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- 6th September 2008 – ComRes opinion poll website / Poll on Blair’s popularity
- 22nd June 2008 – poll – 53% want Blair back A total of 53 per cent say that, in hindsight, they wish Mr Brown had not ousted Mr Blair.
- 27th July 2008 – Brownites call for return of Blair
- 19th August 2008 YouGov poll – 49% for Blair c/w 13% for Brown Blair 49% to Brown 3% YouGov poll of less than one month ago: “49% of those questioned in a recent poll prefer Blair, to 13% who’d rather have Brown, and 38% don’t know.”
How much proof do we need that Labour got it all wrong in removing their previous PM?
Comment at end
6th September, 2008
“ONLY BLAIR COULD SAVE LABOUR NOW”
(The Independent, 6th September 2008)
The Independent says, as if to remind us: "Tony Blair, who is more popular now than when he left Downing Street last summer, cannot return as leader because he is no longer an MP". Really? I recall Mr Blair saying, "there ARE no rules".
For weeks, months even, Labour has struggled at anything from 19% – 24% behind the Conservatives in opinion polls. A new poll has thrown a spanner into the works.
The Independent has the results of the poll it commissioned this week from ComRes (view full results here – pdf format). Pasted article here from ‘The Independent’
THE MAIN FINDING
ONLY TONY BLAIR has a chance of beating the Tories at the next general election.
Well, well … so perhaps I haven’t been as out of touch with public opinion as some have mocked!
He is 6 percentage points ahead of any other leading Labour politician, including Brown, with 31% of voters saying they’d vote Labour were Blair leading the party, compared to 25% at most for all others! This proviso reduces the Tories’ lead to 41% – a reachable margin of 10%. In fact, since people almost invariably vote AGAINST a party rather than FOR a party, this ten percentage point difference is eminently reachable.
But ONLY under Blair.
The closest possible contenders do not improve Labour’s present chances under Gordon Brown. Both David Miliband and Jack Straw are on 25% each, the same as Brown. But with them in charge they lose 3% to the Tories.
The Question: If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for if each of the following were leader of the Labour Party?
[Note: The base result: Labour - 25% / Conservative - 44% / Lib Dems - 17%]
For Tony Blair: Labour-31% /Conservative-41% /Lib Dems-18%
For David Miliband: Lab-25% / Con-44% / Lib Dems-18%
For Jack Straw: 25% / 44% / 19%
For Alan Johnson: 23% / 44% / 19%
For Harriet Harman: 23% /45% / 18%
For Ed Balls: 22% / 44%/ 19%
A QUICK ANALYSIS BASED ON THE ‘BASE POLL’ RESULT OF LABOUR 25%, CONSERVATIVE 44%, LIB DEMS 17%. [The other parties -SNP, Plaid Cymru, BNP, Greens, UKIP and Others account for numbers under 5% throughout all choices.]
- With David Miliband leading Labour, intending Labour voters and Conservative voters remain the same as at present under Brown – 25% / 44%, though 1% more will go for the Liberal Democrats (18%, up from the base of 17%).
- With Jack Straw leading, intending Labour and Tory voters remain the same, with 2% more going for the Lib Dems (up to 19% from 17%).
- With Alan Johnson, intending Labour voters drop 2%, Conservative voters would remain the same – 44%, and Lib Dems gain 2% up from 17% to 29%.
- With Harriet Harman, intending Labour voters drop 2%, while Conservatives gain 1% and the Lib Dems remain on 18%.
- With Ed Balls, intending Labour voters drop 3%, the Conservatives stay on 44% and the Lib Dems gain 2% – up to 19%.
BLAIR 6% AHEAD OF ALL OTHERS
Only with Blair in charge are inroads made into any of these poll results. He is 6% ahead of ANY of the other alternatives as far as garnering those willing to vote Labour is concerned. And most importantly he pulls back 3% from the Conservatives. All this without even trying and without having faced them down or spoken of their policies (or lack of) within the last year since he left office. This seems to indicate a lack of confidence in David Cameron’s Tories, and perhaps a feeling that with Blair in charge he would soon mess up their non-committal tendencies and their lack of any vision other than that already put in place by Blair himself-adopted wholesale and unashamedly by ‘Blair Mark II’ – David Cameron.
It also displays a lack of regard for Brown and the other would-be leaders and perhaps a re-appraisal of Mr Blair now that he is no longer around. A kind of sentimental vote of empathy. In other words, perhaps he wasn’t so bad after all; and perhaps he was right about Iraq and worldwide fundamentalist terrorism. At least with HIM we knew where he stood. With the Tories – we still have NO real idea on the big issues. And Brown seems singularly incapable of wheedling any information out of them.
And of course, compared to Brown, Blair’s leadership abilities come into a far clearer focus.
But whatever the reasons, and there may be many, this poll result will not have escaped the attention of Blairites, the possible candidates named above, Gordon Brown or the Labour party itself. As well, of course as David Cameron’s Tories, who cheered to the rafters on Blair’s departure.
It would seem that Labour can either work out a way – ANY WAY – of persuading Mr Blair to return OR they can wait until defeated at the next election and then beg him to return.
As for Mr Blair himself – what would he do if asked to re-consider his position?
Let’s imagine phone calls from all the above:
MILIBAND: Blair: ‘Oh hello, David. Well, no, of course not. Anyway, I’m kind of busy right now. You should have stood against Gordon when you had the chance.’
STRAW: Blair: ‘Hi there, Jack. Too many knives – not enough backs?’
HARMAN: Blair: ‘Oh hello there, Harriet. I don’t think so. You let me down before … more than once. Why should I help to save your job now?’
JOHNSON: Blair: ‘Hi Alan. Look, I know you’re a friend, perhaps my only one, but the party made me an offer I couldn’t refuse. THEY knew better! And if we’re going down why should I lead the troops now? I haven’t lost an election before, remember.’
BALLS: Blair: ‘Ed? Ed Who?’
BROWN: Blair: ‘Hi Gordon. Well, what can I say?’
THE INDEPENDENT’S ARTICLE
Only Blair could save Labour now
By Andrew Grice, Political Editor, ‘The Independent‘
Saturday, 6 September 2008
Tony Blair is the only senior Labour figure who would transform Labour’s prospects at the next general election, according to a ComRes poll for The Independent.
The former prime minister would cut the Conservative Party’s projected majority of 182 to just 20 seats – enough to raise Labour’s hopes it could prevent David Cameron becoming Prime Minister. The Tories’ current poll lead would be almost halved from 19 to 10 points.
The good news for Gordon Brown is that none of the alternative leaders being touted as his possible successor would secure Labour more public support than he is winning.
Under David Miliband or Jack Straw, Labour’s ratings would be exactly the same as under Mr Brown, while the party would perform worse if Alan Johnson, Harriet Harman or Ed Balls took over.
Although the survey shows Mr Brown is unpopular among Labour supporters, it suggests the Labour brand is now tarnished in the eyes of many voters – another sign that changing its leader might have little impact.
Some 49 per cent of the public say they do not like Mr Brown or the Labour Party. Only 16 per cent say they like him and the party. Mr Brown is slightly less popular than his party: 20 per cent of people say they like Labour but not him, while 8 per cent like him but not the party.
Remarkably, 34 per cent of people who intend to vote Labour say they like the party but not Mr Brown. Only 3 per cent of them like him and not Labour, and just 58 per cent of Labour supporters like both the party and its current leader.
Among people who are undecided or who refuse to say how they will vote, 44 per cent say they do not like Mr Brown or Labour. Only 12 per cent like the party but not the Prime Minister, suggesting Labour’s problems go much deeper than its leader.
The survey puts the Tories on 44 per cent (down two points on the last monthly ComRes poll), Labour on 25 per cent (up one point), the Liberal Democrats on 17 per (down one point) and other parties on 14 per cent (up two points). Those figures would give Mr Cameron an overall majority of 182 if repeated at a general election.
Labour’s rating would remain at 25 per cent if Mr Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, or Mr Straw, the Justice Secretary, were leader, the poll finds. Under Mr Johnson, the Health Secretary, and Ms Harman, Labour’s deputy leader, the party’s rating would slip to 23 per cent, while under Mr Balls, the Schools Secretary, it would fall to 22 per cent.
Under Mr Blair, Labour would win 31 per cent, reducing the projected Tory majority to just 20 seats. Mr Blair, who is more popular now than when he left Downing Street last summer, cannot return as leader because he is no longer an MP, but according to ComRes, he would enjoy much more support among both men and women than any other Labour figure including Ms Harman. Mr Blair would win the backing of 31 per cent of women and Ms Harman 23 per cent.
Labour MPs who want the Cabinet to oust Mr Brown had been hoping that polls would show that a change of leader would close the gap with the Tories – in the hope of creating a bandwagon effect for Mr Miliband, the front-runner to succeed him.
While Mr Brown’s allies will be relieved by the findings, his critics will argue that they reflect the fact that politicians such as Mr Miliband and Mr Johnson are not as well known by the public as Mr Brown or Mr Blair—and that a new leader would soon enjoy a much higher profile.
The finding that Mr Blair would close the gap will give Labour a ray of hope that the Tories’ lead is “soft”, showing hostility to the Government during the economic downturn rather than positive support for Mr Cameron’s party. Privately, some Tory strategists believe their party’s “real” lead is more like 10 than 20 points.
Labour critics of Mr Brown still insist that a change of leader could spark a revival for the party. They point out Mr Brown received a bounce in the polls after succeeding an unpopular Mr Blair 16 months ago, only to squander it by calling off plans for an autumn election.
For the poll, ComRes interviewed 1,013 British adults on 3-4 September. Data was weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables can be viewed at www.comres.co.uk
UK Polling Report: Recent Opinion Polls show the Tories averaging around 44%, from 43%-48%, and Labour from 24%-29%. Only this recent finding by ComRes (with Blair leading) brings the Tories down to 41% and Labour up to over 30%.
‘The New Progressive’ says that Charles Clarke has declared Blairism “dead”. Really? You could have fooled me (and Mr Cameron?)
OTHER REPORTS ON THIS POLL
- FT says the finding that Blair could cut lead from 19% to 10%, will disappoint those who thought Blair a liability
- Yahoo News: 49% said they liked neither Mr Brown nor the Labour party
- India site for Howrah & West Bengal:
- ‘Mr Blair, who quit as Prime Minister and Labour party leader after 10 years in June 2007, could cut the Conservative Party’s projected majority of 182 to just 20 seats if he replaces Prime Minister Gordon Brown, according to a ComRes poll of 1,013 Britons for the Independent.’
- The Australian HeraldSun
- Politics.co.uk
- Belfast Telegraph
- And even those who haven’t read, or try to ignore the poll have little hope for the survival of Labour: Alistair Darling & the Implosion of the Labour Government
A couple of reasons why Blair will be hard to persuade back to lead British politics again
1. BEIT IBA, West Bank
Tony Blair toured a Palestinian aluminium factory and was told it runs at one-third capacity because of Israeli import restrictions. He promised he’ll take it up with Israeli authorities.
Blair said he remains motivated to help resolve the Mideast conflict, despite slow progress.
“I think it is … the single most fundamental issue for us to resolve, in terms of peaceful coexistence, not just between Israelis and Palestinians, but between the West and Islam, the world and Islam,” he said.
2. KEEPING THE FAITH
Mr Blair feels a calling to try to unite world faiths for good. His professorship at Yale begins soon.
3. CLIMATE, AID TO AFRICA, SPORTS FOUNDATION – isn’t he a little pre-occupied?
WHY DID THE INDEPENDENT, BLAIR-HATER AS IT IS, ASK THIS QUESTION?
By the way if you are wondering why the Indy has run this poll and asked this question when they clearly were part of the press plot to help remove him, you’re not the only one. Others have e-mailed me to ask me this.
My answer to those who have asked is this:
‘I think it is because they saw that he had done so well in last month’s poll for YouGov – 49% to Brown’s 13% and are worried, since they hate him so much. So now they are trying to make the point that he COULD NOT BECOME LEADER BECAUSE HE IS NOT AN MP!
Their hope is that people will forget about him when asked again in a future poll because “it is not possible”, so that next time people are asked they will discount him.
Of course, with Blair nothing is impossible. If he really wants it, that is. I’m not sure yet if he really does. He keeps his cards close to his chest. I’d take an educated guess that Cherie does, though!’
Tags: 1. Tony Blair, 19% to 10%, 31% would vote Labour under Blair, Blair could win 4th term for Labour, Blair reduces Tory lead, Brown (Gordon Brown & his Labour Government, from June 2007), ComRes poll, Faith Foundation, opinion poll, The Independent - Daily Mail - Guardian - British "feral" Press, Tony Blair Sports Foundation, YouGov poll
September 8, 2008 at 5:12 pm |
the anti blair indy and rest of the pack want cameron to win the next election not because it is good for britain or not because cameron wouldn’t do an iraq but they expect cameron to hold a public inquiry into iraq with the result of which they could use to prosecute blair. they don’t care what is best for the country [that is why they got rid of blair and don't want him back because he's the only one who could beat cameron]. they’re only after one thing – BLAIR. nothing else matters. they are just selfish and uncaring. only after their own ends