Blairites (and even some Brownites) say: “Bring Back Tony Blair”

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• Guardian: Civil warn threatens Labour – “Brown will be gone by Christmas”

Guardian: ‘It may be bravado but former Blairites are warning that if the cabinet does not act before the party conference, there will be a revolt from below.

“The PLP is like a pressure cooker, and if the cabinet fails to act, the lid is going to blow, and it could be very messy,” one Blairite said.’

Comment at end

UPDATE, 27th July, 2008

After the Glasgow East disaster, the BBC reports that ‘former cabinet ministers’ are after Brown’s blood now. “FORMER” ministers? And here was I under the misapprehension that Jack Straw was still a minister! Not that I’ve noticed many of them recently. They’ve all become Nowhere Men. Maybe they always were; hiding behind their Loser of a leader. (The Beatles always understood the human condition better than many of today’s politicians it would seem!). And such is the present front row’s … bench’s quality that they even make you appreciate such former ministers as David Blunkett and Margaret Beckett. And there’s their problem … just WHO has the profile, ability, vision, charisma and sheer political nous to replace the present prime minister?

Don’t ask me – I might suggest someone that would cause a touch of the heebie-jeebies. Well, for the Tories!

And it seems Neil Kinnock, former Labour leader is being touted as the sacrifice, senior figure to clad himself in grey and hand the PM a whisky and a silver-handled pistol. Deja-vu – all over again! I asked him not to do it last time he was the chosen one to shift Blair. This time? Well, it’s up to you, Lord Kinnock. Dear, dear, what a sad end for your protégés, both.

24th May, 2008

EVENTS … EVENTS … EVENTS … TOO MANY TO KEEP UP WITH, MR CLUNKING FIST BROWN!

• Most Labour voters sock it to Brown: OUT!
• Charles Clarke socks it to Brown on … well … everything, more or less
• Wendy Alexander socks it to Brown on Independence Referendum
• Mandelson socks it to Brown on 10p tax
• Miliband socks it to Brown on “Green Is The New Red”
• Martin Kettle socks it to Labour-”Regroup” – but how?

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“… who will provide me with regular briefs” [drop jaw]

Is Rory Bremner brilliant, or what …?

A more acceptable version of Brown, than Brown. Watch him meld from Brown to Blair at around 1:40.

“You won’t see much of my new team as their role is to remain anonymous; as is the case with the rest of the cabinet”

So right!

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Remember this?

David Miliband, February 2007: “I predict that when I come back on this programme in six months or a year’s time, people will be saying ‘wouldn’t it be great to have that Blair back because we can’t stand that Gordon Brown’.”

Comment at end

10th May, 2008

BLAIR THE COMEBACK KID? No Chance!

He may not respond with these exact words …

‘TOO LATE’, SHE CRIED, AND WAVED HER WOODEN LEG!

… but it would amount to the same thing. “Thanks, but no thanks”.

[I recall an old friend using this ''wooden leg" phrase, and I could never quite work it out. A quick google search came up with a few obscure references, like this appropriate one. But Blair, the 'dead man walking' (New Statesman article, May 2006), is now well out of it. His party lost it when they chose to betray their leader and the country. There was barely a squeak of protest from any of them as the noose tightened around his neck. Well, the pipsqueaks are at it now. And the 'dead man' moniker has now passed to his successor (News Scotsman)

Who'd have believed it? Well, not to put too fine a point on it - me, for a start.

Of course we all know Mr Blair won't ... can't come back. He meant it when he left, and is now fully committed elsewhere. Some say over-committed. So - no chance. But it's interesting to learn that many punters were asking for his return last week during local election door-knocking. I suppose they thought, "they got rid of him without asking the voters, so now we, the voters want him back".

GUARDIANISTO JOURNOS CHEW THE CUD

It's been almost tear-wrenching to watch the commentariat in the aftermath of Labour's disastrous local elections. The Brown fan club eating their words. Almost to a man/woman they're demanding a refund and sending back their membership a la "disgusted, Tunbridge Wells". But their inconsistencies escape them in their despair. For example -

Jackie Ashley (in "All Gordon Can Do Is Fight On ... And Hope His Luck Turns") bemoans the likely impending leadership challenge:

'And by the autumn it may become irresistible to enough MPs. The calculation among potential replacements may change too. Instead of, "but I don't want to lead the opposition", it may be, "unless something is done, our defeat will be so big that we will be out of power for a decade, or 15 years - so let's try to limit the damage".'

She is lambasted by her commenters here

But this is one of the better and most far-sighted comments, imho:

'One unremarked upon long-term consequence of the last few days is that future political historians will recount the Blair-Brown spats of 1994-2007 very differently from the way that partisan hacks like Jackie covered them at the time. Blair will be seen as the wronged party, his government constantly destabilised by his arrogant, and ultimately incompetent, rival. With the benefit of hindsight -- especially after having witnessed the car-crash of the Brown premiership so far -- historians will pronounce the Labour Party vindicated in choosing Blair as leader in 1994. Brown will be seen as a hollow man whose greater talents lay in intra-party cabalism, but who would ultimately be found wanting at the highest level. The Brownite games that so undermined Blair and forced his early retirement -- games that Jackie and Polly enthusiastically played -- will be dismissed as the grotesquely self-indulgent actions of courtiers and propagandists who put their man's interests above those of the government.'

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Polly Toynbee (in "Labour has Nothing To Say and No Territory of Its Own") tries, for a moment, and pretty vainly, to turn the fire on the Tories. In the end she concedes:

"It is Labour that has become the stupid party - dumb, directionless, depressing. That's why the voters gave them that 24% sucker punch: it wasn't about ideology, it was about basic political competence."

There is only one option - to start all over again, scorched earth. Do what Labour did in 1994 or what Cameron did in 2005. Begin by rooting out everything that has made Labour's reputation toxic to voters - and rediscover everything that made Labour worth voting for.

'Look at Labour successes - the minimum wage, child poverty, children's centres, aid for Africa, free museums, NHS waiting lists, new health centres and schools well-stocked and well-staffed after those 18 miserable drought years of Thatcherism - there is much to be proud of. But all these were promises devised in the resurgent days before 1997. Has Labour still the appetite for anything as radical as its own first term? Can it recapture that insurgent spirit? If not, why would anyone vote them back in?'

And this comment offers no excuses for Brown's predicament:

'The biggest compliment that can be paid to anybody in Brown's position, is to understand your personal limitations and then find people who genuinely fill the intellectual gaps. They might frighten you, they might even say no when you least want to hear it. But they might also stop you making a fool of yourself. Instead what do we get in Downing Street, more PR people and news managers and photo sytlists. How on earth can Harman be considered as DPM. or Darling as Chancellor.

Cameron may well now be electable and he may in the intervening two years have the courage to divest himself of the mediocrity that surrounds him, but I don't expect to hold my breath. Labour have been caught with their trousers down. In fact I am not sure they they can remember whose bedroom they have left them in.'

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And the loyal and ever hopeful Steve Richards says -"There is still room for Brown to save the day - if he can learn to trust his instincts"

'The causes of Labour's crisis are a combination of the immediate and more distant. Yet I do not accept it is doomed to lose the next election. That is partly because politics is not a science where, on the basis of the past, predictions can be made about the future. This is not 1995. Mr Cameron is not Mr Blair. Labour's crisis is not the same as the one that nearly destroyed the Conservatives then.

So what, if anything, can Brown do to avoid a 1997 landslide in reverse? Currently, a fatal narrative is in place. It can be summarised in three words: "Brown is a disaster". If he made a speech on his "vision" in this climate, he would be slaughtered even if it were a work of genius. Perhaps it will prove impossible to change the narrative, but at the very least he needs to address quickly the self-inflicted wounds, such as the ongoing concerns about the abolition of the 10p tax rate. Then if there is a period when crises are not whirling around him, he might have the chance to be heard with at least a degree of respect.

At that point, he should state more clearly what drives him as a leader. Mr Brown chooses not to speak directly because he is worried about offending parts of New Labour's big tent. At least he should realise now there is virtually no one left in the tent. There are no risks any longer of speaking his mind and dropping the deliberately oblique language.'

 

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Andrew Sparrow in "Time for some Tony Blair revisionism" is one of the present crop who makes sense, though it doesn't address where they go from here. Enough sense anyway for me to comment there. Time for me to make a new video?

'Get ready for a wave of Blair revisionism. I haven't heard anyone publicly calling for his return yet, but there are some clues in the papers today that it could be only a matter of time before someone floats the idea. 

Blair is not coming back, and I don't know anyone who would even seriously consider it as a possibility.

But when he left office he was written off as an electoral liability. When the first anniversary of his departure comes up, I suspect the verdict will be different.'

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Anatole Koletsky in the Times says - "Clinton & Brown: Dreams that died" Labeling the often successful triangulation as "hypocrisy" he says:

'But when politicians' reputations are sliding, this dynamic goes into reverse. Instead of getting credit for both the positions they espouse - for example, better public services and lower taxes - the public gives them credit for neither.

Such a loss of credibility is particularly dangerous for left-of-centre politicians because of the last, and probably the most important, common feature of the political reverses suffered by Mrs Clinton and Mr Brown.

This is the alienation of prosperous, idealistic middle-class voters and the resulting loss of support from the elite liberal media that tend to reflect their views. For right-wing parties the attitudes of the bien-pensant liberal media do not matter much, because conservative politicians who advocate low taxes and small government can generally appeal to most prosperous voters on the basis of pure economic self-interest. Left-of-centre parties, by contrast, can only achieve power by creating a coalition of economically motivated working-class voters and highly educated middle-class voters, who vote for left-wing parties because of their liberal ideals.

That, at least, seems to be the lesson of recent history, especially since the end of the Cold War. A left-wing politician who loses the support of this liberal constituency is probably doomed.'

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THE CHALLENGES TO BROWN

No, but yeah, but ...

On the Right - David Miliband says No. "Reports in the press are rubbish".

On the Left - John McDonnell says Yes. "I give him [Brown] six months”.

On The World This Weekend (last weekend) – Ronnie Campbell MP, Blyth Valley, (‘not exactly supportive of Tony’ according to David Miliband on the same programme), said:

“I didn’t always agree with Tony Blair and his policies but I was always confident with Tony, with Gordon I’m not so sure that I’m confident with him. We’re forgetting our core voters [...] If Gordon Brown can’t handle it he should get out and get somebody in that can handle it. The heartlands of the northeast are not Labour any more.”

And this from an unsuccessful Labour candidate in county Durham (Blair’s heartland.)

Vince Crosby:

“What I got as I knocked on the door was ‘bring back Tony Blair’ – there was a lot of disquiet about the leadership of the Labour party at national level … the 10p tax, pensioner rates. I don’t think he’s got the charisma that Tony Blair had [...] and he can’t communicate to the people. He can’t get his message across.”

This is not the first time a Labour MP has said this, and it won’t be the last. Even those who were part of the coup against Blair in September 2006, now realise that THAT was THEIR biggest mistake. And many punters on the doorstep last week echoed the call for a return of Blair.

Well, I wish I could say better late than never. But even if the combined ranks of Labour got down on their bended knees and grovelled to The Previous and begged him to return as an MP (and God knows HOW – he’s no longer an MP) to grasp back the premier’s reins, the wooden legs are waving.

And Miliband. Well, who KNOWS? But Tony Blair he ain’t.

He of the “people will be saying, wouldn’t it be great to have that Blair back because we can’t stand that Gordon Brown” described rumours of meetings to discuss his standing against Brown for the leadership as “absolute rubbish”.

“I’ve always believed Brown was the right man to take over from Tony Blair [...] Brown has shown [sic] both vision and drive and determination when times are tough. Thursday was a referendum and a general election is a choice.”

I guess the chalice does not contain his kind of ‘poison’.

There’s always these two:

Left-wing MP John Cruddas wrote in an article in the Sunday Mirror that the party was “sinking fast” and working-class voters felt “let down” as Labour sought the middle-class vote.

And another Left-wing Labour MP John McDonnell denied he was considering a possible “stalking horse” leadership challenge but told the BBC the whole cabinet should consider their positions if they could not turn the party around within six months. He also said he would be launching policies (?!) over the next six weeks! So, it sounds like a campaign is undeway with or without Mr Miliband.

And to stop that lady waving her leg again, John Hutton, the Blairite Business Minister, has added his thoughts to the melee saying that Labour must not lose Blair’s appeal to the south (that elusive aspiring Middle England).

Ri-i-i-ight!

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BLAIR’S TOO GOOD FOR THE ROOM

As one of the world’s foremost statesmen, Tony, despite the knives in his back, is still helping Brown to “win the next election”, according to Cherie. And I recall Brown himself saying he spoke to Tony often. PMs have few to turn to in such moments as this.

And Blair is still considering if he should abandon any remaining EU presidency ambitions. He is still busy with his Middle East peace peace envoy responsibilities. And he is lecturing in Yale from the autumn. Not to mention his other advisory roles.

Wonder how many such posts will await Brown post premiership?

Blair? Sorry to be on an endless loop here, but he’s “too good for the room”.

Sunday Herald Scotland:

“If we have a new leader now, some believe it could mean we will lose the next election by a smaller amount than will happen under Gordon. Others predict a change of leader would fracture the party and we’d lose by more. And there are others still who believe that if get rid of Gordon now we could win the next election. Which is the correct option? Nobody knows.”

For another MP, who accepts the leadership debate, however silent, has arrived and won’t go away, there will be “no point in changing leaders if our policies remain the same.” This advice, however, came with a political caveat and a warning to those on the left of the Parliamentary Labour Party who believe the pressure on Brown can bring about a return of old Labour values and old Labour solutions: “The type of social democracy that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown brought in with new Labour is with us to stay. A change of leader will not bring about a new political philosophy inside the Labour Party.”

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JAW DROPPING! THE ON-OFF SMILING BROWN’S ‘YOUNGSTERS & PYGMIES’

Adam Boulton of Sky got into the interviewing Brown act too after Labour’s poll pounding, and had some fun pointing to the ‘youngsters and pygmies’ in the Brown cabinet. Mr Brown was at his jaw-dropping worst here and in the Andrew Marr Show. His default “time to think mode”. He seemed to have lost the habit in recent times but now it’s back with a vengeance. He has this strange habit of smiling at exactly the wrong moment – and the smile disappears as quickly as it appears and with as little reason. I am sure that he didn’t used to do this. And I can hardly imagine that he is doing it to order. No PR person would suggest THIS, surely?

We should watch the jaw-drops. Perhaps William Hill will use it as a “watch Brown losing it” measure: The more jawdrops per interview, the longer the odds.

MAY DAY, MAY DAY

It’s only about their own necks, anyway, it seems. Much as half the Labout party are still Blairites/some Brownites whatever that is/some Unreconstructed Old Lefties, and some trying to decide – they’d sacrifice the leader tomorrow if it meant they could have a better chance to stay in their seats and jobs post the next general election.

That sounds a very critical and harsh judgement on our MPs. But it’s only human nature. The alternative would be people who have worked hard in politics but don’t really care enough to wish to remain doing the jobs they love.

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BORIS OUSTS KEN

And as for Boris Jonstone, well, what can I say? Tripping up the “booby-trap” steps in the building where Blair’s new Mayoralty for London first saw the light of day, he was near to the very spot where Tony Blair stood 11 years ago to the day May 2nd 2007, and said, “A new dawn has broken, has it not?” I half-expected Boris to say, “a new dusk has broken, has it not?”.

• Times Online video on the night of the local elections – they did MUCH worse than this projection of losing “up to 200 seats. He lost – 300+ AND the Mayoralty of London. And they DID get Bury.
• BBC coverage and video THE START OF THE FALL OF BROWN?
• The sun sets on New Labour
• John Rentoul: The day Boris became mayor was the beginning of the end for Dave.

Andrew Marr interview with Gordon Brown on 6th October, 2007, when he confirmed he would not be having a general election.

Other commenters and bloggers’ thoughts

• A good blog article – “Why Has It All Gone Wrong For Gordon?”
• The American Thinker – on the decline of Leftism in Europe – and what it might mean for the USA.
• All Hail Macbeth – for the time being.
• David Jones, MP – analysis of Brown interview
• Brown’s fightback options on Sky
• And if that’s not bad enough, read Cranmer here on How Gordon Brown really went down in the USA (“down” being the operative word).
• Watch part of Brown’s interview with Adam Boulton
• Watch Brown’s interview with Andrew Marr following election hammering, May 2008
• And what did Blair say to Adam Boulton on the local elections? Watch video here

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Tags: 1. Tony Blair, 2009-2010, bring back tony blair, Future of Labour party, Gordon Brown Election that wasn't & date due, local elections may 2008