people with you.

He ended on this note:

“Perhaps one day we will speak the same language, but which one – that is for another debate.”

He received a standing ovation at the start and the end of the speech. Watching this, it hardly surprises me that he is happier speaking to non-British audiences. Compared to the kind of dreadful treatment he habitually got from those he tried to reform at home, such as some at British Trades Union Congress meetings, it must be heaven. The ’scars on his back’ are fading now, but it might be a warning for M Sarkozy as to what he is taking on.

Courage mon brave!

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REPORTS & THOUGHTS ON THE BLAIR PRESIDENCY PROSPECTS

There’s plenty being said about this in plenty of places. And the prospect is hardly new. (See the American Counter Punch article from 2003 below). It seems that Mr Blair is both the outsider and the favourite in the EU presidency race.

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Read Al Jazeera’s report here.

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Valéry Giscard d’Estaing says “Non”. Pourquoi pas?

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The Economist suggests that M Sarkozy is playing a blinder on the innocent Mr Blair, while secretly backing his own man. Watching your back is a skill early developed in politics. Mr Blair has had plenty of practice and nothing should be dismissed. But if this is really M Sarkozy’s plan, I’d be VERY surprised.

This Brussels site has taken up the Economist’s song:

Translated from the site in Babel:

Many, in Brussels, thinks that the candidate will have to come from a country pertaining to the centre of the Union, i.e. of a Member State of the zone euro. Blair, even if he is internationally known, is too politically marked, as precisely point out it the two wise old men of the French right-hand side. Will Sarkozy hear them? Or does play the Blair chart for better disarming London and finally obtaining the designation of Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg the Prime Minister? A tactic which would be far from being idiot.

Any more straws around to clutch?

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Reuters report by Nick Antonovics

Sat Jan 12, 9:10 AM ET

PARIS (Reuters) – Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair kindled speculation he was running to be the first president of the European Union by praising the bloc in a speech in Paris as France prepares to oversee the appointment process.

At the invitation of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Blair told a conference of France’s centre-right ruling UMP party on Saturday that EU countries could achieve more in key policy areas by acting together rather than as individual nation states.

“It is not a question of left or right, but a question of the future or the past, of strength or weakness,” said Blair, speaking in French.

“Terrorism, security, immigration, organized crime, energy, the environment, science, biotechnology and higher education. In all these areas, and others, we are much stronger and able to deliver what our citizens expect from us as individual nations if we are part of a strong and united Europe,” Blair said.

The post of president of the European Council — which meets at head of state and government level usually four times a year — is due to be created by the 27-nation grouping in the second half of 2008, when France will chair EU ministerial meetings.

Sarkozy already said in October that Blair or Luxembourg Prime Minister were obvious candidates. A UMP party grandee, Jean-Pierre Rafarin, wrote in Saturday’s Le Monde newspaper that Blair’s experience in Europe positioned him well for the European institutions of the future.

Speaking to the UMP conference immediately after Blair, Sarkozy described him as “one of Europe’s greats” and praised his role in persuading Britain to sign up to the bloc’s new reform treaty.

But he stopped short of offering Blair public backing for the post, which will not be created until the treaty has been ratified by all EU countries.

“When we appoint this president of the European Union, I want us to set the bar high and not aim for the lowest common denominator,” Sarkozy said.

Sarkozy said he hoped he would be the last person to hold the bloc’s existing six-month rotating presidency before the new president, with a two-and-a-half-year term in office, took over.

Sarkozy said he wanted a political Europe with common energy, immigration and environment policies, but in comments that could create tensions with Blair’s successor in Downing Street Gordon Brown, also pleaded for common agricultural and defense policies.

“Europe can’t be an area of 450 million people and one of the richest in the world and rely for its protection on either chance or the United States,” Sarkozy said.

“I am a friend of the United States but I insist that Europe give itself autonomous means to defend itself because if one is not capable of this, one is not capable of assuming one’s independence,” Sarkozy added.

In his speech, Blair praised Sarkozy’s leadership and joked that he could quite easily fit in with his government.

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From January 2007 meeting of Blair & Sarkozy in Downing Street

LONDON (Reuters) – French conservative presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy praised Prime Minister Tony Blair on Tuesday, saying France had much to learn from the actions of his Labour government.
“European Socialists should be proud of what one of us has done,” the rightist interior minister told reporters at Downing Street, before hastily saying that he meant “one of them”.

French Socialists were up in arms earlier this month when Sarkozy quoted heroes from leftist ranks in a keynote speech. They are likely to be less upset over his decision to adopt Blair as a potential role model.

French Socialists have not tried to court Blair, whom they regard as a centrist, especially since his decision to join the U.S.-led attack on Iraq in 2003.

Sarkozy, visiting London three months before France’s presidential election, distanced himself from Blair over Iraq but said there was still plenty to admire.

“He is a man who counts in Europe,” Sarkozy said.

“It is not a question of grabbing hold of a model that isn’t ours, but at the same time Tony Blair is a man whose pragmatism has served his country well,” he told reporters.

Blair will be attending a meeting on 31st Januaryin the Sorbonne, of the “Progressists” of François FillonFrench Prime Minister and close ally of Monsieur Sarkozy.

Mr Blair will talk about universalization and development, the role of the State, new tools for fight against inequalities.There will also be three round tables conflabs with political, expert and intellectual guests.

David Silverman AFP Tony Blair, December 13, 2007 in Jerusalem

 

 

 

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French politicians dit “non” a Blair.

Blair unfit to run EU, say French political veterans.

By John Lichfield in Paris

Published: 18 January 2008

Two of France’s senior statesmen have launched an ABB movement – “Anyone But Blair” – in an attempt to prevent the former prime minister becoming the first president of the European Union next year.Although much of the support for Mr Blair comes from President Nicolas Sarkozy, the former French president Valéry Giscard d’Estaing and the former prime minister Edouard Balladur, who is M. Sarkozy’s mentor and friend, have declared Mr Blair to be unfit for the job.Both men say Europe’s first president must come from a country which is fully committed to all EU policies, including the euro. Mr Balladur – breaking publicly with President Sarkozy – also says Mr Blair is too close to the United States to be chosen as a “fitting spokesman for Europe”. Their views are echoed, off the record, by senior officials in Belgium and Italy. But Mr Blair is said to have some support in eastern Europe, Germany and Spain. Whether Mr Blair actually wants the job remains unclear.A semi-permanent European president, or president of the European Council, will be chosen by the 27 member governments this year. At present, EU business is organised, and ministerial and summit meetings chaired, by a different government every six months.

Under the EU Reform Treaty now being ratified by member states, a European Council president will be elected for two and a half years by a qualified majority of governments. He or she will take office next year, after all 27 countries have approved the treaty.

The “president of Europe” would chair summits, and some ministerial meetings but have few real powers. He or she would serve with the existing presidents of the European Commission (the EU executive) and the European Parliament (legislature).

But the job is expected to achieve symbolic importance, especially for the rest of the world. For the new post to achieve this kind of weight and seriousness, President Sarkozy says, it must go to a man, or woman, of proven stature. He began pointing to the possibility of a President Blair almost as soon as he reached the Elysée Palace last year. “[Mr Blair] is a very remarkable man,” he said in June. “He is the most European of Britons; it would be intelligent to think of him.”

Last weekend, M. Sarkozy invited Mr Blair to address his centre-right party, the Union Pour un Mouvement Populaire (UMP) in Paris. Mr Blair, in French, made a passionate plea for a “collective, united and strong Europe” to face the challenges of the 21st century. This was taken by many of those present as a preliminary application for the new job in Brussels.

Hence the alarmed reaction of M. Giscard and M. Balladur. M. Giscard, 81, told a committee of the French National Assembly he would not be a candidate but added that the job must go only to a politician from a country which “respected all Europe’s commitments” and whose public opinion was whole-heartedly European. In other words, no Tony Blair and no Brits.

M. Balladur, who was prime minister from 2003 to 2005, said in the newspaper Le Monde: “To be accepted by all, the president of the Union must come from a country… determined to build European independence, especially in defence and foreign affairs.

“How could Mr Blair embody this ambition when, in the disastrous episode in Iraq, he always clung zealously to the views of the US or even incited them? Mr Blair is, for sure, a remarkable person but he cannot be the symbol of a Europe which wants to exist.”

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The Right are by no means ALL with Sarkozy on Blair. This is the translation at Babel of this page.

From Martin Bureau AFP

British ex-First minister Tony Blair, January 12, 2008 with the congress of UMP in Paris

In spite of the implicit support of Nicolas Sarkozy and the triumphal reception reserved Saturday by its UMP party with the British ex-First minister, the candidature of Tony Blair for the future presidency of the European Union does not cause the adhesion of the French right-hand side.

Thus, the former Prime Minister Edouard Balladur is categorical: Mr. Blair does not have the profile, because it “cannot be the symbol of Europe which wants to exist”, he underlined Thursday in a platform with the daily newspaper the World.

If the majority of the persons in charge for UMP praise his “remarkable personality” or “the man charimastic”, it is its nationality which poses more the problem: Great Britain does not belong to Schengen space, has a foreign politics considered to be too pro-American, in particular on the war in Iraq, and especially is not in the zone euro.

“the future president must (…) belong to a country which complies with” all the European rules, Wednesday the former president Valery Giscard d’ Estaing underlined, who chaired convention charged to write the project of European constitution, criticizing the departures (“opting out”) from the Community rules practised by London.

In more felted terms, the Secretary of State to the European Businesses, Jean-Pierre Jouyet, does not say another thing: for this station, it is necessary “to take into account” the “respect of last engagements of each one of those which will postulate with these functions compared to European solidarity and the positions adopted by the Union on the international level”, it launched Tuesday evening to the deputies.

If Nicolas Sarkozy officially did not give his support for Tony Blair, it does not fail to praise the merits of a man described as “large of Europe”.

“Sarkozy is mistaken on the chances in Blair. Blair will never have the support of the EPP (Left popular European, gathering the preserving parties) and even less of the Socialists “, analyzes an UMP person in charge.

“Nicolas Sarkozy is advanced too quickly. I do not think that it is the good candidate. Even if it is most European of the British persons in charge, Blair is very Atlantic. In 2009, one will need refonder Europe. It is necessary to turn the page and to call upon authentic Europeans “, declared Thursday eurodéputée Marielle de Sarnez, arm right of the centre chief Francois Bayrou.

More careful, François Sauvadet, of the New Center, a party created by centrists to support Mr. Sarkozy, as estimates however him “as a president resulting from the zone euro would be a strong signal”.

“the choice of Blair seems really very, very difficult to me. How it would defend the euro, which conditions our growth, in the great international discussions?”, question yourself Axel Poniatowski, president UMP of the commission of the Foreign Affairs of the Parliament.

François Goulard (UMP) worries frankly about the support of Mr. Sarkozy. “It is a proof of more than its alignment on Bush”, said this deputy close to the ex-First Dominique de Villepin minister, which was the rival of the current Head of the State. For him, at Mr. Sarkozy, “the only true rupture, it is in foreign politics”.

“Not with the nomination of vassal of Bush!”, carry yourself the souverainist Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, opposed to the European treaty.

“Blair is the symbol of false modernity clinquante that any more the English do not support and to which the French become increasingly allergic”.

Rare are those, among the UMP deputies, to see of a good eye the Blair candidature. “It would incarnate this presidency very well. It is the best means of anchoring Great Britain well in Europe because we cannot do it without it “, estimates one of between-them, Marc Laffineur.

So, not all plain sailing for the high speed motor boat then.

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Martin Bureau AFP – the British ex-First minister Tony Blair, January 12, 2008 with the congress of UMP in Paris

Historical references to Blair’s approach to Europe compared with Brown’s

2001

This article in The Independent, on 22 November 2001 by Donald Macintyre reminds us that Mr Blair & Mr Brown frequently differed on the approach to the EU, if we needed reminding. Indeed a glance at recent books written on the pair shows the same dichotomy of views.

Anthony Seldon’s recent publication, Blair Unbound, coinciding with Blair’s departure from office, seems to conclude that Brown’s Five Economic Tests were a contrivance designed to block Blair’s EU developments at every turn.

Since they both agree on the recent treaty, bargained by Blair and signed (eventually) by Brown, are we right to ask if they are coming closer on this euro issue now? No ‘hub’ for the world, Mr Miliband, can stay out of the EU’s central wheel, if we are to hope to contain the awakening giants of China and India.

I wonder why I feel that Brown has neither the gut instinct nor the guts to take this step.

2003

My thoughts on the article below:

AMALGAMATING CURRENCIES

This CounterPunch article by Anthony Gancarski is particularly interesting in its prescience, written as it was almost 5 years ago!

But “war” on the dollar? In today’s world and with ascending nations snapping at western sliding economies’ heels, might it not be an “amalgation” (or “merger” if amalgamation has too many corporate conotations for you) between the euro and the US dollar that ‘M Le President Blair’ has in mind? A whole new configuration of the balance of money, trade and thus power?

Think ahead folks if you want to keep up with the high speed motorboat. Not that I’m suggesting he is thinking along these lines. But wherever he is, you can be sure he’s ahead of most of us.

And if this prospect frightens some American-shy Europeans, consider the alternative in the next 20 – 30 years. How many of us today even know the name of the Chinese currency? We will.

But since any currency merger of two of the largest trading blocs in the world smacks of worldwide government and we’re not quite ready for that yet (not until the little men arrive from Jupiter), there would be some selling to do to the public. On the other hand, all most people care about is the pound/dollar/euro in their pocket. If there is a prospect of endemic western recession and thus a complete turnaround in the wealth of the world as we know it, the day might come when we laugh at our nations’ attachment to their greenback, or equivalent.

Starvation focuses the mind.

As for the political economics of it all, well, that is for political economists to work out.

Then again, there is always the contrary view (from an anti-euro perspective)

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April 19, 2003

Blair’s War on the Dollar

Tony Blair: the Most Powerful Man in the World

by ANTHONY GANCARSKI

The British Prime Minister endured such trials in 2002 that he seemed destined to be ousted from his post, and 2003 didn’t start much better for him. Pilloried throughout his nation’s media as Bush’s lapdog, Blair looked to most in the world like an effete figure at the helm of an irrelevant nation. Some treated him with a measure of respect, hoping he’d play good cop to the US President’s embodiment of Nixon’s “madman theory”. But only a measure — most wondered where things had gone so wrong for the formerly bright-eyed PM.

That said, the last month or so has been something of a coup for Blair. The removal of Hussein, tricky at first, moved with a prearranged swiftness by the time coalition troops moved into Baghdad to what American television called “pockets of resistance.” With the antiwar position momentarily discredited, a rapprochement of sorts was struck with sparring partners like France’s Chirac, who declared that he was not put out by Hussein’s removal. All’s well that ends well, and a resurgent Tony Blair seems poised to call in some markers this year and beyond.

And, according to the Times of London , Blair’s starting to flex his long-dormant political muscle in some interesting ways.

“TONY BLAIR’s plans for a powerful new full-time president of Europe look set to become reality after the man charged with drafting a European Union constitution backed the project yesterday.

“Valery Giscard d’Estaing, the former French President who chairs the convention on Europe’s future, supported the EU’s biggest member states who argue that the Union needs a president if it is to punch its weight on the international stage.”

Who’s in on the initiative so far? France [whose Chirac first publicly floated the idea] and the UK, of course. Aznar’s Spain and Rassmussen’s Denmark, as well as Sweden. Generally, smaller states see the proposal as one intended to quiet their voices within the EU; this power grab, which isn’t what the small states agreed to when they joined, is as much as acknowledged by the former French President. As the Times puts it, “M Giscard made his views clear after protracted talks with leaders gathered in Athens to sign the treaty ushering in the ten new members. Asked how many countries opposed the idea of a president, he said: ‘When you assess these positions, one thing to take into account is the number of states. But we also have to take into account their populations, because we operate in a democratic way here. And the majority of the population is in favour of a somewhat more stable president.’”

The stability referred to here, of course, is that of a monolith. Those who opposed the construction of the EU on the grounds that the organization would sap their nations’ sovereignty have been proven right again in a key respect. Decisions of war and peace, even more so than now, will be dominated by the traditional powers of “Old Europe”, with the smaller states given little legal ground to object.

That much said, there is a payoff for this close cooperation between Chirac’s France and Blair’s Britain. If the US continues down its current reckless course of unilateral intervention, further schisms will be triggered in the US/UK alliance. Left to his own devices, Blair very well might have scuttled the British pound for the Euro already; certainly, that idea will pick up momentum with each move to undermine ties between London and Washington. The more integration there is between the EU and the UK, the better it is for the Euro and the worse it is for the dollar. Thus, it could be said that the EU Presidency will be strengthened at the expense of the United States and the citizens thereof.

Anthony Gancarski is a regular CounterPunch columnist. He can be reached at:

ANTHONY.GANCARSKI@ATTBI.COM

Interesting?

I think so.

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UPDATES & ADDENDA

Sunday, 20th January 2008:

This made me smile. I don’t watch PMQs now that their star has been extinguished, but this report by Matthew D’Ancona of the Telegraph on a Labour MP’s question to Brown raised my interest. Well, it would, wouldn’t it. Nice to know I’m not the only one watching the Rise & Rise of T Blair.

Reference Blair’s “… announcement of his candidacy for the presidency of the European Union, as a prelude to his candidacy for the presidency of the world, the universe and everything?”

 Excerpt:

‘It was one of those moments when Gordon all but puts his hands over his ears and says “la, la, la, la, I am not listening.” At Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday, Labour’s leading Eurosceptic, Ian Davidson, stood up and made a very naughty inquiry.

“Were the Prime Minister and his Government aware of his predecessor’s plan,” Mr Davidson said, ” to attend the conference of the main party of the French right to announce his candidacy for the presidency of the European Union, as a prelude to his candidacy for the presidency of the world, the universe and everything? Did the Prime Minister know of that intended candidacy when his predecessor was negotiating the European constitution, and did that not represent a conflict of interests?”

For a moment, the chamber resembled a Bateman cartoon with Mr Davidson as “the Man Who Asked a Question About Tony Blair”. The PM’s colleagues flinched. His circuitry smoked as the red mist descended. But in the end Gordon decided to ignore the question altogether, and, leafing through the Physics revision notes in front of him, he read from the red-starred page marked “Emergency Answer To All Questions about Blair” – an answer that had absolutely nothing to do with Mr Davidson’s point.

“My right hon. Friend the former Prime Minister,” Mr Brown declared dutifully, “is doing a wonderful job because he is speaking up for peace in the Middle East; I approve of his taking up any opportunity he gets to put his advocacy of a peaceful settlement for the Middle East, and he was right to do so.”

The PM will not be able to be so brazenly evasive when the Lisbon Treaty (formerly known as the EU Reform Treaty, formerly known as the EU Constitution) returns this week to the Commons for its Second Reading. Having welched on its manifesto promise to let the nation vote on the constitution, the Government has allocated more than a month of parliamentary time to the debate.

“It’s all smoke and mirrors,” admits one senior Labour figure. “We’re claiming it’s the greatest parliamentary event since the Corn Laws or the Impeachment of Warren Hastings, but everyone knows that a single amendment could ruin the entire ratification process and wreck the entire Treaty.”

Privately, ministers also know that they cannot win the tactical battle over the plebiscite. The least worst option for the Government is to get the inevitable Commons amendment calling for a referendum out of the way, and hope that the Labour whips are right that Mr Davidson’s mutiny amounts to a maximum of 30 MPs.’

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22nd January: An analysis at The International Herald Tribune of the two front-runners and of the actual job of EU President.Excerpt:”Now, according to one of official Brussels’ authoritative voices, Juncker (Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg), whose reputation is also that of a European federalist or super-state advocate, would be “impossible” for Britain to support.That’s a swath of complicated, vindictive stuff, all contradicting the EU’s unfulfilled promise to bring its politics closer to its people.Unlike America’s presidential primary elections, the start of Europe’s presidential selection process foretells very little to do with revivifying democracy.At this pace, the man Europe’s government leaders finally call president would take office less a representative of new European unity than the EU’s let’s-make-a-deal past.”

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William Hague (former Conservative party leader) – European Treaty Debate Excerpt (Hansard), 21st January, 2008Mr. Hague:

‘We can all picture the scene at a European Council sometime next year. Picture the face of our poor Prime Minister as the name “Blair” is nominated by one President and Prime Minister after another: the look of utter gloom on his face at the nauseating, glutinous praise oozing from every Head of Government, the rapid revelation of a majority view, agreed behind closed doors when he, as usual, was excluded. Never would he more regret no longer being in possession of a veto: the famous dropped jaw almost hitting the table, as he realises there is no option but to join in. And then the awful moment when the motorcade of the President of Europe sweeps into Downing street. The gritted teeth and bitten nails: the Prime Minister emerges from his door with a smile of intolerable anguish; the choking sensation as the words, “Mr President”, are forced from his mouth. And then, once in the Cabinet room, the melodrama of, “When will you hand over to me?” all over again.’

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Watch William Hague on “President” Blair.

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My thoughts: What’s English, French, Italian, Spanish, Dutch, Portuguese, Greek, Swedish, Polish, Romanian, Slovakian, Latvian etc + 15 more for “schadenfreude”?

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And just so that you don’t think I only ever read the supportive stuff on Tony Blair, here’s a little something about “the most powerful Empire in history”:What? America? Or a future China? Iran even? No. Europe.“The EU is easily the most popular and successful empire in history, for it does not dominate, it disciplines.”What was that I said about only reading supportive stuff about T Blair?

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Tags: 1. Tony Blair, EU President, France, Nicolas Sarkozy, Paris, speech, UMP, William Hague