Comment at end
28th July, 2009
The end of interventionism in America AND Britain?
BUT FIRST – A NEW POLL. PRESS HEADLINES WILL SAY:
“MOST WANT BRITAIN TO WITHDRAW FROM AFGHANISTAN”
But this poll – 52% for withdrawal, 43% against – hides the true story, surprise, surprise!
WHAT THE PRESS DON’T REMIND US
In fact, since a poll in November 2008, support for remaining in Afghanistan has actually RISEN. See BBC November poll report here, saying that at that time 68% wanted Britain to withdraw WITHIN TWELVE MONTHS, compared to 24% who didn’t agree!
So, support for remaining in Afghanistan has risen by 19%!
As he mourned for his soldier son, killed in Afghanistan recently, these were the thoughts of a Welsh father:
Stuart Elson, the father of Lance Corporal Dane Elson, 22, of 1st Battalion Welsh Guards, who was buried in Bridgend on Friday, said at the funeral: “I don’t know if we should be at war in Afghanistan.
“What I do know, as a police officer in Barry, is that we need to take action to stop terror from coming our way.
“Dane was part of that action and paid the ultimate price like so many others, so we may all sleep a little safer and easier in our beds tonight.”
Whatever could he mean? As a policeman in a small Welsh seaside town this proud father of a dead soldier is aware of the threats? Was he asked to expand on these thoughts? No of course not. Why not? The press. (More on this story here.)
Dale was born in Zimbabwe, brought up in England, and was buried with a Welsh flag over his coffin.
Stuart Elson used one word as his son was buried — “HERO”.
UNWINNABLE?
It is described by armchair politicians as the ‘unwinnable’ war in Afghanistan. Who describes it as “unwinnable”? The press. Some make ‘hopeless’ references to “history’s lessons”. Who? The press. Then there is the natural revulsion over troop deaths in July in Helmand? Under whose comparative assessment? The press’s.
So back to the wider issue, and it is wide, as here and here and here, for those who haven’t noticed.
THE LEFT AND (SORT OF) RIGHT TAKE OVER IN THE WEST’S SEATS OF POWER
ISRAEL/PALESTINIAN CONFLICTS
With hands outstretched Obama continues (for public consumption anyway) with his “soft power” approach towards those who understand little but tough action.
The good and the great of Obama’s administration are presently in the Middle East talking to Syrian leaders and of course, the Israeli leader, Benyamin Netanyahu. And, in what some might describe as a sop to a rattled ally, Israel, Robert Gates has now given Iran a date – September – to come back to America with a response to Obama’s “open hand” offer, and to seriously look at their nuclear programme.
Meanwhile the British government-in-waiting, David Cameron’s ‘Conservatives’, are, as usual, silent on their policy on these issues. Equally silent is Europe as individual states, despite its rightwards swing in recent EU elections.
We know where Mr Obama stands right now, although that could all change soon when reality hits home. But Mr Cameron? What does HE say about dealing with the Taliban, Al Qaeda and international AND homegrown terrorism?
NOT A LOT.
So is this the opportune moment to ask if interventionism has had its day? I think it may be.
We can be forgiven for a new democratic President moving away from too much interventionism; that’s why they voted for him – or part of WHY. But the idea that a new Conservative party in Britain will ALSO be non-interventionist is worrying indeed.
It’s true that Britain is no longer one of the top world powers, but we are in the top handful and we should be determined to remain there.
EVEN LABOUR IS UNSURE OF ITS POSITION
David Miliband and Gordon Brown are still supportive of the struggle in Afghanistan, true. And for that they should be thanked. Whether Miliband’s suggestion of talking to ‘moderate elements’ in the Taliban will bear fruit is another question.
But many in their party see Afghanistan in the same bracket as they see Iraq – ‘Blair’s War’ (and Blair’s folly.) In fact Tony Blair was right on both of these issues, as I believe time will show. AND, if the public hold their nerve. The Vietnam war was lost (just as it was about to be won) by American public opinion, NOT by the forces or politicians. Is the same about to happen in Afghanistan?
Denis MacShane, former Europe Minister under Blair, still espouses interventionism. But if you feel that few other British politicians do since Tony Blair’s departure, sadly, you’re right.
MacShane said on the Week in Westminster on Sunday night that Americans are still asking – “Who do we talk to in Europe? “
This has been asked before.
If a touch of reality sets in we may find that Americans talk to Tony Blair, perhaps the premier interventionist of our age.
A STORY OF SUCCESSFUL INTERVENTIONS
Fond of citing what they see as the “disastrous” Iraq war, and the “impossible Afghanistan” situation, the opponents of ANY interventionist action blithely forget the inarguably successful interventions – Sierra Leone and Kosovo to name but two in Blair’s ten years.
Of all countries – I mean ALL countries in the world – we Brits should be proud of the peace and democracy we have helped bring to numerous conflict zones around the world. Instead we hand-wring and threaten to vote hand-wringers into power.
We should be particularly proud of the interventionist stance taken by Tony Blair. Instead we do something that future historians are going to look at with the same puzzlement that they presently regard the ousting from power after the second world war of the victorious war leader Winston Churchill.
We turn our backs on the moral leadership of great leaders, and even damn them as morally inferior.
How odd. How British.
And, lest we have forgotten, INTERVENTIONISM, like charity begins at home.
NORTHERN IRELAND
Olivia O’Leary reported on the BBC Radio 4′s Westminster Hour on Sunday on the position of Ireland since peace in 2007. It was well worth hearing for those who have forgotten WHY Ireland might well vote YES to The Lisbon Treaty referendum re-run. Listen here until next Sunday night.
Excerpt, O’Leary:
“It was a salutory lesson to us coming from Ireland to find how little we figured in the great British scheme of things. Tony Blair was an exception to that and his efforts are reflected in Northern Ireland today. The process of peace there has allowed Irish people and Irish journalists at Westminster to move away from the old wounds and concentrate on a more normal relationship with our nearest neighbour on ordinary things like trade, on relations within the EU, on the sporting and cultural and family links that bind all of us on these islands. We’re not such strangers any more, you see. Maybe we never really were.”
This excellent article by Shmuel Rosner at
Slate looks at America’s move away from interventionism.
The End of Interventionism?
The world has lost its appetite for confrontation, and rogue regimes have gotten smarter.
By Shmuel RosnerPosted Friday, July 24, 2009, at 9:58 AM ET
Only a fool would be surprised by the series of explosions that occurred July 14 on the outskirts of the village of Khirbet Slem in southern Lebanon. The sudden detonation of Hezbollah’s arsenal was indeed unusual—but the incident drew attention to something that had almost been forgotten: The presence of international peacekeeping troops in southern Lebanon, mandated in U.N. Resolution 1701, has not achieved its goal of “disarming and disbanding Hizbollah,” the Shiite Lebanese militia backed by Iran. It hasn’t even come close. (The resolution that ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah also declared, “There will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese State.”) When U.N. troops approached the site of the blasts, they were stoned by local villagers attempting—successfully—to prevent the force from getting anywhere nearer to the ordnance.
For the last three years, the force deployed in Lebanon has managed to avoid trouble by maintaining “largely good” relations with Hezbollah—as the Associated Press put it. Of course, Resolution 1701 only “authorizes UNIFIL to take all necessary action in areas of deployment of its forces and as it deems within its capabilities.” But that’s a tricky definition. Capabilities as assessed by whom? Capabilities limited to what price in money and blood? With what consequences? Apparently, visiting a site where explosions have occurred is not within UNIFIL’s “capabilities”—but at least it can maintain “largely good” relations with Hezbollah.
It’s easy to mock the guardsmen in southern Lebanon, but Lebanon is just one example, and UNIFIL is just one unfit force. That’s because, quietly and unceremoniously, the era of successful international intervention has passed. The achievements of Bosnia and Kosovo, the refusal to accept a coup in Haiti, the debatable achievements of Iraq and Afghanistan, even the remorseful self-flagellation over Rwanda—all marked the time of can-do interventionalism. Intervention wasn’t always clean, it wasn’t always forceful enough, but it was a goal to be aspired to. Not anymore.
Consider the failure in Darfur—which I have already written about here twice. Consider Zimbabwe, where dictator Robert Mugabe has made a mockery of international disapproval, demands, and even assistance. Consider Iran, a country where election fraud was condemned and people took to the streets, all to no avail. In these three cases—and many others—the international community has offered little more than soothing words and hollow statements. What’s more, it has not even felt the need to mourn its inability to turn words into action. President Barack Obama was hailed for being opaque in the case of Iran, and his liberal supporters, who care intensely about Darfur, stayed mum when the new president made no detectable progress on this issue.
In this new world, caution is more important than intervention. What some have described as Obama’s “cult of pragmatism” is really a nice way of saying that Americans no longer have a taste for intervention. And without American leadership, there will be none.
Intervention was always a dangerous path, and the more powerful the country involved, the less likely the world was to take a stand. (China and Tiananmen comes to mind, as does Russia’s invasion of Georgia.) What has changed is the world’s appetite for force, even against less daunting regimes. The default way to explain this growing reluctance is to blame George W. Bush. And of course, the bloodbath of Iraq has made intervention less appealing to the public. Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, writing a year ago in the New York Times, argued that “the era of intervention is over.” She continued, “The invasion of Iraq … generated a negative reaction that has weakened support for cross-border interventions even for worthy purposes.”
But blaming Bush is an excuse rather than a reason. Cases like Sudan and Zimbabwe and Lebanon all show that American fatigue is not the only explanation. Also at play is the increasing ability of rogue leaders to deter the international community. To do this, they follow two simple rules learned from past interventions:
- Be sure there’s a threat of violence should anyone attempt to intervene.
- Make the world believe that with just a little more negotiation, it might be possible to solve the problem diplomatically.
In Zimbabwe, this mix of menace and delay worked perfectly, as a recent Washington Post editorial convincingly argued:
[A]fter African nations brokered the formation of Zimbabwe’s coalition government, strongman Robert Mugabe must be pleased with the results. Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, whose victory in last year’s presidential election was nullified by violence and fraud, is now charged with managing the economy; with help from foreign donors, he has managed to bring it back from the dead. World-record hyperinflation has been stopped; shops, schools and some hospitals have reopened; and a cholera epidemic has eased. Zimbabweans are finding it easier to obtain food and medical care and to send their children to school. At the same time, Mr. Mugabe’s control over the state remains unbroken.
In Iran, Obama’s desire to “engage” has made it difficult for him to support the opposition; meanwhile, the regime’s threats are far from subtle. “The Iranian nation warns the leaders of those countries trying to take advantage of the situation, beware! The Iranian nation will react,” Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned. Of course, warnings aren’t enough—as Saddam Hussein learned—and negotiation alone, with no persuasive threat of violence, can bring down a regime or an organization. But combining the two is a formula perfectly tailored to current international sensibilities. It has worked well for Sudan and for belligerent North Korea.
Americans often search for explanations by looking inward to apportion blame—by pointing a finger at Bush or Obama, expressing an urgent need to prioritize the economy, or rehashing the vices of liberalism and the sins of conservatism. While all these factors no doubt contribute to the current mood, looking inward is not enough—indeed, it’s just another sign of Western narcissism. The end of interventionalism is not just a sign of the mellowing of the West; it is also an indication that the enemy is getting stronger—and smarter.
ENDS ARTICLE
More on Interventionism – Your/Our Responsibility to Protect Their Freedom
