Opinion Poll Watch
Comment at end
Key: ‘ppm’ = present prime minister
16th December, 2007
I didn’t bother to update this last month after the various fiascos of Northern Rock and the missing CDs, and the proxy donor business (still under Police investigation). I did write about them here – a pictures and music tale, to make it easy for all who haven’t yet got the message that the ppm has flunked it, BIG time.
But it doesn’t get any better for the ppm, does it?
Today’s YouGov poll gives the Tories a 13 point lead at 45% to Labour’s 32%. This would mean an election victory for the Conservatives with a majority of 102.
Here is one question asked of those polled:
From what you have seen so far do you think Gordon Brown
is more competent as prime minister than Tony Blair was?
Brown has been MORE competent than Blair 12%
Brown has been LESS competent than Blair 45%
Both have been equally competent 30%
Not sure 14%
Sadly the poll shows that they are both considered equally untrustworthy and that it would have made little difference to the country if Blair had still been PM.
So; way to go yet.
Quote from the Sunday Times via Oliver Kamm’s site:
Today’s YouGov poll of almost 1,500 people for The Sunday Times shows that the Tories are in their strongest position for more than 15 years with a 13-point lead. They are on 45%, compared with 32% for Labour and 14% for the Liberal Democrats. A month ago the figures were 41% for the Tories, 35% for Labour and 13% for the Lib Dems … The poll also shows an unprecedented drop in Brown’s personal ratings. At the height of the Brown “honeymoon”, in August, the prime minister had a net approval rating of 48%, the difference between those saying he was doing a good job and those saying he was doing badly. In October, when he was agonising over whether to call an early election, his approval rating was still a healthy 30%. But it dropped to minus 10% last month and is down to minus 26% this month.
I share Mr Kamm’s heartfelt feelings of, well, almost despair at the position we are now in. On Brown, he says:
‘He is a lame PM at the head of a weak parliamentary party. (It’s always graceless to claim foresight, but I never thought Brown was a plausible alternative or successor to Tony Blair, whose departure from Downing Street I intensely regret.)’
Oliver Kamm feels it from the point of view of a Labour party member; belonging to no party, I see it as a member of the public. Not only has the Labour party been let down, but, by its misguided, outrageous and negligent behaviour in dumping a sitting PM – whether you liked him or not – Labour has let the country down. In my humble opinion, Blair could have handled many of the recent problems much more lightly and competently. He’s recently had to deal with far worse than this. In fact, if he had still been in place some of these nasties might never have happened. In fact, again! … if he’d sacked Brown after the 2005 election, NONE of them might have happened.
And of course if Blair had still been PM there would have been no talk of a “bottled” general election, the issue which started to lose Brown & Labour their grip. Blair had a mandate until 2010!
Oh woe is me … is me … ! And him too, ppm.
Read the full YouGov polling report (pdf file)And it seems there are some rumblings in the jungle between Brown and David Miliband, he of the brother Ed. Something to do with Miliband being ‘ordered’ by GB/PM to tone down his EU speech.
Non? Mon dieu. Quel dommage.
12th October, 2007
TORIES LEAD LABOUR POST BROWN’S BAD WEEK
With the latest poll – Ipsos/Mori – putting the Tories 3% ahead of Labour – well, what can I say? At Conservatives 41% to 38% for Labour, with the Lib Dems trailing at 11%, this weekend will be another one full of thought and contemplation for GB/PM.
True, polls go up and down, and this is nothing like the lead Labour used to hold over the Tories under Blair, but the parties still have it all to play for.
Still, the king seems to have lost his crown somewhere along the way. If anyone finds it, please return it to its rightful owner, c/o here for safe-keeping, if you’re not sure.
5th October, 2007
POLLS NARROW – ELECTION OFF?
Opinion polls following David Cameron’s conference speech have, it would seem, put the lid on the likelihood of a November election. Three produced today indicate that it is highly likely that Brown has missed the boat on a definite win. See this report and analysis.
What’s amazed me in recent weeks is that GB/PM has been daft enough – or politically naive enough – to let this pre-election story run THIS far – without confirming or denying it. He could have stamped on it within his party at the beginning and then REALLY announced a snap election next week to parliament. As it is, Cameron is the one now holding the winning card.
And if GB/PM tries to come up with some juicy morsel next week, it will be seen as opportunist and, well, unbelievable ‘spin’ on some story or other. And how’s that for a turn-up for the books?
He evidently thought, as Tony Blair said in his 2006 conference speech – “if we can’t beat this lot [Tories], we shouldn’t be in the business of politics at all”.
Ah, but things were different, then. Blair – the election winner – was still running the shooting match; Cameron was Blair Mark II, and we were told that was NOT a good thing, and Brown looked like the steady pair of hands waiting to steer the ships to calmer waters, post Blair.
HE WHO HESITATES IS LOST
The honeymoon is now over for Mr Brown, and Mr Cameron doesn’t look quite as unlikely a PM as he did in comparison to Blair. Brown’s known tendency to hesitate over big decisions, always portrayed as strength, may in reality be his achilles’ heel.
So in this period, where the 1000 troop withdrawal tactic has backfired on Brown, where the economy might well be cooling, where a strike in the public service is stopping our post, and where the Tories have latched onto some popular (and populist) policies, do YOU expect to go to vote next month, AGAIN?
No, nor me.
UNLESS – UNLESS – GB/PM actually goes COMPLETELY mad and brings all the troops home. I mean REALLY brings all the troops home.
But, even in that scenario we will KNOW he’s lost it – and the Tories will be back in power.
Blair’s ten years will be but a blip in the British political ‘conservative’ model, ended, not by the voters, but by his party and the press. A toxic concoction.
Some legacy for Brown – to trash Blair and then Labour’s legacy.
Go for it, Mr GB/PM – I DARE you.
Just as he leaves office, June 2007, Tony Blair’s popularity level is at 39%. Lower than those of Cameron at 54% or Brown at 51%. But still better than he might have expected.Growing distrust There was also evidence of a growing distrust of leading politicians in recent months. MORI (sampled 8-10 June) asked about the trustworthiness of party leaders and compared their findings with those from September 2006 when the same question was asked. Tony Blair’s ratings were virtually unchanged during the period – 60% untrustworthy last September and 61% now. However, David Cameron’s “untrustworthy” rating had increased 17 points – from 29% to 46%, Gordon Brown’s from 39% to 49%, and Menzies Campbell’s from 22% to 33%. This page will be updated with links to current opinion polls.Sorry I haven’t been doing this recently. Too many other things to think about!Anyway, this is quite interesting – a link which comments on this recent YouGov poll May 24th – saves me analysing it.
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Adults in Britain hold differing views on Margaret Thatcher, according to a poll by YouGov. 35 per cent of respondents believe the Conservative politician is the best of the six prime ministers who have served for five years or longer since World War II.
Labour’s Tony Blair is next on the list with 21 per cent. Support is lower for Labour’s Harold Wilson and Clement Attlee, and Tories Harold Macmillan and John Major.
When asked which of these six prime ministers was the worst, Thatcher is again in first place with 31 per cent, followed by Blair with 21 per cent, and Major with 17 per cent.
28 March 2007
Ipsos MORI’s March voting intention findings, carried out face-to-face between 9-15 March amongst 1,983 British adults aged 18+, show the Conservative Party eight points ahead of Labour amongst those who say they are absolutely certain to vote, Conservative 41%, Labour 33%, Lib Dem 17%.
Of ALL respondents the figures are different. Conservative 37%, Labour 39%, Lib Dem 16%.
- Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,983 adults aged 18+ at 163 sampling points across Great Britain.
- Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 9-15 March 2007.
- Data are weighted to match the profile of the population
16 May 2007
Read the pdf file of the YouGov Sunday Times poll following Tony Blair’s Resignation Speech – 10/11 May 2007.
There seems to have been a small boost for Labour but it is hard to know whether it is because of an increase in popularity for Blair following his speech, or because it is now clear he is leaving.
The polls don’t seems that clear to me, and Brown does not come out of it particularly well.
We might only see how the two compare when one is gone and the other replaces him. And there’s the question of Iraq which in opinion polls SEEMS to rate highly as Blair’s worst decision – well around 50%, if I recall correctly. Yet, in the locals no party seems to have heard it mentioned much – although people do normally conflate local issues with national issues in local elections.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRESS? I think so. With the passing of time, and some sort of resolution and further developments, one way or another, perhaps things will look different. Not necessarily better – but different.
Anyway the UK Polling Report following this poll has some thoughts on interpreting this.
Update 4th December 2006
There’s a Telegraph poll out for 28th – 30th November, which asks this question amongst others.
Who would make the best Prime Minister? Why Brown isn’t included, I’m not sure but here it is.
Don’t Know 44%
15th September 2006 poll
I don’t know if they tell you anything or not, really, but I thought this YouGov poll, out on 15th September was also interesting. It shows that the PM is ahead of all the contenders after the failed coup. Possibly the sympathy vote, but will it increase after next week’s conference? I wouldn’t be surprised.
It can be found at http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/320
The poll page will open in a new window which you can close to get back here.