EU President Blair? Or Daily Mail pot-stirring?

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8th February, 2009

ALL EU TO YOU, TONEE

'M*rde', dit Monsieur LeBrun. (Mumbles: 'Why didn't I elevate that bas***d to The Lords, to keep the pi** ... rain inside the tent?')

A leeetle note to Gordon on the Five Economic Tests – Convergence Criteria (see below here)

Before we get over-excited about this, and before the little Blair Haters get out there adding a dozen or two to the campaign to try to prevent it ever happening, let me warn you:

This is the Daily Mail and it’s Sunday papers time. They’ve got to come up with something while the banks and stock-markets are closed.

The other day they had fun knocking the dullish half-shine off Mr Brown, the world’s banks’ “saviour”, by rubbing in the hero-worship that Mr Blair had raised so effortlessly in the eyes of Mr Obama.  And it clearly was hero worship.

So this may be little more than stirring the pot. Mischief-making is the Mail’s raison d’etre.

According to the Daily Mail another important friend across the water, French President, M Sarkozy has been busy doing a little behind-the-scenes canvassing for the next er… first permanent EU Presidency. This all emanates, I believe, from last month’s financial get-together in Paris, with Blair, Sarkozy and Merkel.  NOTHING is a “fait accompli”.

President Blair: Former PM set to become EU chief as Sarkozy battles to win him the post

By Simon Walters and Peter Allen
Last updated at 10:16 PM on 07th February 2009

Tony Blair is poised to become the first President of Europe after it was confirmed that French leader Nicolas Sarkozy is determined to help him win the post.

A senior aide to President Sarkozy told a private gathering of senior British and French politicians that he is to tell fellow EU leaders that Mr Blair is the only man who can help Europe stand up to the rest of the world.

The remark by Alain Minc, a key member of Mr Sarkozy’s inner circle, is the second French blow to Gordon Brown’s standing in two days, coming after Mr Sarkozy said Mr Brown’s decision to combat the recession by cutting VAT was a ‘mistake’.

Helpful friend: Nicolas Sarkozy wants Tony Blair to become the first EU President

Mr Minc, a political wheeler-dealer, entrepreneur and TV show host, was attending a meeting last month of the Franco British Colloque, a high-powered discussion group of British and French politicians, civil servants and opinion-formers.

Members are under orders not to reveal the confidential discussions, but The Mail on Sunday has established that Mr Minc used the meeting to win support for Mr Sarkozy’s campaign to ensure Mr Blair becomes the President of Europe.

The role is due to be created next year – but only if the EU’s controversial Lisbon Treaty is ratified in the autumn by Ireland and the Czech Republic, the two EU countries which have so far refused to do so.

More…

• Now Tony Blair finally has the private jet he’s always wanted (even if it is rented)

Mr Minc told the gathering, which was also attended by French Prime Minister Francois Fillon: ‘When the Lisbon Treaty is ratified, Europe will move into a new phase. Europe will need a strong leader and Nicolas Sarkozy will nominate Tony Blair for the position.’

Mr Minc explained why Mr Sarkozy was determined to overcome opposition to Mr Blair from a handful of EU leaders, notably German chancellor Angela Merkel.

He said: ‘We have to unite and say to Mrs Merkel that we cannot afford not to have Tony Blair, who will be a strong figurehead, is entirely respected around the world and will be a commanding leader at the helm of Europe.’

Mr Minc has been described by one commentator as ‘France’s Peter Mandelson’. Indeed, his AM Conseil consultancy has employed Lord Mandelson as an ‘adviser’ in the past and the two are members of the Policy Network think-tank.

Respected: Barack Obama watches Mr Blair speak in Washington last week

The conference took place in Versailles, days after Mr Blair visited Paris to chair a conference for Mr Sarkozy on the economic crisis, in what was seen as the latest part of a charm offensive to boost his chances of winning the EU presidency.

Mr Blair paid glowing tribute to Mr Sarkozy’s recent performance in the rotating EU presidency, saying: ‘Under his leadership, Europe looked as if it were acting in concert.’

Mr Blair was referred to as Prime Minister Blair throughout – Mr Brown was not even invited.

The post of President of the EU’s Council of Ministers will replace the current system under which the EU nations on a six-monthly basis. Supporters say it is the only way to give the presidency rotates among EU a strong voice.

Critics claim it is another step on the road to a European superstate.

Publicly, Mr Blair says he is not campaigning for a job ‘which does not even exist’.

Privately, friends say he would relish it.

Likewise, in public Mr Brown’s advisers say he is ‘relaxed’ about the prospect.

Privately, they admit it is a ‘nightmare’ which would further diminish his status.

Overshadowed: Mr Brown's aides say Blair's appointment would be a ‘nightmare’

Mr Minc was not the only person at the conference to make provocative remarks about ‘President Blair’.

Work and Pensions Secretary James Purnell, tipped to succeed Mr Brown as Labour leader, is in hot water after apparently backing the idea.

Asked if Mr Blair was the right man for the job, Mr Purnell said: ‘We need someone who is a world-respected statesman, has experience of being involved in intractable international issues like the Irish peace process, and, while being on the Centre Left, understands how the markets work and sparkles with charisma…’

As Mr Purnell, a close ally of Mr Blair, paused for effect, there were gasps from some in the audience who realised they were meant to think he was referring to Mr Brown’s predecessor.

He then added: ‘…which is why I nominate Bill Clinton.’

The joke was not lost on fellow guests, who knew that, as an American, Mr Clinton is not eligible.

A spokesman for Mr Purnell said: ‘It was an after-dinner gag. He did not endorse Mr Blair.’

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Critères de convergence

Le Président Blair a envoyé une note à son vieil ami Gordon Brown sur des critères de convergence pour l’union monétaire européenne (English translation follows) :

Cher Gordon. Comme vous savez le temps glisse pour que la Grande-Bretagne joigne la devise simple d’UE et vous aider à échapper à l’économie de modèle de Mugabe le pays vacille inexorablement vers.

Comme le Président du Conseil d’UE je doivent vous informer que vous avez maintenant trois semaines pour obtenir l’économie dans la forme suffisamment bonne pour que la Grande-Bretagne puisse adhérer à l’euro. Pour faire que laissez-moi vous rappellent les cinq essais économiques:

1. Les cycles conjoncturels et les structures économiques sont-ils compatibles de sorte que nous et d’autres ayons pu de phase confortablement avec des taux d’intérêt bancaire britanniques sur une base permanente?

2. Si les problèmes émergent est là flexibilité suffisante de traiter eux?

3. Britain’  s joignant l’EMU créent de meilleures conditions pour des sociétés prenant des décisions à long terme pour investir en continent l’Europe?

4. Quel impact Britain’ l’entrée de s dans l’EMU ont sur la capacité concurrentielle du continent Europe’ ; industrie de services financiers de s, en particulier Germany’ ; & de s ; France’ ; marchés en gros des?

5. En résumé, permettant à la Grande-Bretagne de joindre l’EMU favorisent une croissance plus élevée, une stabilité et une augmentation durable des travaux pour le reste de nous dans EuroLand?

En plus de ces critères dont on a pris soi-même la responsabilité, la Grande-Bretagne a le petit problème qu’elle ne rencontre pas l’EU’ ; critères de convergence économiques de s (” Criteria” de Maastricht ). Tellement techniquement votre pays est inéligible pour être permis d’adopter l’euro. Un critère est deux years’ ; adhésion de MTC II.

Bien que la Grande-Bretagne ne soit pas encore un membre, je peux pouvoir balancer une avance dans Britain’s faveur des, sur certaines conditions. Vous recevrez cette information par la notification séparée – texte ou pigeon voyageur mobile, celui qui est encore opérationnel à cette heure la semaine prochaine.

Je joins un million de note d’euro qui devrait être échangeable à la banque restante… la vieille dans la rue de Threadneedle. À votre taux de change actuel qui devrait être assez pour t’obtenir un billet aller et retour par Eurotunnel.  Achetez-le cette semaine, juste dans le cas de la dévaluation rapide en taux de change.

Vôtre avec beaucoup d’appréciation à votre attention aimable.

L’amour le plus affectueux,

Tony

Élégant Monsieur le Président à vous.

Le Conseil de l’Europe

……….

TRANSLATED

Convergence criteria

President Blair has sent a memo to his old friend Gordon Brown on convergence criteria for  European Monetary Union:

Dear Gordon.

As you know time is slipping for Britain to join the EU single currency and help you escape the Mugabe style economy the country is lurching inexorably towards.

As EU Council President I have to inform you that you now have three weeks to get the economy in sufficiently good shape in order that Great Britain can join the euro.

To do that let me remind you of the five economic tests.

1. Are business cycles and economic structures compatible so that we and others could live comfortably with British bank interest rates on a permanent basis?
2. If problems emerge is there sufficient flexibility to deal with them?
3. Would Britain’s joining EMU create better conditions for firms making long-term decisions to invest in mainland Europe?
4. What impact would Britain’s entry into EMU have on the competitive position of mainland Europe’s financial services industry, particularly Germany’s & France’s wholesale markets?
5. In summary, will allowing Britain to join the EMU promote higher growth, stability and a lasting increase in jobs for the rest of us in EuroLand?

In addition to these self-imposed criteria, Britain has the small problem that it does not meet the EU’s economic convergence criteria (“Maastricht criteria”). So technically your country is ineligible to be allowed to adopt the euro. One criterion is two years’ membership of ERM II. Although Britain is not yet a member, I may be able to swing a little lead in Britain’s favour, on certain conditions. You will receive that information by separate notice – mobile text or carrier pigeon, whichever is still operational by this time next week.

I am enclosing a one million euro note which should be exchangeable at the remaining bank …the old one in Threadneedle Street. At your present exchange rate that should be enough to get you a return ticket by Eurotunnel. Buy it this week, just in case of rapid devaluation in exchange rates.

Yours with much appreciation for your kind attention.

Fondest love,

Tony

Mr President, to you
Council of Europe

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These are the five economic tests on UK entry to the euro as outlined by The Treasury in 1997

Has Mr Blair booked the plane for Dublin and Prague, I hear you ask?  Mais naturellement !

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Tags: 5 economic tests, convergence criteria, Daily Mail, EMU, EU President, Gordon Brown, Nicolas Sarkozy, Tony Blair