“Czar” Putin declaring war in … on Europe?

• Home
• “Bad American” supports Russia – and decries USA ‘winning’ nuclear shield strategy
• Read Business Week’s Steve LeVine on this conflict, with some interesting comments
• Christian Science Monitor says – “not all Russia’s fault”
• See background to violence, and map
• South Ossetia War, August 2008 – Wikipedia

BREAKING NEWS – BUSH SENDS TROOPS TO GEORGIA

RUSSIAN VIDEO ON GEORGIA’S ATTACK ON SOUTH OSSETIA

Comment at end

11th August, 2008

SOUTH OSSETIA/GEORGIA/EU/USA – WHAT IS THE REAL PROBLEM FOR RUSSIA?

What is Vladimir Putin up to? It is clearly the former president, present prime minister, the political oligarch of Russia moving the force right now on Russia’s borders.

Tony Blair keeping a wary eye on Putin, G8, 2007

Or is that just a knee-jerk reaction based on little more than latent prejudice against Putin? Putin – the man who threatened to bomb Europe over America’s decision to build a nuclear shield in the Czech Republic. He has form on this kind of bully tactics – having threatened in February of this year to aim nuclear weapons  at Ukraine if it joined NATO. Kiev’s tensions with Russia run to this day, reference blocking ports over Georgia situation.

Putin – who refused to co-operate with British police over the murder of Litvinenko in a London Street. Putin – who has now protected the main suspect constitutionally. Putin  – who many believe personally ordered the murders of dissident Russian journalists.

OK - perhaps we should expect Mr Putin to look askance when his wife is kissing another man!

I’m not quite sure why, but I am ever so slightly suspicious of Mr Vladimir Putin, the man who found himself nominated by his successor as Russian prime minister, after leaving the presidency when his eight years limit was up. There’s something else about Mr Putin that I have often found disconcerting. He seems loathe to make eye contact. In many of the pictures we see of him he is seen looking away from others. He eschews direct eye contact in a way never seen in Blair or Bush.

Regardless of the arguments – and there ARE some on Russia’s side – the recent onslaught certainly seems overkill. With NATO’S delayed intentions of admitting Georgia into its midst, Putin might well have decided that now was the opportune moment to take advantage of the fact that parts of Georgia were continuing to call for independence and were being denied by Georgia. Russia could then attack in order to “defend”.

The American presidency is in a change-over mode right now, so the USA is susceptible to the pull of varying political interests. And there are many differences in the EU as to how to cope with worldwide zones of conflict, as well as how to deal with Russia itself.  The world’s attention is largely fixated on the Middle East.

Putin is nothing if not politically sharp. The Russian Czar might be yet another title he wishes to add to his collection. Or then again, perhaps not. Perhaps this whole business signifies nothing but a minor borders dispute, easily put right. Perhaps.

BBC report, excerpt:

As fighting over the disputed region of South Ossetia threatens to spread more widely, Mr Brown warned there was “an immediate and pressing need to end the fighting and disengage all military forces”.

He said the Georgian government had offered a ceasefire and he urged “the Russians to reciprocate without delay”.

“Continued aggression against Georgia – and especially an escalation of the conflict beyond South Ossetia – will only serve to damage Russia’s international reputation and its relations with countries across the globe,” he said.

Mr Brown has held discussions with France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy and UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon in recent days.

Foreign Secretary David Miliband has also held talks with G7 and EU foreign ministers.

“No-one can check hostile bear” – The Australian, Greg Sheridan says:

‘SO what does the grizzly, hostile Russian bear do now?

No one can be indifferent to the appalling loss of life in Georgia.

But the key, long-term question is what this means for the future orientation of Russia, and, similarly, what it means for Western, and specifically US, prestige in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus.

This bitter little conflict has been a very bad episode for the West and will reinforce every militant and destructive tendency within Russia today.

In Russia, the prestige of democracy is at an all-time low, while the prestige of authoritarian ultra-nationalism is at an all-time high.’

The American Daily Intel, commenting on the presidential candidates’ response, looks at the analyses of the words and thoughts of Obama & McCain.

‘For Barack Obama and John McCain, however, the war was a chance to demonstrate how they would respond to an unexpected international crisis as president. Obama initially called for both nations “to show restraint” and “avoid an escalation to full-scale war,” before later blaming Russia for escalating the crisis and violating “Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” McCain, who has repeatedly expressed his disdain for Putin (“I looked into Mr. Putin’s eyes and I saw three things — a K and a G and a B”), was taking a hard line against Russia from the start, calling for them to “unconditionally cease its military operations and withdraw all forces.”’

NATO Should press on and give Georgia membership

The Times’ Bronwen Maddox argues that NATO should permit Georgia to join now. Germany’s Angela Merkel won the debate earlier this year to delay Georgia’s inclusion, for fear of provoking Russia. It seems that Russia has acted regardless, whether or not it was provoked.

‘But Russia, in the drama of its move inside internationally recognised Georgian sovereign borders, has escalated the dispute to a level that demands a formal response. At the very least it has sacrificed prospects for the defence pact with Europe that it has mooted.

The Nato summit was a clash of philosophies about Europe’s future. On one side was President Bush, making one of his best speeches, about the value of bringing Georgia and Ukraine into Nato as an assertion of common principles. On the other was Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, laying out why this should be postponed, perhaps for ever, even at the cost of undermining the pro-Western camp in Georgia. (British officials let it be known that they were on the American side in sympathy, but as the US would not win, they were “on the side of compromise”.)

Merkel won. But one important concession was made: the promise of membership at some point. Of course, the clash makes it important that the South Ossetia question begins to be resolved, by exploring the offers of autonomy made by Saakashvili and whether a force with an international mandate might replace the Russian force that has lost any claim to be neutral. But there are precedents (Turkey and Greece) for including members within Nato who have unresolved territorial questions.’

BACKGROUND TO VIOLENCE IN SOUTH OSSETIA

Excerpt:

Russian and Georgian troops have been fighting over the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia.

The separatist administration in South Ossetia has been trying to gain formal independence since breaking away in a civil war in the 1990s.

Russia already had troops in the region, on a peacekeeping mandate, before the outbreak of fighting. But Moscow also supports the separatists.

What is the status of South Ossetia?

South Ossetia has run its own affairs since fighting for independence from Georgia in 1991-92, in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

It has declared independence, though this has not been recognised by any other country.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has vowed to bring South Ossetia and another breakaway region, Abkhazia, back under full Georgian control.

Why do Ossetians want to break away?

The Ossetians are a distinct ethnic group originally from the Russian plains just south of the Don river. In the 13th Century, they were pushed southwards by Mongol invasions into the Caucasus mountains, settling along the border with Georgia.

South Ossetians want to join up with their ethnic brethren in North Ossetia, which is an autonomous republic within the Russian Federation.

Ethnic Georgians are a minority in South Ossetia, accounting for less than one-third of the population.

But Georgia rejects even the name South Ossetia, preferring to call it by the ancient name of Samachablo, or Tskhinvali, after its main city.

What triggered the latest crisis?

Tension has risen since the election of President Saakashvili in 2004. He offered South Ossetia dialogue and autonomy within a single Georgian state – but in 2006 South Ossetians voted in an unofficial referendum to press their demands for complete independence.

In April 2008 Nato said Georgia would be allowed to join the alliance at some point – angering Russia, which opposes the eastward expansion of Nato. Weeks later, Russia stepped up ties with the separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

In July Russia admitted its fighter jets entered Georgian airspace over South Ossetia to “cool hot heads in Tbilisi”. Occasional clashes escalated, until six people were reportedly killed by Georgian shelling. Attempts to reach a ceasefire stuttered.

How did it escalate?

After further exchanges of fire, Georgia launched an aerial bombardment and ground attack on South Ossetia on Thursday 7 August, only hours after the sides agreed a ceasefire. By Friday, Georgian forces were reportedly in control of Tskhinvali.

Russia responded by pouring thousands of troops into South Ossetia, and launching bombing raids both over the province and on targets in the rest of Georgia. Within days, Russia had seized control of Tskhinvali.

Why is Russia involved?

Russia insists it was acting as a peacekeeper in South Ossetia, rejecting Georgian accusations that it has been supplying arms to the separatists.

But it has vowed to defend its citizens in South Ossetia – of which there are many. More than half of South Ossetia’s 70,000 citizens are said to have taken up Moscow’s offer of a Russian passport.

Until recently Russia said it respected Georgia’s territorial integrity, and only wanted to look out for Russian citizens. But, following Georgia’s military action, Russian PM Vladimir Putin said it was now unlikely that South Ossetia would reintegrate with the rest of Georgia.

Could the conflict spread?

Tensions have risen in Georgia’s other breakaway region, Abkhazia to the west. Breakaway leader Sergei Bagapsh has vowed to expel all remaining Georgian forces; Russia has sent thousands of reinforcements, saying it will not allow Georgia to carry out a similar operation on a second front.

What about Georgia’s links to Nato?

President Saakashvili has made membership of Nato one of his main goals. Georgia has had a close relationship with the United States – sending troops to join the US-led coalition in Iraq – and has been cultivating ties with Western Europe.

There are those who believe that Mr Saakashvili may have been hoping to draw Nato into a conflict with Moscow, making their alliance a formal one.

But analysts say it is difficult to imagine Nato allowing itself to be drawn into a direct conflict with its Cold War rival after managing to avoid that for so long.

In fact, some say Nato will now be wary about getting closer to Georgia when it has so many outstanding territorial issues.

A Georgian man cries over the body of his relative after a bombardment in Gori

Read Time report – ‘Moscow’s dangerous game in Georgia’ here

Georgian soldiers run near a blazing building after a Russian bombardment in Gori.

‘Has Georgia overreached in Ossetia?‘

The victims, of course, are the civilians of Georgia and its breakaway South Ossetia region, caught in the escalating battle between the Georgian military and South Ossetian separatists and their more powerful Russian backer. Hundreds are alleged to have been killed in two days of heavy fighting that has shown no sign of abating by late Saturday, and thousands more are confronting the resulting humanitarian crisis. But the battle that began to rage in Georgia as world leaders were treated to the pyrotechnics of the Beijing Olympics’ opening ceremony may be the most serious challenge to the post-Cold War balance of power since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Georgia and South Ossetia have been squared off in an uneasy peace for more than a decade, now, since the region broke away from Georgia in the early ’90s, following its independence from the Soviet Union. After a protracted war that killed around 1,000 people and displaced thousands more ethnic Georgians from the territory, Georgia was compelled to sign a cease-fire agreement that left South Ossetia — a tiny mountainous territory a few football fields smaller than Rhode Island — effectively autonomous, but unable to secure recognition by the international community. Still, Russia has protected the region, providing finance, military protection and even passports, and has used South Ossetia’s secession, together with that of Abkhazia, another breakaway region of Georgia, as leverage against Tblisi’s desire to join NATO. Moscow sees Georgia’s move towards NATO as part of a strategy of hostile encirclement of Russia by Western powers, and when the Western alliance enabled Kosovo’s secession from Serbia earlier this year despite the fact that its independence is not recognized by the United Nations, many analysts expected Russia to retaliate by further stoking the fires of secession in Georgia.

Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili has a different agenda — he won election in 2004 on promise to recover the breakaway territories, and to join NATO. So closely has he courted the U.S. that Georgia today has 2,000 troops in Iraq, the third-largest contingent after the U.S. and Britain, although Tbilisi has now indicated it will have to bring at least half of them home to deal with the security crisis in South Ossetia. But the Georgian leader’s latest actions will be read by some as designed to force the hand of NATO members reluctant to press the issue of handing membership to Georgia for fear of provoking a Russian backlash. So, after a couple of days of skirmishing along the unofficial border between his forces and those of the separatists, the Georgian leader launched a full-blown invasion whose aim, his government said, was to “restore constitutional order,” that is, control by the central government, in South Ossetia. Plainly, the offensive was a gamble, because Saakashvili should have had little doubt about Moscow’s readiness to defend the separatists. Moreover, NATO officials had repeatedly warned the Georgian government against launching any attempt to resolve the dispute through military means. Still, he pressed forward.

On Friday, Georgian forces shelled South Ossetian population centers and launched a ground invasion deep into the territory. By noon, news reports announced that they had immobilized much of the opposition and had taken control of South Ossetia’s capital, Tskhinvali. The city came under attack by aircraft, artillery and armor, and South Ossetia officials claimed that more than 1,000 people had been killed. Still, the lightning offensive appeared to have put Georgia back in charge of the breakaway region, and made good on Saakashvili’s campaign promise. The offensive touched off wild celebrations in the Georgian capital, Tbilisi. “Georgians are by nature extremely patriotic and this event has galvanized them together,” David Womble, National director of WorldVision, a Christian humanitarian NGO with operations in the country, told TIME. At one point, he said, thousands and thousands of cars filled the streets of the capital, honking their horns and with their passengers waving Georgian flags. Says Womble, “It was as if Georgia had won the World Cup and was celebrating.”

Russia’s initial response was to convene an emergency session of the U.N. Security Council, hoping to pass a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire between Georgia and South Ossetia. But the Russian draft resolution was contentious. The United State and others objected to language that appeared to exempt Russia from condemnation over the use of force. Russia is frequently blamed for destabilizing the region to its own benefit and using its peacekeeping force as a cover for maintaining a military presence in the region. The Security Council failed to agree on a resolution, and the following day, as Russian media began to report casualties among Russian troops and citizens in South Ossetia, a stern-faced President Dmitri Medvedev appeared on prime-time television to make a chilling call to arms: “I am obligated to defend the life and honor of Russian citizens, wherever they may be,” he said. “We will not let those responsible for the death of our people go unpunished.” And with that, Russian armor and artillery began pouring in to South Ossetia, and its aircraft began bombing Georgian positions. By Saturday, there were conflicting reports over which side controlled South Ossetia, but Russian planes had pounded the nearby Georgian town of Gori, in raids that Georgian officials said had killed 60 people.

Whether or not the effect was intended, Moscow now appears to be using Saakashvili’s strategic overreach to teach a brutal lesson not only to the Georgians, but also to other neighbors seeking to align themselves with the West against Russia. Saakashvili is appealing for Western support, based on international recognition of South Ossetia as sovereign Georgian territory. “A full-scale aggression has been launched against Georgia,” he said, calling for Western intervention. But given NATO’s previous warnings, its commitments elsewhere and the reluctance of many of its member states to antagonize Russia, it remains unlikely that Georgia will get more than verbal support from its desired Western protectors. Saakashvili appears to have both underestimated the scale of the Russian backlash, and overestimated the extent of support he could count on from the U.S. and its allies. The Georgian leader may have expected Washington to step up to his defense, particularly given his country’s centrality to the geopolitics of energy — Georgia is the only alternative to Russia as the route for a pipeline carrying oil westward from Azerbaijan. But Russia is not threatening to overrun Georgia. Moscow claims to be simply using its military to restore the secessionist boundary, which in the process would deal Saakashvili a humiliating defeat.

Although its outcome is yet to be decided, there’s no win-win outcome to the offensive launched by Georgia with the goal of recovering South Ossetia. Either Saakashvili wins, or Moscow does. Unless the U.S. and its allies demonstrate an unlikely appetite for confrontation with an angry and resurgent Russia in its own backyard, the smart money would be on Moscow.

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Other thoughts & Opinions on Russia/Georgia conflict

WHERE IS THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT? – by Iain Dale, Tuesday 12th August

At Iain Dale’s site where he was bemoaning the silence of Brown and Miliband over the Caucasus conflict, I spotted a comment and link from someone calling himself “The Orange Party” (I thought that was the Right of the Lib Dems!)

The Orange man suggests that the reason Brown had not then been all over the airwaves on this, is due to a chat he and Blair had last April with the Georgian President. Mr Blair had said that London wanted Georgia as part of NATO. Er .. ye .. e .. e .. es? And …?

So, what else is worth telling us?  Not a lot really. Seems even if you’ve been tango’d you can’t tell your conspiracy from your politics. (’You know when you’ve been tango’d’ was a British TV ad about an orange drink.)

You Know When You’ve..
Watch the ad…

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The Stop The American Civil Liberties Union – pro Georgia

Hot Air – pro Russia

The Guardian says plucky little Georgia? No, the cold war reading won’t wash

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VIDEO FROM RUSSIA TODAY

This video from Russia Today says it shows the casualties following the Georgian attack on South Ossetia

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Tags: Brown (Gordon Brown & his Labour Government, from June 2007), bush, ceasefire, czar, David Cameron, opposition Conservative Party Leader, disproportionate and unnaceptable, EU, Europe/EU/Lisbon Treaty/Full-time President, georgia, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, kremlin, L, nato, oligarch, Russia, south ossetia, Tskhinvali, usa, vladimir putin