BREAKING: Miliband announces officially he is OUT of the EU race. He says he is committed to British politics. Good news for Blair? Bad for Brown?
Comment at end
11th November, 2009
EMERGING PAPAL- … PUPA-LIKE FROM BEHIND THE SMOKE (& MIRRORS)
The idea seems to be that the EU president, like the Pope, will emerge by consensus. No blood on the carpet or swords at dawn. Pity, some might say.
All presently encased in their chrysalides in various states of semi-denial, one pupa will emerge within the next few days or weeks to fly like a butterfly and sting like a bee o’er its united expanse.
While we innocents await the white smoke coming out of the chimney ears of some Europeans, we are left guessing as to how the votes will in the end be divvied up.
Fredrik Reinfeldt, the Swedish Prime Minister yesterday mentioned the possibility of reverting to using QMV, with a warning that “the decision would not be made by two leaders but by 27” and that he “might have to resort to qualified-majority voting because there was such a divergence of views.”
So that’s Merkel & Sarkozy told, is it not? Who said the EU wasn’t democratic?
QMV – qualified majority voting – rules are as opaque as Germany’s real voting intentions. See here for a quick EU QMV resume.
With some wry remarks about the attractiveness or otherwise of the jobs several EU presidency candidates presently hold – y’know, president, prime minister – Simon Dyda writes on ‘Speculation gone mad’. Here he lists the VOTES and how they are spread around EU states dependent on their population size.
Germany, France, Italy, United Kingdom 29 votes each
Spain, Poland 27 votes each
Romania 14 votes
Netherlands 13 votes
Belgium, Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Portugal 12 votes each
Austria, Bulgaria, Sweden 10 votes each
Denmark, Ireland, Lithuania, Slovakia, Finland 7 votes each
Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Luxembourg, Slovenia 4 votes each
Malta 3 votes
TOTAL 345 votes
VOTES SO FAR
Tony Blair: 58 votes (UK & Italy)
Jan-Peter Balkenende: 40 votes (Netherlands & Poland)
Herman Van Rompuy: 12 votes (Belgium)
John Bruton: 7 votes (Ireland)
Jean-Claude Juncker: 4 votes (Luxembourg)
Remaining votes: 224
The new president will be chosen on the 19th of November according to the website EU Observer
Another post at this Welsh site has this on the odds:
Jan-Peter Balkenende (current Dutch premier) 4/1
Tony Blair (former British premier) 5/1
Jean-Claude Juncker (current Luxembourgian premier) 7/1
Paavo Lipponen (former Finnish premier) 10/1
Fredrik Reinfeldt (current Swedish premier) 12/1
Guy Verhofstadt (former Belgian premier; currently an MEP) 14/1
François Fillon (current French premier) 16/1
Dalia Grybauskaitė (current Lithuanian president) 20/1
Felipe Gonzalez (former Spanish premier) 20/1
John Bruton (former Irish premier) 20/1
Aleksander Kwaśniewski (former Polish president) 25/1
Mary Robinson (former Irish president) 25/1
Anders Fogh Rasmussen (former Danish premier; current Secretary General of NATO) 33/1
Bertie Ahern (former Irish premier) 50/1
Dora Bakoyannis (former Greek cabinet minister) 66/1
Angela Merkel (current German premier) 100/1
Gordon Brown (current British premier) 100/1
Kostas Karamanlis (former Greek premier) 100/1
Václav Havel (former Czech president) 100/1
Check the present betting at PADDY POWER
It has not moved on the presidents’ odds since Miliband said he was NOT a candidate for High Commissioner. And Miliband has slipped to second for the post for which he is not a candidate! Just shows that whether one is a declared prospective candidate or not, if they’ve got it in for you … for whatever reason…
Smoke and mirrors?