Is ‘The Invisible PM’ Having a Breakdown?

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UPDATE, 28th August – Kevin Maguire asks “Is Gordon Going Crackers” (- I think!)

And prior to that Guido Fawkes asks “Is Brown Bonkers” on 25th August, after which he intimates that Maguire is following HIS lead!

Come on boys! Catch up! If you’re serious and not just headline grabbing, you have to provide some balance – like say – ‘madness & the reasons for madness’. Not THAT difficult.

• Latest YouGov Poll – Brown hits rock bottom. Maybe. See analysis here
• ‘The American Thinker’ – The Perfect Wrong War – Interesting, with some useful commentary
• ‘The Australian’ asks: “Is The USA’s commitment to new NATO members as strong as it should be?”
• ‘The Moscow Times’ on the way forward
  

Comment at end

17th August, 2008

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Preface: I am not yet convinced about the rights and wrongs of the Georgia/Russia conflict. How COULD I be?  I am a semi-ignorant political watcher like most of the other internet ‘experts’. But I am willing to learn, willing to trust our western leaders and willing to admit I retain a slight suspicion regarding the Russian government. Some sleight of hand, given its behaviour in recent years, wouldn’t surprise me. Particularly since it has already threatened to nuke Europe wherever an American nuclear shield is positioned. (Putin … June 2007 – at least once before this recent threat over Poland.)  However, why so little questioning of the original Georgian invasion by western powers?

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BUT FIRST – IS GORDON HAVING MORE THAN A POLITICAL BREAKDOWN?

The Invisible PPM (Present Prime Minister)

OR IS THIS BIG BOY REALLY UNSURE AS TO WHICH WAY TO TURN?

If so … do you want to know what I think?  He MAY be right. This Georgia/Russia/South Ossetia business really is a little complex. Admit it – had YOU heard of South Ossetia a fortnight ago? Suddenly it is the centre of talk of nuclear war. 2008’s Cuba Crisis. And this crisis raises more questions than it answers, we should have no doubt.

MACAVITY’S NOT THERE

Not long ago Gordon Brown was known as Macavity or The Invisible Chancellor. Never around when Tony Blair needed support, the refrain was heard repeatedly – “Gordon Brown’s not there”.

Blair says: "Over to you, Gordon." But AGAIN, Macavity - er - Brown's not there!

But most people didn’t worry too much as they understood the subterfuge that had been circling around these two giants – well, one giant – of British politics for many years. And a lot of us didn’t care much about Mr Blair’s likely shaky equilibrium at that time anyway. He was a big boy and could look after himself and the country until the other big boy came out of his hideyhole to take over.

How things have changed.

I’m becoming rather concerned that Mr Brown is nowhere near as big a boy as was his predecessor. In fact I’m tempted to ask with all the provisos and cadences required of the question – is Gordon cracking up under the strain?

Or, might it be that he really IS confused as to the rights and wrongs of the situation and is experiencing inner turmoil over how to handle things, given that it is clear that other western leaders have already taken such a firm stand against Russia?

Of course he could just be dithering out of habit and preference, as he has done once or twice before. It is after all surely a steep learning curve – all this international relations – for a man who previously held only ONE position in government.

Still it’s good to see that some of Tony Blair’s (former) political opponents miss him, including one Tory MP who was famously and mercilessly trounced out of parliament by the first Blair landslide of 1997 (Read Michael Portillo).

Excerpt:

‘David Miliband, the foreign secretary, once remarked, when Tony Blair was still prime minister, that we would miss him once he had been replaced by Gordon Brown. Well, I certainly do. If Blair were still in office the United Kingdom would have been more evident and effective during this crisis. Somehow he would have ignored the fact that France holds the presidency of the European Union and would have discovered a role for himself and his country.’

Too right, Mr Portillo, too right.

THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING – UKRAINE UPS THE ANTI

As the Russians agreed on a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal, they are nonetheless still moving troops deeper into Georgia, now only 25 miles from its capital Tbilisi. The Russians are coming, it seems, even as they say they are going. The argument that it takes some time to get the message through to troops seems a little disingenuous, given that one or two of them might be expected to have a mobile phone!

And now UKRAINE says that it wishes to strengthen its western ties, adding to Poland’s offer of missile defence for the USA. Excerpt:

‘UKRAINE yesterday offered to create a joint missile defence network with the West amid fears that its port city of Sebastopol, home of the Russian Black Sea fleet, could become the next flashpoint between Russia and its former satellites.

The Ukrainian offer, which means its early warning radar stations could become part of the West’s civil defence system, will further damage poor relations between Kiev and Moscow.’

WHY SO LONG FOR BROWN TO TALK ABOUT THE CRISIS IN THE CAUCASUS?

Numbed into virtual silence for four days after the Georgia/Russia conflict broke Mr Brown only seems to respond to Tory responses to the dire situation, and seldom to the situation itself. This Bloomberg report does not include reference to Mr Brown, though Sarkozy, Merkel and even Cameron are all mentioned. Can you imagine that happening had Tony Blair still been prime minister? NOT A CHANCE! He’d have been up there with Sarkozy & Merkel, and of course Bush.

This Telegraph leader lays much of this at the foot of an ongoing power struggle between Mr Brown & Mr Miliband.

‘Perhaps, as their aides claim, the Prime Minister and the Foreign Secretary are active behind the scenes, having suddenly discovered the virtues of “quiet diplomacy”. But that is not the most plausible explanation of the lamentable failure by any leading figure of the British Government to make a visible stand against Russia’s invasion of Georgia.

Too much is known about the strained relations between Gordon Brown and David Miliband for anyone to believe that those strains and stresses have not played a significant part in the fact that no British minister has been sent to Tblisi, the Georgian capital.’

Is this ‘leadership’ by any measure of one of the top EU countries, still one of the world’s great nations?

The complaint is NOT that Brown is saying NOTHING, but that he has been painfully slow to say anything, as though waiting for others to commit. Also, that he has focussed on the humanitarian issues of those dispossessed and injured by the Georgians’ attack on South Ossetia without sufficient recognition of the bigger geo-political threat from Russia’s actions. But perhaps he knows something the rest of us don’t. Then again …

WHAT ARE THE MAIN WESTERN PLAYERS SAYING ON THE CAUCASUS CRISIS?

Mikhael Saakashvili, Georgian President. Tensions have soared since April, after Georgia accused the Kremlin of plotting to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia

What did Bush say?

‘CRAWFORD, Texas – President Bush sent a stern warning to Russia on Saturday that it cannot lay claim to two regions in U.S.-backed Georgia even though their sympathies lie with Moscow. “There is no room for debate on this matter,” the president said.’

What did Sarkozy say on behalf of the EU? – excerpts:

‘”Russia must withdraw”.

Mr. Sarkozy’s dynamism when it comes to the current Russia-Georgia crisis may score him some points back home — even though, as analyst Steven Ekovich points out, unlike Mr. Sarkozy, very few French are working in August.’ Read more on Sarkozy here.

What did Merkel say? – excerpt:

‘”I have to say that I found some of Russia’s actions disproportionate,” Merkel said at the joint news conference at the Black Sea resort of Sochi, close to the Georgian border and the Moscow-backed rebel region of Abkhazia,

The chancellor said Russian troops should withdraw from Georgia proper and reiterated her position that Georgia’s sovereignty could not be called into question.

“The point of departure must be the territorial integrity of Georgia,” Merkel said.’

Gordon Brown, (yesterday) – excerpts:

‘Prime Minister Gordon Brown has joined the US in calling for Russia to immediately withdraw from Georgia.

And on Tuesday, Mr Brown said he had told Russian President Dmitry Medvedev “very directly” that “Russian aggression” had been condemned around the world and said the UK would provide humanitarian aid to the region.

Mr Brown spoke in a phone call to Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili, after his meeting in Tbilisi with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

Russia’s incursion was a “completely unjustified violation of Georgia’s territorial integrity”, the prime minister’s spokesman said.’

David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary has condemned the aggression of Russia and demanded its complete withdrawal. He seems to be saying (a little) more than the present PM. Not that it means a lot.

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SHOULD BROWN BE SHOT AT DAWN – OR PRAISED FOR HIS THOUGHTFULNESS?

Going absent without leave at THIS time of international crisis might once have been considered a shooting at dawn offence. Good gracious, people – we’re British, don’t you know! Always have to say the right thing in important matters. But if Mr Brown is ill and thus incapable – well, that would be an extenuating circumstance, I’m sure. Mercy would be granted. If he’s still battling it out with Miliband or A.N.Other colleague, well that’s a different can of worms entirely.

David Cameron, the Tory leader, always aware of the shoes he needs to fill (Blair’s, not Brown’s) is as ever on his toes taking advantage of every opportunity. Today was just such a day.

Reminiscent of Mr Blair as ‘voice of the people’ in the dying days of Major’s premiership, Mr Cameron flew off for a day trip to Georgia. There he made all the right noises, or most of them. Not that anyone there was listening – I expect some of them asked – “is that Tony Blair?”

And it isn’t only the Tory Right  noticing that Brown doesn’t seem to be noticing anything. His own Labour MPs are wondering why he hasn’t taken some time off his fortnight’s break. Yes, Blair was famously able to switch off and enjoy his breaks without politics. But if you think he’d have ignored THIS one, Mr Brown … you really DO need to see someone.

The Telegraph reports:

‘Labour MPs questioned why the Prime Minister had left it to the Conservative Leader to visit the beleaguered nation and had not sent a government minister or even convened a formal press conference on the issue himself.

Eyebrows have been raised at the low key approach taken by Mr Brown and Foreign Secretary David Miliband who have said they are working behind the scenes with other nations to resolve the crisis.

President Bush, President Nicolas Sarkozy of France and the German Chancellor Angela Merkel have taken the lead with only brief statements from Mr Brown and Mr Miliband.

Mr Cameron flew to Tblisi and stood side by side with Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze to call on Russia to immediately end its “illegal” invasion.

“I think it’s important that the world’s oldest democracy must stand with one of the newest when it’s been illegally invaded by another country,” the Tory leader said.

“We wanted to come to express the strongest possible support of the British people, British government and British opposition for Georgia, its independence and integrity.”

The Conservative leader said that Russia must be made to choose between its expansionist regional ambitions and worldwide respect and should not be allowed to block Georgian membership of Nato.’

And …

One former foreign minister said: “Gordon made a huge error initially by going for the humanitarian angle. This is a stratightforward act of aggression by Russia not an international development issue. Cameron sussed that and saw that John McCain was right about where the story was going. This trip by Cameron just makes us look wet and dithering.”

‘Mr Brown, who is on holiday in Scotland, spoke to President Mikhail Saakashvili but risked looking as if he had lost political control of the issue and had allowed Mr Cameron to paint himself as a future Prime Minister.

Mr Brown did not make a statement on the crisis until after Mr Cameron had issued a robust response condemning Russia on Monday, and then only briefly.

Mr Miliband was on holiday in Menorca during the outbreak of hostilities. This contrasted with President Bush ordering humanitarian aid into Georgia and giving daily statements from the White House Rose Garden.

A Tory spokesman said Mr Cameron held meetings in Tiblisi with President Saakashvili, Prime Minister Gurgenidze, Foreign Minister Tkeshelashvili and Chairman Bakradze of the Georgian Parliament.’

I wonder which former minister said the above? Surely wouldn’t have been either of the two surviving Foreign Secretaries from the Blair years, Margaret Beckett or Jack Straw?  Either of those would be too, TOO worrisome. Perhaps it was a minister in the Foreign & Commonwealth Department.

Yes, of course.

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OTHERS’ THOUGHTS ON THE ONGOING CRISIS

The Independent says:

‘One thing is clear in the New Cold War that has sent shivers down spines all over the world. It is that the United States, Britain and the rest of the West will not go to war with Russia to defend Georgia. The question asked by Geoffrey Wheatcroft today, is a pertinent one, therefore. What was the point of inviting the Georgians to join Nato? Nato is, after all, explicitly an alliance of mutual self-defence that commits each member to respond to an armed attack on any other member as if it were an attack on itself.’

And …

‘Although Gordon Brown has been conspicuous by his low profile, at least he has avoided making a dash to Tblisi, as David Cameron has done, to show disingenuous solidarity with the Georgian people and to repeat – apparently on behalf of the British Government – the promise of Nato membership. Instead of looking statesmanlike, which may have been the intention, he looks concerned but unworldly and immature.’

This from The Moderate Voice site is interesting, particularly, if you are a little iffy on all of this. The comment of someone called “spikester”, (11 down) has some useful background though I’d have preferred it if he had added links to aid the authority of his information.  Get past his facile statement that ‘the US blundered into Iraq’. A lot of the rest is quite lucid if some of the “facts” are arguable. If he is a conspiracy theorist, he’s better at arguing his case than many.

It’s easy to dismiss those with anti-Iraq/anti-Bush views as loony lefties, but in order to clarify our thinking we need to read all strains of thought, if well written. This, on Russia, Georgia, Bush,  is well-written, in my humble opinion.

I do not discount well-argued opinions of those whose initial reaction I may not share. This article – “What I Am” explains why, (although I am British, I hasten to add.)   (What I Am – background, Snopes)

AMERICA & BRITAIN TO BLAME!

Russian military

21st Century Socialism (so you may be able to work out where it’s coming from) says:

‘Even by daybreak on 8th August, with Tskhinvali already partially destroyed by Georgian bombardment, it would not have been too late to avert the further escalation of the conflict. Russia’s initial response to the Georgian attack was to convene an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council, where it sought support for a resolution calling for an end to the fighting and a commitment that the dispute would be resolved only by peaceful means. The Independent reported:

At the request of Russia, the U.N. Security Council held an emergency session in New York but failed to reach consensus early Friday on a Russian-drafted statement.

The council concluded it was at a stalemate after the US, Britain and some other members backed the Georgians in rejecting a phrase in the three-sentence draft statement that would have required both sides [the Georgians and the South Ossetians] “to renounce the use of force,” council diplomats said.

By rejecting the Russian motion, the USA and Britain sent a clear message to Saakashvili that he had permission to continue the military operation. It is as yet unclear how many people died in this war; but however many they are, the US government, and to an extent also the UK government, bears the main responsibility for their deaths.’

Tony Blair attended the Yalta European Strategy summit in Ukraine in July:

‘Britain’s former Prime Minister Tony Blair told a conference of the Yalta European Strategy (YES) at the Levadia Palace that tensions with Russia over Ukraine’s Nato membership had to be resolved. “Russia sees Ukraine’s membership as threatening Russian interests. It is very important that we continue over time to explain that this is not so,” he said.

YES, founded by the billionaire Viktor Pinchuk, lobbies for Ukraine’s entry into the EU by 2020.’

OLYMPICS GOOD NEWS FOR BRITAIN – 11 GOLDS AND 3RD IN THE MEDAL LIST (for now, anyway.)

Rebecca Adlington - photo opportunity for the wise and ambitious

I am sure the young Blairs wanted to meet Rebecca Adlington, our new Olympics swimming heroine at the Olympics. But I am also sure that Mr Blair, or someone very close to him, saw the benefit of having such a picture associated with Tony Blair’s new Sports Foundation.

Go here to visit the official Tony Blair Sports Foundation website.

And why not? This sort of thinking ahead is exactly what anyone with any sense of perspective should be doing. Mr Blair is, presumably, hoping that his Sports Foundation will help inspire youngsters to great things over the next four years prior to the London Olympics, for which it is known he worked EXTREMELY hard. Rebecca Adlington might just help in that.

Oh, and ANOTHER thing …

MESSAGE TO MR BLAIR – ARE YOU DEAD?

Mr Blair, you really need to publish your family photo with Rebecca at your Sports Foundation website. The reason? The stats on my blog have suddenly been inundated with this search term or similar – “Tony Blair dead” – some of the time with a question mark. You see what’s happened? You haven’t been seen in pictures for ages and now there’s a rumour you’ve been bumped off.

We need an up-to-date picture, please. You can always hold a recent newspaper, so we know it’s real. A nice picture of Gordon on the front would be useful. But mind the headline!

UPDATE: Very much alive. Proof here at the Olympics

Tony & Cherie Blair at the Watercube in Beijing

See “Crowd goes wild for Blair  – Beijing Olympics”

Rebecca Addlington takes a GOLD at Beijing

I wonder why it always seems that the present PM is a reactive politician only, and then only eventually, when what is needed in leadership is proactivity?

THE STUFF OF NIGHTMARES

The Telegraph has an ‘Epitaph for Brown’ poll here. I have voted, but I don’t agree with the winner so far! Perhaps it tells you something about the British people that they vote for a poem which doesn’t quite scan!

Your greatest failing Mr Blair- education, education, education!

Daniel Finkelstein in defence of Blairism – ‘would you pass the Kinnock test?’

‘The Kinnock Test is this – do you, on reflection, think it would have been a good idea for the country if Neil Kinnock had been elected Prime Minister in 1992?

The Kinnock Test is thus an important way of classifying Blairites. A Blairite who thinks Kinnock would have been a good prime minister must believe that Blair’s changes were mainly necessary in order to get elected. A Blairite who passes the Kinnock Test accepts that Blair’s changes were required in order for Labour to be fit to govern. There is quite a big difference between those two positions.’‘

Nightmare on Downing Street

And if poor Mr Brown is having nightmares right now, he is not alone. It seems we are also having them – About HIM.

Excerpt:

Mr Brown joins spiders, falling from a great height and Heather Mills in a list of things which have Britons waking in a cold sweat.

He was named the third most nightmarish celebrity, behind singer Amy Winehouse and shock rocker Marilyn Manson. Simon Cowell, Cherie Blair and Chancellor Alistair Darling also figured highly.

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Tags: 1. Tony Blair, brown, bush, cameron, caucasus, darling nightmares, EU, Europe/EU/Lisbon Treaty/Full-time President, georgia, gordon brown breakdown, invisible pm, Macavity, merkel, miliband, Nicolas Sarkozy, French President, nuclear threats, nuke, olympics, poland, Putin, Russia, russians are coming, south ossetia, tbilisi, ukraine, United States of America, usa