Comment at end
19th August, 2008
YouGov: BLAIR 49% / BROWN 13% (38% neither)
[YouGov questioned 2,031 adults between August 6 and 8.]
ICM: CAMERON 42% / BROWN 21% (23% neither)
[Guardian ICM: Questions comparing Gordon Brown, David Miliband and David Cameron were asked online among a sample of 1,054 adults aged 18+]
These polls have one thing in common – disastrously low scores for Gordon Brown. The “neithers” are important. The first Blair/Brown “neithers” are mainly committed Tories or Lib Dems and Others. The second set of neithers are mainly Lib Dems and Others.
In case you missed this, and I had until I found this site, it seems the British public would prefer Tony Blair to Gordon Brown by a HUGE majority.
49% of those questioned in a recent YouGov opinion poll prefer Blair, to 13% who’d rather have Brown, and 38% who don’t know.
Well, bring back Blair and he’ll set to work on that 38%. And as for the Tory lead in the ICM poll, there is only 23% for Blair to work on! Easy peasy. He’ll have Cameron for breakfast.
The News of the World
LABOUR must DITCH Gordon Brown to stand any hope of winning the next election, a News of the World poll has revealed.
The exclusive survey carried out this week shows voters would be more likely to back Labour with someone else at the helm.
But even if the party dumped Brown any new PM would still face a titanic battle to stop the Tories—who are shown 20 POINTS ahead—from winning by a landslide.
HAVE YOUR SAY: IS GORDON A GONNER?
Nearly half of all voters—a massive 46 PER CENT—say Brown should quit as PM.
And 49 PER CENT say they would prefer Tony Blair as PM.
Ben Glanville, of pollsters YouGov, said: “These results are bad news for Gordon Brown.
“If Labour are to have any hope of wooing the electorate then a change at the top may restore their fortunes, but it is no magic bullet.
“And if Labour chose a new leader he or she would have to work very hard to gain the public’s confidence. It would not come automatically.”
Over one in five readers say they would be MORE likely to vote Labour if Brown was not the leader, while just seven per cent say it would make them LESS likely to back Labour at the election.
Dump
News of the World readers in particular think Labour should dump Brown, with 32 PER CENT more likely to vote for the party without him.
Crucially a QUARTER of Lib Dem voters and a FIFTH of Tories say they could switch to Labour if they had another leader.
But huge numbers of voters say Brown is not a good leader and lacks charisma.
They also say he is out of touch with the country and lacks authority because he was handed the Premiership without an election.
And fewer than one in five trust him to manage the economy. Even Labour supporters don’t want Brown, who looked grim-faced at the opening of the Edinburgh International Book Festival yesterday.
Under a THIRD of them think he makes the best PM. Although that puts him in front of his Cabinet rivals, just as many think someone else would do a better job. That is a massive vote of NO CONFIDENCE and shows Brown is nowhere near as popular among the voters as Tony Blair was.
Our survey found just 13 per cent preferred Brown as PM to Blair who was backed by 49 per cent. But Labour face a massive dilemma over who should be in charge if Brown is persuaded to walk the plank. Even under another leader—such as Foreign Secretary David Miliband—they would face a huge battle to win power for a fourth term.
Although Miliband is marginally more popular than Brown, the poll is hardly a ringing endorsement of him.
Labour MP Graham Stringer—who has called for Brown to go—said: “I don’t think all is lost. But this shows there needs to be a leadership challenge.” The ex-minister added: “We have got to do whatever it takes to win the next election— whether that means changing policy or changing leadership.
“We’ve got two years to go and we have the opportunity to focus on what we need to do to get the trust of the British public.”
YouGov questioned 2,031 adults between August 6 and 8.
MILBURN THREAT TO GORD
ALAN Milburn has signalled his support for David Miliband’s bid to oust the PM—saying Labour needs a new agenda.
The Health Secretary has set out an ultra-Blairite programme of reforms in a direct challenge to Gordon Brown.
And In a hugely provocative statement hinting Brown’s time is up he said: “A new agenda beckons.”
The move comes just days after reports that Miliband is lining up Milburn for to be his Chancellor if he takes over from Brown.
Milburn angrily denied the those claim but his latest move will infuriate the PM.
And his words are strikingly similar to Miliband’s call for a “radical new phase” for the Labour Party.
Brown’s enemies this week warned they were preparing a campaign to force him out.
Enemies
Ex-ministers including Charles Clarke and Stephen Byers are planning a series of policy ideas to keep up the pressure on the PM. And Milburn has done just that with his health and education plans.
He wants to make it easier for private firms to take over schools and doctors’ surgeries.
Under his plans colleges, schools, job centres and GP surgeries would be given 10-year franchises.
And private firms would compete to run them.
It is a clear warning that Labour must embrace Blair’s public service reform plans – opposed by Brown supporters.
Milburn said: “The transition from public sector to public service should be completed.”
Our poll today shows the pressure Brown is under. The weakened PM could now anoint Miliband as his successor in exchange for a promise not to force him out.
He is considering promising Miliband he can take over after the next election – just as he himself demanded from Blair.
However, such a strategy would infuriate Brown’s right-hand man Ed Balls, who himself wants the top job.
And Miliband is unlikely to accept the idea. He wants the premiership now and thinks he can lead Labour to victory in the next election.
He would not want to be leader of the opposition after Labour has been annihilated at the polls.
Brown is also facing grassroots calls for a leadership election this summer.
Labour members have written to party chiefs demanding an election.
In one letter to the party’s general secretary the Save the Labour Party group said ballot papers should be sent out before the annual conference in September.
Group chairman Peter Kenyon wrote: “Nomination papers for leader and deputy leader (should be) issued to MPs, MEPs, constituency Labour Parties and affiliated organisations.”
In case I am accused of getting carried away, I should add that in a new ICM poll, David Cameron rates 21% higher than either Brown or David Miliband!
Brown, Miliband, Cameron
Excerpt:
‘Voters would overwhelmingly prefer David Cameron as prime minister, even if Labour replaced Gordon Brown with David Miliband, a new Guardian/ICM poll shows.
The prime minister returns to No 10 tomorrow after his summer break to find Labour stuck a long way behind the Tories. The only silver lining for Brown is that Miliband, his foreign secretary and possible leadership rival, would not do any better as a credible challenger to the Conservatives.
When people were asked to choose the best prime minister between Cameron and Brown, or Cameron and Miliband, the Tory leader beat both men by the same 21% margin.
I wonder if and when any of the pollsters are going to put the REAL CHOICE in an upcoming poll. The real choice between two politicians who can articulate a vision and a direction and a sense of purpose and leadership … to mention but a few of the necessaries.
I wonder.
The question:
If Tony Blair were to stand against David Cameron in the next general election, which would you prefer?
It may be too early, and disillusion with Labour may yet favour the Tories. BUT I would be willing to lay a bet that the difference wouldn’t be anywhere near 21%.
Nah!
Mr Cameron would definitely do better than that!
Tags: 1. Tony Blair, 49% blair, alan milburn, Brown (Gordon Brown & his Labour Government, from June 2007), Charles Clarke, David Cameron, opposition Conservative Party Leader, David Miliband, Foreign Secretary in Gordon Brown's government, from June 2007, guardian icm poll, icm, icn, opinion, polls, stephen byers, yougov
May 1, 2009 at 7:28 pm |
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