Poll: No-one in Wales or Northern Ireland fancies Ed M. But elsewhere 18/19 yr-olds say “Yo, Eddie”

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    5th October 2010

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    “In a recent mingle Trend survey we asked the British public which Miliband brother would be best suited to the job of Labour leader.”

    It’s only a small poll of 500 people, taken over the period 30th September to yesterday 4th October. But still, partly because of the easy-to-view nature of the results for gender/age group/parts of the country the accompanying pie-charts at Mingle-Trend are quite intriguing. The poll shows no definite support for Ed Miliband in the UK.

    These are some samples of the results, sub-divided under three headings:  Ed Miliband – David Miliband – Don’t Know.

    EdM – DM – Don’t Know

    Total :       20%   – 29%  –  51%

    By Age:

    18 – 19:    42%      16%       42%

    20 – 29:    20        27          53%

    40-49:      13         31           56%

    Notes:

    1. Every age group of 40+ preferred David. And only 18-19 year-olds preferred Ed.
    2. In the over 50s group they were more likely to KNOW, than not to know who they wanted to win, and it wasn’t Ed. It was David by quite a margin.

    But this is the most intriguing part. Broken down by parts of the UK:

    From England

    EdM – DM – Don’t Know

    24       27           49

    _____

    From Scotland

    13         47           40

    _____

    From Wales

    0          33             67

    _____

    From Northern Ireland

    0           67            33

    _____

    Yes, that does say NIL – ZERO – for Ed Miliband from Wales AND Northern Ireland.

    Wales, the land of Neil Kinnock and Old Labourism (supposedly).  Kinnock said on Ed’s election “we have our party back”! Pity no-one told the Welsh Labour population that that’s what Ed is all about.

    And Northern Ireland? The land where David Miliband’s mentor Tony Blair secured peace after decades of turmoil.  What would any of them know about leadership?

    Seriously though, the explanation might be that the polling locations would likely have reflected the size of the population in the disparate parts of the UK.  So, England has 83% of the 61 million, Scotland 8%, Wales 5%, Northern Ireland 2%.  Fewer people would have been polled outside of England to reflect this. Though this still doesn’t explain why Ed M polled 13% in Scotland while in Wales and Northern Ireland people said – “WHO?”

    The high votes for Ed M amongst 18-19 year olds might be because they swallowed  – sorry – I mean were inspired by his “new generation” nonsense.

    I wonder how many in this youngest age group will actually bother to vote next time round? Not as many as their more astute parents and especially grandparents, I hazard.

    Mingle-Trend – article:


    No definite support for Ed Miliband in the UK

    Summary

    • 51% of Brits undecided about Ed Miliband as new Labour leader
    • 67% of participants in Northern Ireland consider David Miliband a better candidate

    New generation Labour with “Red Ed”

    On 25th September 2010, Ed Miliband, who always used to introduce himself as “the other brother” narrowly beat his brother David Miliband to become the next Labour leader. Ed Miliband is proclaiming that his “new generation” will take Labour back to power, and golden oldies like Lord Kinnock are rejoicing in his victory. However the election results suggest that almost half of the Labour party would have preferred David Miliband, who many would have liked to have seen replace Tony Blair in 2007.

    In a recent mingle Trend survey we asked the British public which Miliband brother would be best suited to the job of Labour leader. The results demonstrated that half are not sure which Miliband brother they would have chosen. More men than women are unsure about which of the brothers should lead Labour in the opposition and the age group 40-49 years are the most undecided. As far as regional differences are concerned, the Welsh are the most irresolute about the Labour leader.

    Only the 18-19 years and 30-39 years would choose Ed Miliband rather than his brother David to lead the Labour into the next phase of history. Generally the Brits would have preferred David Miliband, maybe this can be explained by the fact that he was already a minister and therefore more well-known. It is worth mentioning that 67% of the Northern Irish participants would have preferred the older brother.

    Since the election, the older David Miliband has stepped down from frontline line politics and the new era of the Labour party can begin. Ed Miliband, who is known as “Red Ed” has a difficult task ahead of him, and it remains to be seen whether he really was the best suited to the job. mingle Trend will keep you posted.

    Survey data base

    Basic population: British population from the age of 18
    Sample: 500 selected people, Survey time frame: 30.09. until 04.10
    Method: Online survey, sample


    And in case you wonder if REAL people and Internet users are two entirely different species – which I must admit I do, frequently, look at this – Weblogs – Ed Miliband wins online majority.

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    5 Responses to “Poll: No-one in Wales or Northern Ireland fancies Ed M. But elsewhere 18/19 yr-olds say “Yo, Eddie””

    1. Peter Reynolds Says:

      I really don’t buy all this highly detailed polling and analysis. I don’t think it achieves anything or provides any insight, particularly on the incredibly small samples that everyone uses. I think it’s the political/marketing world’s equivalent of derivatives, just a highly esoteric form of intellectual masturbation – and you can’t quite ever get there anyway!

      You seem to be building up a head of steam against young EdM. I’m more interested just to wait and see how he copes. I can’t wait for his first PMQs.

      I’ve been asked to speak at the One Big Smoke rally in Birmingham. It’s just four days after the Proposition 19 vote in California and at least 3,000 are expected, possibly 10,000! They want me to speak immediately after Howard Marks (Mr Nice).

      I think I am going to do it. All I can think of is Neil Kinnock. I’ve made loads of presentations to small audiences, run training courses, etc, but never had to rouse a rabble before! I’m quite anxious about how to approach it but determined…

      • keeptonyblairforpm Says:

        Well, yes, I did point out, Peter, that it was a small poll. About half the size of the usual ones by YouGov etc.

        Don’t like Ed M. No point pretending. Awful, little man – not a heightist reference – just his political nous. Missing.

        Good for you and your speaking invite. I’m sure you’ll do well. Televised?

        Why Neil Kinnock? Because you’re Welsh?

    2. Gordon Says:

      keeptonyblairforpm? Worst troll evar!

    3. Peter Reynolds Says:

      It must be Eva Herzigova – “Hello Boys”

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