Comment at end
19th August, 2008
YouGov: BLAIR 49% / BROWN 13% (38% neither)
[YouGov questioned 2,031 adults between August 6 and 8.]
ICM: CAMERON 42% / BROWN 21% (23% neither)
[Guardian ICM: Questions comparing Gordon Brown, David Miliband and David Cameron were asked online among a sample of 1,054 adults aged 18+]
These polls have one thing in common – disastrously low scores for Gordon Brown. The “neithers” are important. The first Blair/Brown “neithers” are mainly committed Tories or Lib Dems and Others. The second set of neithers are mainly Lib Dems and Others.
In case you missed this, and I had until I found this site, it seems the British public would prefer Tony Blair to Gordon Brown by a HUGE majority.
49% of those questioned in a recent YouGov opinion poll prefer Blair, to 13% who’d rather have Brown, and 38% who don’t know.
Well, bring back Blair and he’ll set to work on that 38%. And as for the Tory lead in the ICM poll, there is only 23% for Blair to work on! Easy peasy. He’ll have Cameron for breakfast.
The News of the World
LABOUR must DITCH Gordon Brown to stand any hope of winning the next election, a News of the World poll has revealed.
The exclusive survey carried out this week shows voters would be more likely to back Labour with someone else at the helm.
But even if the party dumped Brown any new PM would still face a titanic battle to stop the Tories—who are shown 20 POINTS ahead—from winning by a landslide.
HAVE YOUR SAY: IS GORDON A GONNER?
Nearly half of all voters—a massive 46 PER CENT—say Brown should quit as PM.
And 49 PER CENT say they would prefer Tony Blair as PM.
Ben Glanville, of pollsters YouGov, said: “These results are bad news for Gordon Brown.
“If Labour are to have any hope of wooing the electorate then a change at the top may restore their fortunes, but it is no magic bullet.
“And if Labour chose a new leader he or she would have to work very hard to gain the public’s confidence. It would not come automatically.”
Over one in five readers say they would be MORE likely to vote Labour if Brown was not the leader, while just seven per cent say it would make them LESS likely to back Labour at the election.
Dump
News of the World readers in particular think Labour should dump Brown, with 32 PER CENT more likely to vote for the party without him.
Crucially a QUARTER of Lib Dem voters and a FIFTH of Tories say they could switch to Labour if they had another leader.
But huge numbers of voters say Brown is not a good leader and lacks charisma.
They also say he is out of touch with the country and lacks authority because he was handed the Premiership without an election.
And fewer than one in five trust him to manage the economy. Even Labour supporters don’t want Brown, who looked grim-faced at the opening of the Edinburgh International Book Festival yesterday.
Under a THIRD of them think he makes the best PM. Although that puts him in front of his Cabinet rivals, just as many think someone else would do a better job. That is a massive vote of NO CONFIDENCE and shows Brown is nowhere near as popular among the voters as Tony Blair was.
Our survey found just 13 per cent preferred Brown as PM to Blair who was backed by 49 per cent. But Labour face a massive dilemma over who should be in charge if Brown is persuaded to walk the plank. Even under another leader—such as Foreign Secretary David Miliband—they would face a huge battle to win power for a fourth term.
Although Miliband is marginally more popular than Brown, the poll is hardly a ringing endorsement of him.
Labour MP Graham Stringer—who has called for Brown to go—said: “I don’t think all is lost. But this shows there needs to be a leadership challenge.” The ex-minister added: “We have got to do whatever it takes to win the next election— whether that means changing policy or changing leadership.
“We’ve got two years to go and we have the opportunity to focus on what we need to do to get the trust of the British public.”
YouGov questioned 2,031 adults between August 6 and 8.
MILBURN THREAT TO GORD
ALAN Milburn has signalled his support for David Miliband’s bid to oust the PM—saying Labour needs a new agenda.
The Health Secretary has set out an ultra-Blairite programme of reforms in a direct challenge to Gordon Brown.
And In a hugely provocative statement hinting Brown’s time is up he said: “A new agenda beckons.”
The move comes just days after reports that Miliband is lining up Milburn for to be his Chancellor if he takes over from Brown.
Milburn angrily denied the those claim but his latest move will infuriate the PM.
And his words are strikingly similar to Miliband’s call for a “radical new phase” for the Labour Party.
Brown’s enemies this week warned they were preparing a campaign to force him out.
Enemies
Ex-ministers including Charles Clarke and Stephen Byers are planning a series of policy ideas to keep up the pressure on the PM. And Milburn has done just that with his health and education plans.
He wants to make it easier for private firms to take over schools and doctors’ surgeries.
Under his plans colleges, schools, job centres and GP surgeries would be given 10-year franchises.
And private firms would compete to run them.
It is a clear warning that Labour must embrace Blair’s public service reform plans – opposed by Brown supporters.
Milburn said: “The transition from public sector to public service should be completed.”
Our poll today shows the pressure Brown is under. The weakened PM could now anoint Miliband as his successor in exchange for a promise not to force him out.
He is considering promising Miliband he can take over after the next election – just as he himself demanded from Blair.
However, such a strategy would infuriate Brown’s right-hand man Ed Balls, who himself wants the top job.
And Miliband is unlikely to accept the idea. He wants the premiership now and thinks he can lead Labour to victory in the next election.
He would not want to be leader of the opposition after Labour has been annihilated at the polls.
Brown is also facing grassroots calls for a leadership election this summer.
Labour members have written to party chiefs demanding an election.
In one letter to the party’s general secretary the Save the Labour Party group said ballot papers should be sent out before the annual conference in September.
Group chairman Peter Kenyon wrote: “Nomination papers for leader and deputy leader (should be) issued to MPs, MEPs, constituency Labour Parties and affiliated organisations.”
In case I am accused of getting carried away, I should add that in a new ICM poll, David Cameron rates 21% higher than either Brown or David Miliband!
Brown, Miliband, Cameron
Excerpt:
‘Voters would overwhelmingly prefer David Cameron as prime minister, even if Labour replaced Gordon Brown with David Miliband, a new Guardian/ICM poll shows.
The prime minister returns to No 10 tomorrow after his summer break to find Labour stuck a long way behind the Tories. The only silver lining for Brown is that Miliband, his foreign secretary and possible leadership rival, would not do any better as a credible challenger to the Conservatives.
When people were asked to choose the best prime minister between Cameron and Brown, or Cameron and Miliband, the Tory leader beat both men by the same 21% margin.
I wonder if and when any of the pollsters are going to put the REAL CHOICE in an upcoming poll. The real choice between two politicians who can articulate a vision and a direction and a sense of purpose and leadership … to mention but a few of the necessaries.
I wonder.
The question:
If Tony Blair were to stand against David Cameron in the next general election, which would you prefer?
It may be too early, and disillusion with Labour may yet favour the Tories. BUT I would be willing to lay a bet that the difference wouldn’t be anywhere near 21%.
Nah!
Mr Cameron would definitely do better than that!
Tags: 1. Tony Blair, 49% blair, alan milburn, Brown (Gordon Brown & his Labour Government, from June 2007), Charles Clarke, David Cameron, opposition Conservative Party Leader, David Miliband, Foreign Secretary in Gordon Brown's government, from June 2007, guardian icm poll, icm, icn, opinion, polls, stephen byers, yougov
August 19, 2008 at 11:18 am |
Oh, I dunno. I think Labour still has hope of picking a winner for the top job. (Or not.)
August 19, 2008 at 11:55 am |
Yes, David. Very good.
I think.
;0)
August 19, 2008 at 1:21 pm |
yes we want blair but after the way blair was treated by the press and others would he want to come back. he might feel better where he is. what we need is the power of persuasion to persuade him that this time we really want him whatever the press say and i don’t know who could do that
August 19, 2008 at 1:35 pm |
Yes, Margaret, agreed. But like many of us I’ve been watching the Oympics this morning. So was he – at the velodrome, looking delighted at our success. We shouldn’t forget the great support he gave to Britain getting the 2012 Games, and his Sports Foundation plans might well bring in even more winners by 2012. And he has a habit of being in the right place at the right time.
He has learned SO much since he left office. Now it might be clear to the Brits that he is even more of an internationally focussed politician than he was before.
I think THAT is important in a leader in this contracting world where we are beginning to understand that we NEED each other so much – climate change, terrorism, energy supply, trade, religious differences etc.
As for persuading Blair himself – well, once his poll numbers rise to 60+% – and once they lay to rest forever this wmd/war criminal nonsense – things could be different. Especially if Labour continued to drag itself down under Brown. Having said that, it may NOT be until AFTER the next general election!
Perhaps Cherie could persuade him. She managed to persuade him to hang on in his confidence “wobble” of 2004.
That’s it! Write to Cherie!
August 19, 2008 at 9:56 pm |
some of anti blair are disgusting. one comment in the mail today claims blair is having his holiday by taking money out of his sport foundation as if he would lower himself to do these things. blair has more morality in his little finger than these have in the universe.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1046294/Pictured-Tony-Blair-reveals-slimline-new-look-visit-Olympics.html#
August 19, 2008 at 10:24 pm |
I couldn’t be bothered to read all the repetitive junk in the Mail’s comments, margaret.
But these idiots should watch it. That kind of statement on his Sports Foundation is libellous.
I sent in a comment. Of course they never use my comments, because of my alias. Anything that seems to identify with Blair is a no-no for that stupid paper.
Here is my comment, anyway. I saved it:
………………..
………………..
August 21, 2008 at 3:56 am |
Dear KTB,
The poll is telling. It’s that old adage: You don’t know what you got ’til it’s gone. We here in the states have known about Tony Blair’s dedication to Great Britain and to the world for a long time. The way we see it, the naysayers on our dear friend Tony, have been wearing blinders. Eyes wide open now, I hope! Nah, not a chance! Or….maybe there’s hope yet!
Great Britain, IMHO, would be profoundly lucky to have Tony Blair back at the helm, BUT, the service he is in now is extremely important to the rest of the world. The world may ask you to make the “ultimate sacrifice” and let Tony go. As time goes on and new polls are taken, we may see the numbers increase. In that case, we shall see who ends up with this good man, Tony Blair.
That’s the take from California, USA
August 22, 2008 at 12:31 am |
I think we’ve made the ultimate sacrifice, Arlene. In fact a double whammy! Lost Blair and found Brown.
Looks like the country’s on the way to Toryism – whatever THAT is these days.
How depressing. They were not exactly inspiring last time. Some of us have long memories.
;0(
September 6, 2008 at 9:36 pm |
[...] 19th August YouGov poll – 49% for Blair c/w 13% for Brown [...]
September 26, 2008 at 12:44 pm |
[...] lifestyle. But mainly the fact that she and the little one miss him on his worldwide travels. (So do a lot of us, Cherie!) It seems she couldn’t bear to spend her birthday without him and travelled out to the USA for [...]
May 1, 2009 at 7:28 pm |
[...] August 18th, 2008 -YouGov poll – 49% prefer Blair c/w 13% for Brown - original source here [...]