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11th August 2007
CLOUDS OF WAR ?
According to some, the whole peace search in the Middle East and the diplomatic scurrying about is no more than a cover for war. So says the London based Arab writer, Ahmed Mustafa here.
He’s not quite sure if it’s Syria or Iran in the firing line yet, or if the USA or Israel will be the main protagonists, but he thinks we are being built up to be let down. And he believes it is deliberate and already planned and agreed. And France is in on it too!
FRANCE? Didn’t think they did war.
Ah but leur homme du moment est Nicolas Sarkozy. La version 2 de Tony Blair, n’est-il pas ?
Mr Mustafa, can I ask you this?
- WHERE are they going to get the troops? Or will they just nuke ’em, (whoever they are)?
- And, how is Bush going to get out of the White House alive if he does this?
- And Blair? They won’t let him back into Heathrow!
- Apart from that – are you really saying that Blair has the power to convince the Quartet – USA, Russia, EU and UN that another ME war is a good idea?
- Or is the hand of some other entity, rather than the USA, The Quartet, or Israel being forced by the evil “west”?
Something tells me this is ‘conspiracy theory’ writ large. Or perhaps it is just confirmation that there is insurmountable suspicion, given the lengthy unrest in the region.
So, seen from here in the west, what are we to make of it? Are our leaders/envoys serious? Or are they playing a political game with the sublimation by western allies of, for example, Syria/Iran/Hamas and possibly terrorist organisations as the ONLY game in town? Are they seriously concerned about the peoples of the region?
To imagine that Blair and Bush, one just retired and the other with less than two years in place, who have already committed their countries to two costly and unpopular wars in the region, are straining at the whip to enter another military arena, seems far fetched.
But if it is to be Israel’s bag this time, then is that a different ball game?
I’ve just had a thought; since geo-politics is clearly in the mix here, and you know how dodgy THAT is, what if Tony Blair is not IN on the secret? Maybe he is being USED.
[Pic above: Blair arrives in Jerusalem 23rd July 2007]
I’ve got it … I’ve worked it out now. Are you ready for this …? Right, listen …
The Conspiracy:
The American Secret Service are planning to blow up Blair’s car while he’s out there mixing it. There are dozens of bodyguards around him these days, so it shouldn’t be difficult.
Then they’ll all make out it was Al Qaeda, or Hamas, or the Taleban, or Hezbollah or whichever terrorist group happens to be lurking around.
Horror of horrors – Bush’s best friend EVER gone! Snuffed out! PHUGHH! Just like that! No more Blue Eyes.
Well, since Americans still rate Blair at 70% popularity, the diametrical opposite of his poll ratings at home, he’s the only sacrifice that would get ’em up in arms. So that might just persuade the American public to go for another Middle East war, committing more of their troops.
But here in the UK it’d make it a lot easier for Brown to say “no” to President Bush. ENOUGH already. And the rest of the EU would happily, and sadly, support Brown.
And then there’s the other two Quartet members – the Russians and the UN. Both can be discounted. Russia for ALL sorts of reasons to do with its alliances and its own place in future ME talks; the UN because it will take forever to decide anything about sanctions, inspections etc before agreeing military action. We’ve been there before.
Too many parties; too many ifs and buts.
So it looks like Israel on her own.
Or, back to the drawing board:
PERHAPS THE POLITICIANS REALLY DO WISH TO BRING PEACE TO THE MIDDLE EAST!
So on that analysis, Blair’s not set up for political assassination yet by his own side. Thank God. I’d have nothing intriguing to write about.
Back to reality.
We either trust that politicians are not all natural born liars and warmongers or we don’t.
Me? I’m gullibility itself.
Ahmed Mustafa’s article pasted below:
Recent diplomatic activity in the region, involving international powers with vested interests, doesn’t look like a good omen.For the past two decades, such hype has always led to disastrous developments.A George W. Bush “funny” clip on YouTube says: “Fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice shame on me.” The region has been fooled many times, especially by the parties targeting it again now – Washington, London and Paris.The French under Nicholas Sarkozy are trying to “get in” with the Americans and not to leave it all to the British. Their role in Libya’s Bulgarian nurses crisis and subsequent arms deal goes hand in hand with increased involvement in Lebanon and Syria.While former British prime minister Tony Blair is working with the Israelis and Palestinian “moderates” as a Quartet envoy, the US secretaries of State and Defence toured the region after the US announced massive military aid to Israel and some “moderate” Arab regimes to stand up to Iran.The media and propaganda line for this heated activity is “Middle East Peace Process”, if you’re ready to be fooled for the hundredth time.Unfortunately, the main crisis of the region is becoming propaganda material for those seeking other ends, from Palestinian “factions” to the foreign powers, not to mention some regional players.Such a conclusion is based on previous experiences and other indicators that tell a sane person that preparations are under way for a war, whether against Iran or between Israel and Syria, preceded by war diplomacy.Two main features are really indicative: the Sharm Al Shaikh conferences in Egypt and ceremonial Israeli-Palestinian encounters. Since hosting the anti-terror summit in spring of 1996, the Egyptian red sea resort has become synonymous with emergency meetings that achieve none of their declared goals.Even the underlying aim of the 1996 summit – bolstering electoral chances of then Israeli prime minister Shimon Peres against the extremist Benjamin Netanyahu – wasn’t achieved. Peres was politically bruised by Hamas’ devastating campaign of suicide bombings.Again, in autumn 2000, Sharm Al Shaikh was the scene of another summit. This time, it was aimed at ending the intifada and for Israelis and Palestinians to reach a final peace agreement. Nothing happened.Clandestine negotiations
After driving the Iraqi army out in the Gulf War – after which American and British military presence in the region was fortified – a Madrid conference got all parties together. Nothing happened; clandestine negotiations in Oslo led to a fragile agreement two years later. The invasion and occupation of Iraq by the Americans and the British was followed by renewed calls to “settle” the Middle East; i.e. end the Palestinian conflict.
Two regional players gained in importance: Turkey and Iran. The US, EU and Russia started drawing other plans – which mostly had nothing to do with Palestinian suffering and only had to do with these countries’ regional interests and security concerns.
It’s shameful for us – the parties concerned, regional and international players and the media – to fool the people of the region again. There can be no excuses this time, as it is clear what’s being worked out.
No need to wait for Murdoch’s media to “reveal” leaked information or rather disinformation. The main people concerned, the Palestinians under occupation, are aware of all this and have become immune to it. The rest of us, in the region and worldwide, shouldn’t swallow it this time.
[Pic: Blair arrives in Bahrain, 25th July 2007]
Remember Tony Blair, as British prime minster following September 11, going on a long “war diplomacy” tour during which he made 27 official visits to the Middle East? He was talking mainly about peace, and preparing for the war against Afghanistan and Iraq. That was a typical example of “using” the core problem of the region as a cover for military action.
You can’t blame those who fell prey to illusion and were easily deceived, as the media campaign was fierce and so was the disinformation campaign.
The diplomatic flurry in the region is not aimed at solving the Palestinian problem, but is an outright ploy to cover preparation for war. So, be ready for war and a possible “peace conference” that follows to achieve nothing. War would have already achieved the set goals.
On the other hand:
THE PEACE DIVIDEND
First of all, Mr Mustafa, are politicians NOT to prepare for war? Wouldn’t that be as negligent as not having ‘prepared for the peace’ after the Iraq invasion?
Secondly, all politicians are people first. Husbands, wives, parents, sons and daughters. No sane politician wants to be remembered as a war-crazy individual. They want to go down in history as peace makers. Of course they do. What a prize – peace in the Middle East!
Especially so if, as with Bush and Blair they are bruised by bad experiences in other war zones in the region, whose resistance is linked to those they must now rescue.
President Bush is running scared of his opposition at home and even of many on his own side. He wants another war like a hole in the head. Excuse the pun
Blair is no longer Prime Minister, but he still has negotiating skills and many fences to mend. He wants a war like two proverbials. And apart from that he is no longer in a position to take us to war.
PM Brown would not, never, EVER be persuaded to send troops into another Middle East conflict. Where would he FIND the troops for a start?
War again – involving the British? Only if Britain were to be attacked first. Nothing, apart from that, not even the multiple assassination of his predeccessor AND his own British Middle East envoy AND President Bush would send Gordon Brown to battle. Brown is the military interventionist only where there is no risk.
And Sarkozy? Non, mes amis. Non, non, non. Toujours “non”.
But the western powers, and particularly Britain and the USA want and need to get some good out of the mess that is the Middle East. Although it is not all of the west’s doing it has been portrayed by some as such.
Britain handed Palestine over to the Arabs and the Jews sixty years ago and they are STILL fighting over it! Surely it would be some achievement to help others rise above their pasts? The trashing of political intent and the ulterior motive arguments have been done to death.
Can the west REALLY help? I don’t know. But they’re sure as hell going to try.
NOTE:
I’m minded to point out here that I did not mean that Brown would be relaxed or content on a personal level if Blair’s light were to be extinguished forever in such an unlikely scenario as the above. I just meant to indicate that in itself that would not be reason enough for the British people to be persuaded to rise up in arms, at this time. After all, many of them have been after that kind of final act in the Blair play for a long time.
And Gordon is the listening PM, is he not?
[This ‘Note’ is especially for my regular commenter Tony (not that one, the other one) who criticises me for being too tough on Gordon and the causes of Gordon. Happy, Tony? Sorry if I spoiled it with the last line above. But it’s TRUE! Isn’t it?]
[All the world’s a stage, and each of us plays a part.]
FURTHER OPINIONS ON THE ME PEACE PROCESS
IS THE WEST IGNORING, OR USING THE HUMANITARIAN CRISIS?
*Nicola Nasser, in his article Politics Unmercifully Trespass Humanitarian Borders in Gaza is also firmly of the opinion that there is something afoot. But he believes it is Israel which is about to make a “brutal aggression” on Gaza to overthrow Hamas, which was recently described by President Abbas as a terrorist organisation with links to Al Qaeda.The humanitarian problem is clearly of deep concern. He, as does the above writer, points to the recent flurry of Arab state meetings and international envoys and politicians in the region.
The sources he quotes believe that due to Hamas’s authority there, the international community, but in particular Abbas & Israel are determined that the Gaza population should be forced into removing Hamas through their continued ‘starvation’ and closed borders. It will not be long before Israel takes major military action, he concludes.
*Nicola Nasser is a veteran Arab journalist in Kuwait, Jordan, UAE and Palestine; he is based in Birzeit, West Bank of the Israeli – occupied territories.
The Middle East Process Scam by Henry Siegman
Excerpt:
“When Ehud Olmert and George W. Bush met at the White House in June, they concluded that Hamas’s violent ousting of Fatah from Gaza – which brought down the Palestinian national unity government brokered by the Saudis in Mecca in March – had presented the world with a new ‘window of opportunity’. (Never has a failed peace process enjoyed so many windows of opportunity.) Hamas’s isolation in Gaza, Olmert and Bush agreed, would allow them to grant generous concessions to the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, giving him the credibility he needed with the Palestinian people in order to prevail over Hamas.”
Tags: 1. Tony Blair, clouds of war, George Bush, Hamas, Iraq, Israel, legacy, Middle East Envoy, Palestinians, smokescreen, war and peace
Tony Blair 
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